Fantasy Baseball: 4 Interesting Stats to Convince You to Buy Low on Dan Uggla

Unless you are sitting pretty in first place, the time has come in fantasy baseball to start making moves. Dan Uggla is one guy you should certainly have your sights set on.

When the Atlanta Braves gave Dan Uggla $62 million for five years, they hardly imagined him hitting .176. Luckily for the Braves, things couldn't possibly get any worse, could they?

In my mind, no. They can't get any worse. And they won't get any worse.

Here are some reasons why Uggla is sure to turn it around soon, and why you should acquire him if you are interested in looking like a genius. 

BABIP

Dan Uggla's batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is currently historically low. Worst-in-the-majors low, actually.

Uggla's current BABIP sits at .192, which is exactly 100 points below his career average. As the season goes on, and luck evens itself out, that BABIP should get a little closer to the mean, raising Uggla's .176 average.

You aren't paying for Uggla's past stats, so even if he only ends up raising that average to .220 or .230, that would mean he hits somewhere in the .270 or .280 range for the rest of the season.

Walk and Strikeout Rates

Dan Uggla's walk and strikeout rates are essentially the same as his career rates. His walk rate, at 7.6 percent, is slightly below his career average, but so is his strikeout rate, at 22.6 percent.

What this means, essentially, is that Uggla is seeing the ball fine, he is just pressing a little bit when he swings. This could possibly be the nerves of playing with a new team—nerves that continue to pile up as he continues to struggle. Or it could possibly be that his timing is off.

Whatever it is, it is a fixable problem. Uggla seems to be rolling over on the ball more than his career averages suggest, and with a couple of days off, expect the 31-year-old to turn it around. 

Swing Percentage

Another sign that Uggla is pressing is his swing rate. The second baseman is swinging at about 48 percent of the pitches he sees, which is by far the highest total in his career.

This, of course, is another fixable problem. He's not being nearly patient enough, and it will just take a few small adjustments to get Uggla back on track.  

Home Run/Fly Ball Ratio

For his career, 15 percent of the fly balls that Dan Uggla hits leave the park. For this season, that number is down to a career low of 10.3 percent. 

That number, like BABIP, is one that tends to deviate back towards the mean as the season progresses, so Uggla should expect a little bit of an increase in his power numbers. 

All of these stats, in my mind, point towards timing and pressing problems, rather than an injury problem for Uggla. It seems that he's seeing pitches just as well as he used to, but he is just slightly missing them. At 31 years of age, a regression shouldn't be expected. 

Whether it takes a couple days off or the All-Star break for Uggla to get his head right, I fully expect him to get back to his career norms.