Kleeman's Last Word: 10 NBA 2008-09 Season Predictions

Writer's note: This is the first of a 10-part series of top 10 lists to open the NBA Season. I will publish one each day to celebrate tip-off of this much anticipated 2008-09 season. Tomorrow: '10 Players With The Most to Prove This Season.'

Here are 10 predictions as this 82-game season begins.

1. There are no absolutions.

The next five to six championships do not belong to the Los Angeles Lakers. So Laker fans, don't start planning multiple victory parades just yet. The Boston Celtics will be contenders for the next few years but are hardly a lock to win the East or another Larry O' Brien Trophy.

These two teams are sexy picks to win their respective conferences, again, and why not?

A healthy Andrew Bynum rejoining MVP Kobe Bryant and his cast of defending conference champions would seem to vault the Lakers up a notch from their already high perch. Bynum will allow Pau Gasol to play his natural position at the four, and should Lamar Odom play nice about his discussed new role on the bench, this team can rest No. 24 for longer stretches without worrying about the collection of talent on the floor. Or does Phil Jackson have that luxury?

Odom and Vlade Radmanovic made three-fourths of the Lakers' starting front line look clueless and defenseless. Gasol shot efficiently when his teammates fed him the ball, but he did not command the rock enough and backed away from physical contact in many of the Finals' biggest moments. Jackson said in a post-game press conference after game three of the Western Conference Finals that Gasol was taking "weenie" shots.

Bryant is the best player on the planet and will surely not be the reason his team fails to win the tough West. However, he hyper extended his knee in a preseason game and will play again with a nasty pinky ailment. Bryant thus far has lucked out in the injury department, but he is approaching an age where his mind and body might not always agree.

The Celtics will try defending title No. 17 without invaluable super sub James Posey, who bolted for more money and a bigger role in New Orleans. With an impassioned and Hall of Fame caliber star trio leading the way, the Celtics will challenge for the Eastern crown again, but other formidable up and comers can beat them.

There are as many questions as there are reasons to pick them to repeat. Will Eddie House inherit anchorship of the Celtics bench, which was the finest in the NBA last season, or will it be oft-injured youngster Tony Allen energizing the second unit?

No single player will replace the championship pedigree Posey brought to Beantown, and if the players off the pine fail to make consistently great contributions, that will spell trouble for Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, who will need enough rest to avoid the injuries that come with their 30-something ages.

LeBron James and his misfit supporting cast of Cleveland Cavaliers took the Celtics to seven games, and, unlike the neophyte Atlanta Hawks, stayed competitive in every one. Dwight Howard needs to refine his primitive post game and upgrade his defensive awareness for the Magic to become a special team. Orlando is still missing the point, and Hedo Turkoglu will need to replicate a stellar season in which he earned Most Improved Player honors. I love this team's talent but question whether Mickael Pietrus' hustle, shooting and perimeter defense will be enough to catapult this team above Boston, Detroit and Cleveland.

The athletic and already impressive Sixers added premium post talent Elton Brand to join Andre Miller and Andre Igoudala. Conventional wisdom says this team will not win its conference one year after a first round exit, but a conference finals appearance would surprise no one who watched Mo Cheeks guide them exceptionally last year.

The Pistons remain a wild card, as Joe Dumars returned the same supporting cast that has lifted Detroit to six straight conference finals. But, with a green coach trying to reach an elitist core of veterans who allow arrogance to lose them games they should win, this team's streak may end.

Then, there's the Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors, who hope to squelch the soft and defenseless talk by competing with the East elite.

The Wild Western Conference is its own monster, and whichever teams emerges as its representative will have to beat multiple championship contenders along the way. Six, maybe seven teams can win this behemoth, and one injury could change the complexion of this rugged race.

The Lakers are the rightful favorites, but the New Orleans Hornets, San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets and Utah Jazz will each present formidable roadblocks. The Mavericks seem happy under new coach Rick Carlisle and the Phoenix Suns have promised fans a greater defensive emphasis with Terry Porter running the sidelines. These fading conference contenders are massively flawed, but no coach in either conference will take them lightly, and you shouldn't either.

It is never wise to doubt the Spurs, who will compete for NBA crowns as long as its three Hall of Famers stay healthy when it counts most, and Gregg Popovich and R.C. Buford surround them with the right veteran contributors. Manu Ginobili could not
do that last season, and his bum ankle might have cost his team its best shot at championship No. 5.

Who knows if Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady will every stay healthy for 82 games and the playoffs, but if they can, the addition of Ron Artest makes the Rockets as dangerous on both ends of the floor as any conference foe.

The Jazz run an efficient offense and are brimming in the physicality department, but all of that muscle adds up to a still lackluster defensive unit that allows too many layups, dunks and open jumpers. Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer should each make the All-Star team, but can they inspire all of their teammates to defend on that level come April and May? And, yes, the raucous crowds at Energy Solutions Arena can will this team to at least 30 victories, but can it improve on its garbage road record?

Who can forget the overachieving New Orleans Hornets, who won the NBA's toughest division and took the Spurs seven games with no bench and a pathetic home court advantage until after the All-Star game. Chris Paul and David West should produce even better seasons, if the injury bug stays away, but can Posey lead a still questionable second unit with no true point guard, and will Peja Stojakovic continue gagging miserably in the clutch?

Put it this way: would this be the most highly anticipated NBA season perhaps in league history if the Lakers and Celtics were guaranteed repeat championship round appearances?

2. The NBA's coaching carousel will swing again.

The monkeys at your local zoo will master quantum physics before any owner holds himself or his players accountable for that franchise's egregious mistakes. The easiest scapegoat is always the coach, and several will take the fall for the ineptness of their front offices or the incomplete and doughy rosters they did not assemble.

Gregg Popovich, Phil Jackson, Doc Rivers and Jerry Sloan can keep their jobs as long as they like. These coaching mainstays, plus the newly ring-fitted Rivers, will not lose any sleep over their employment situations.

Byron Scott, Mo Cheeks, Rick Adelman and Nate McMillan all lead promising squads and have no reason to fear the dreaded pink slip. Not yet.

The rest of the league's varied coaching crop has plenty to stew about. James Dolan and Donnie Walsh hired Mike D'Antoni to bring the fun back to New York basketball, but his deserved reputation as a coach who passes on preaching defense will hurt the embattled Knicks in the long run. That could endanger his Big Apple career in the short run, as the Knicks are far from playoff contenders, and any locker room rumbling could cripple this now annual embarrassment.

Terry Porter and Michael Curry arrived to work with already competitive rosters, but both lack substantive head coaching experience, and several of their core players need major tune-ups to avoid decimating their team's chances. Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, and Rasheed Wallace, I am staring at you.

Vinny Del Negro has a talented cast of athletes to mold, but his coaching faculty is untested, and the same group that turned on fiery Scott Skiles can wear down this rookie sideline leader.

Mark Iavaroni will suffer from an association with D'Antoni, as a coach who will not get his young players to commit to defense. Will he be around when we figure out if O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay are legit superstars and any of the support players deserve NBA paychecks? If General Manager Chris Wallace is willing to donate Pau Gasol to the Lakers and bring in the fat and indolent Antoine Walker as a supposed veteran influence, an extended stay for Iavaroni is not likely.

P.J. Carlesimo may get a fair chance because he worked with Thunder General Manager Sam Presti in San Antonio and earned the full respect of the Spurs' players. Oklahoma City's Ford Center will be loud enough to will the Thunder to a few more wins than last year, and Presti has laid out a multi-year building plan that he knows has just begun.

Nuggets management will show George Karl the proverbial door, and he will gladly oblige, if Denver falls as badly as most expect they will. His only chance is getting Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson to value defense as much as they love heaving terrible shots.

Larry Brown coached the Pistons to consecutive Finals appearances and helmed a few winners in Philly. He also floundered as badly as Isiah Thomas in New York and has exhibited impatience with young and immature players, which the Bobcats boast in spades. Michael Jordan can't draft, and because of that, Larry Brown may not want to coach this bunch mid-season.

Stan Van Gundy will get a few seasons to better Howard and his teammates. He deserves that.

Sam Mitchell often explodes in press conferences and timeouts, but his attitude has not infected his team, which remains loaded with softies and mental midgets. If the Jermaine O'Neal-Chris Bosh pairing flops, so will this guy's coaching career.

It was far easier for Mark Cuban to can Avery Johnson than to admit that his core is diseased with mentally damaged choke artists. The Mavs accomplished more under Johnson than any other coach in franchise history, and for once, this Spurs fan was afraid of them. But, after a season and a half of convincing his squad to play some defense, the players tuned him out, lost in consecutive first rounds, and he paid the price.

Forget about reprimanding Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard for folding in key moments of the playoffs. Johnson will sit behind a desk at ESPN instead of the sidelines because his former players were too chicken-hearted to put in the work required to defend and score equally well.

Coaches often pay an unfair price, but that is mostly because superstars are paid unfairly. If you are an owner or general manager needing to engineer a franchise facelift, which is easier to punish: the coach who makes a few million and whose firing might briefly excite the fanbase, or the millions-paid star who fails to carry his weight when it matters?

You will know the answer when the coaching carousel swings again.

3. Oden, Beasely and Rose lead incredible rookie class.

The 2007 NBA Draft was hailed as one of the deepest in league history, but this season's crop could easily eclipse last year's, especially since its first pick did not play a single game after microfracture surgery sidelined him for the season.

Greg Oden, Michael Beasely and Derrick Rose top most preseason Rookie of the Year lists, but there are several other worthy candidates.

• O.J. Mayo--he possesses the talent and tools to become a superstar but first needs the know-how to become a winner. The Grizzlies iso offense may berate his game, but he can still wow voters with his athletic ability and astonishing potential.
• Kevin Love--he managed an impressive preseason, rebounding and scoring to his projected ability, and wowing his teammates with his spirited attitude. He might crack the top five in voting if he complements low-post beast Al Jefferson and helps the struggling T-Wolves at least challenge for a playoff spot until the All-Star break.
• Rudy Fernandez--this Spanish star brings a sweet game, and a silver medal, to the upstart Portland Trail Blazers. He might be Oden's stiffest competition for the award. I am watching the Blazers battle the Lakers right now, and Fernandez has scored 40 percent of his team's points.

Milwaukee's Joe Alexander and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute are also project forwards to watch. They will not challenge for the award, but their development could help the Bucks quest to become a relevant playoff team again.

This draft class is loaded with future contributors and perhaps a few future All-Stars. I expect this ROY race to be one of the tightest in league history. And no, I am not making a prediction on this one. I am a coward.

4. With slumping economy, attendance will fall

Despite Commissioner David Stern's best attempts to hide the failing economy's effect on his league, there will be several, and fan attendance may take a big hit as a result.

The contending teams should continue drawing big crowds, but the lottery losers will struggle inspiring fans to care enough to spend their dwindling disposable income.

My candidates for the biggest money losers? Charlotte and Memphis are prime candidates to continue a trend of already lousy fan attendance. The apparent failure of the AI/Carmelo experiment will keep Denver fans on a short leash, Golden State might see less sellouts with Monta Ellis suffering the consequences of his moped misstep and a playoff berth in doubt, and Indiana must win enough games that its fans raise even an eyebrow.

Oklahoma City will embrace its first permanent pro sports franchise--even if it loses 80 percent of its games--better than several contending teams. The 'new team' excitement can do that for a fervent sports town.

The flailing markets will dampen Stern's game, and his kindest response, forcing teams to lower ridiculous ticket costs, which have priced out many of the true fans, seems unlikely.

5. The old guys will win again.

As I watch the Lakers trounce the young Blazers on TNT, I am reminded of the ole' Proverb "experience is the best teacher." The Blazers and many other young brethren lack enough of that to do any postseason damage.

Experience and knowing how to use it is why no sane person can eliminate the Spurs from title talk as long as Duncan and Popovich captain that sturdy ship.

The Boston Celtics secured banner No. 17 with eight major rotation players pushing 30and beyond.

Young stars can win championships or reach the Finals, provided that they display spectacular maturity and play with wiley veterans. Count Dwyane Wade, Tony Parker and the early 2000s Kobe Bryant as part of that select club. Even an early 20s LeBron James willed a team of role players and spare parts to a Finals appearance.

However, can anyone look at the players who let Bryant down in last year's Finals, and not point to youth as the primary reason?

That image of 38-year-old P.J. Brown stealing a series of key offensive rebounds from younger Lakers big men stays in my mind.

Why are we so obsessed with youth when that trait alone has won zero championships since most people reading this article have been alive?

Players and teams do carry expiration dates, but sometimes, writers tend to want to toss the milk before it really sours.

The old guys won it again in June, and here's betting that 30+ vets will play a vital role on the team that wins it this year.

6. Coach of the Year race promises intrigue equal to the MVP one.

Preseason COY lists are flush with worthy candidates. Many teams authored major offseasons that could put those coaches in award contention.

The question that would sway my vote, if I had one? Which coach brings the surprise factor?

Byron Scott's fantastic Hornet bunch should surprise no one if it wins the West. When a team wins more than 55 games, the league's toughest division and takes a four-time champion seven games, the expectations should be higher for next season.

Jerry Sloan has never won the award, a travesty for sure, but how will voters justify giving it to him this year when his Jazz exploded into the Western Conference Finals two years ago?

Rick Adelman's Rockets could write a magical season, but again, where is the surprise factor? The team won 22-consecutive games, second most in NBA history, and grabbed home court advantage in the first round with its best player in street clothes nursing a foot injury for much of that stretch run. They were arguably on the cusp of elite last year, so how much of a jump do they need to make for Adelman to deserve the hardware?

Mo Cheeks, Doc Rivers and Phil Jackson will also contend, but will another coach steal the spotlight and the award?

My dark horse pick: Scott Skiles. Either this group of chemistry-less losers will respond to Skiles' tough love and defense-first attitude or they won't. I loved the team's draft picks and the acquisition of Richard Jefferson. Now, Andrew Bogut and Michael Redd need to compete every night on both ends and prove that they are more than talented role players. Charlie Villanueva was a loose ball vacuum in the preseason, but can he exude the same hustle for 82 games?

The Bucks shipped off capricious Yi Jianlian and his passionless game to New Jersey in the Richardson trade, where he will learn further that playing like a wuss earns you nothing but scorn and doghouse visits in the pitbull-ish NBA. Skiles' two rookies seem to fit his system and style, too.

7. Picking the MVP at this point? Forget it.

Kobe Bryant is the best player in the game, but that has not been a major criterion for this award in the last few years. The previous winners have been the best or highest producing players on teams with phenomenal records. Bryant finally won his first MVP, 11 years in the making, but will face fierce competition in his bid to snag it again.

My preseason list of candidates: Bryant, Chris Paul, Paul Pierce, Dwight Howard, Elton Brand, Deron Williams, Dirk Nowitzki and Dwyane Wade.

For my take on any of those players, ask me in the comment section.

8. Most Improved Player.

Predicting this award is sillier than a Rob Schneider Oscar nomination. How can you decide who will improve most when no team has played a game yet?

Still, here's a few names who had better pop up in the contention discussion if they want to earn their expensive paychecks.

• Andres Biedrins, Golden State Warriors
• Jose Calderon, Toronto Raptors
• Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks
• Emeka Okafor, Charlotte Bobcats

And a few other names to chew on:

• Al Thornton, Los Angeles Clippers
• Roger Mason, San Antonio Spurs
• Tony Allen, Boston Celtics

For more on a few of these names, look for my upcoming 10 lists, '10 players whose development might spur their teams past expectation, and '10 players with the most to prove this season.'

9. Defensive Player of the Year
The usual mainstays will contend for this underrated honor. Hey, question: Why don't more players battle for this trophy?

The often short list of candidates is a sad indictment on the number of players who value neutralizing opposing scorers as much as scoring themselves. Teams with multiple candidates hurt those players' chances, and bad defensive teams with overrated stat stuffers may move ahead in the rankings (see Camby, Marcus).

My preseason list to watch: Ron Artest, Shane Battier, Tim Duncan, Bruce Bowen, Kevin Garnett, Andrew Bynum, Andrei Kirilenko, David West, James Posey.

If you would like to offer some candidates or want my comments on the above players, ask in the comments section.

10. Executive of the Year

This award comes down to the health of two would-be superstars in Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. If the Rockets look poised to finally win a playoff series in April, and the Artest test drive succeeds, this award is Daryl Morey's to lose.

In less than two years with the team, he landed Luis Scola, Artest, Carl Landry, Aaron Brooks and Brent Barry without surrendering any pieces considered part of the team's immediate future. Donta Greene, the key player in the Artest deal, cannot guard a tree and would likely have been nailed to the bench or enjoying a most-of-the-season D-League stint.

How does Morey fleece teams so? Count me as part of the growing group that aches to know. Maybe the recently hired Rockets GM secretly specializes in hypnosis or maybe it's dumb luck. I call it incredible use of talent from a guy who knows basketball.

If not Morey, then Ed Stefanski in Philly is an easy pick, for stealing Brand from the Clippers. Then again, many of his players were drafted by perhaps wrongfully ousted former GM Billy King.