Atlanta Braves: 5 Reasons They Can Catch and Surpass the Phillies in the NL East

For all the attention that the deep-pocketed Philadelphia Phillies have earned the past few years, their reign over the National League East isn’t carved in stone.

The Atlanta Braves not only are the Phils’ closest pursuers but also the team most capable of stopping the five-year run of division flags that fly over Citizens Bank Park.

Heading into the final week in June, the Braves are within arm’s length of the first-place Phillies, 4.5 games behind. That’s a pretty comfortable lead—for now—but Atlanta has a lot to hang its hats on in the second half of the season in hopes of chasing down the Boys of Brotherly Love.

Young Players Are Hungrier

The Phillies’ payroll of around $160 million includes seven players making at least $10 million this season. Their five-man starting rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton comprise more than 40 percent of team payroll.

Yes, that rotation is vaunted. But the fat checks doled out twice a month to this veteran team is a double-edged sword. High payroll is generally a sign of a veteran team, and the Fightin’ Phils are walking a tight line with 16 players on its current 25-man roster at least 30 years of age.

Contrast that with the Braves, whose $89 million payroll dwarfs that of their division rival and is emblematic of a younger squad. Only two players—pitcher Derek Lowe and third baseman Chipper Jones—earn at least $10 million, and their core starting rotation includes Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson and Brandon Beachy, who are each 25 or younger.

The worst thing any veteran team can do is keep a young rival hanging around, as confidence builds and the rigors of playing every day come July and August take its toll.

Atlanta has already beaten both Halladay and Lee, as well as fellow Cy Young winner Zack Greinke of Milwaukee, all in an 11-day span in May. The Braves are 5-4 against the Phils so far this season.

The two teams conclude the regular season Sept. 26-28 at Turner Field. Philadelphia would be well served to have the division race wrapped up by then.

Similar Pitching Production

Philadelphia clearly has the top five-man rotation in the game. Not only are they paid like it, but they’re proving it on the field.

Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee form the most dominant 1-2 pitching duo, combining to go 16-8 with a 2.79 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and a stellar 5.75 strikeout/walk ratio.

For all the Phillies have accomplished, they only recently surpassed the Braves as the NL’s best overall staff.

Philly’s 3.02 team ERA is a fraction better than Atlanta’s 3.07 mark, and the two are far and away the best in the league.

Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson have produced similar numbers to the Halladay-Lee combo, as the Braves top two have combined to record a 17-7 record, 2.29 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and a 2.96 strikeout/walk ratio.

Relief Is on the Way

The bullpens are also comparable. Ryan Madson (2.03 ERA, 20 saves) has done a great job filling in for the injured Brad Lidge, who hasn’t pitched all season with a shoulder injury.

Lidge is due back after the All-Star break, and his $12 million salary suggests that he will return to the closer role. He’s been inconsistent in that role, and the idea of putting him in the game with a one-run lead must upset manager Charlie Manuel’s stomach.

Braves’ counterpart Craig Kimbrel (2.84 ERA, 20 saves) has put up good numbers but has blown five save chances.

Atlanta’s trio of lefties—Jonny Venters, Eric O’Flaherty and George Sherrill—have been lights out, posting a collective 1.18 ERA.

Different Directions

Several of the Phillies’ veteran hitters are experiencing declining production, whereas many of the Braves’ core batters are young and improving.

Outfielders Martin Prado, Nate McLouth and Jason Heyward were all out of the lineup at the same time, and the Braves managed to stay afloat without those starters.

Prado, 27, was perhaps the Braves’ best player last season, hitting .307 with 15 homers and 66 RBI. He moved from second base to left field to accommodate the acquisition of Dan Uggla, and the career .302 hitter hasn’t had the kind of season the Braves’ envisioned—yet.

Heyward, 21, has scuffled for far too long given his immense talent. He hit a woeful .098 with no RBI in May before going on the D.L. with shoulder trouble. If he can stay healthy, look for a productive second half for the Atlanta-area native.

First baseman Freddie Freeman, 21, struggled out of the gate, hitting .217 in April but hit .312 in May and has started to feel comfortable hanging in against left-handed pitching.

In Philly, 39-year-old Raul Ibañez, 32-year-old Jimmy Rollins and 32-year-old Chase Utley have failed to live up to previous standards.

Utley (.263-3-15) has missed significant time three of the past five years due to injury. He missed the first six weeks of this season with patellar tendinitis, an injury that could linger and will force Charlie Manuel to give him more than an occasional day off.

Rollins (.258-6-30) is in the final year of his contract and hasn’t hit above .260 in any of the past three seasons.

Now in his third year in Philadelphia, Ibañez (.240-8-32) tore it up during the first half of the 2009 season and it seems National League pitchers have solved his approach.

Now in the final year of his deal, he is starting to lose time to rookie Domonic Brown, the Phillies’ top prospect who will almost certainly replace Ibañez next season.

Dan Uggla

Atlanta’s All-Star second baseman has experienced a frustrating start to his Braves’ career, batting .176 with an OPS of .559.

The 31-year-old averaged .263 with 31 homers and 93 RBI in five seasons with the Marlins but hasn’t come close to that in Atlanta, as he is on pace for a dismal .176-19-45 year.

All that angst can be washed away if he can get hot and carry the Braves down the stretch run into playoff contention.

Though it may be too late to be concerned about finishing with a respectable batting average, he can focus on driving in runs, which is the main reason the Braves acquired him and paid him $62 million over five years.

Uggla has always struggled against lefties (.239 career hitter) but is batting .115 against southpaws.

He’s been dropped down to sixth in the order, but if he can right the ship, could return to join Chipper Jones and Brian McCann in the heart of the lineup.