College Football Predictions: Forecasting Each BCS Matchup
As Spring Games have come and gone and teams now have a much better feel for what they have heading into the season, the picture is becoming more and more clear for when the games count in the fall. We are one hot summer away from returning to the game we all love. When the season kicks off on Labor Day, the party can officially start.
There will assuredly be plenty of twists and turns, and most of these predictions will be way off the mark. I mean, who thought Oregon and Auburn would meet for the National Championship before the season began? Most of us rejects had Alabama, Boise State, Florida and Ohio State battling for the title, and only one of those even reached a BCS game!
The BCS is a tricky one to figure out. Because only two teams per conference, along with the six major conference winners guaranteed spots, can make the big-money spectacular, the best teams do not necessarily qualify. The SEC is usually the victim of this, as they could argue, along with the Big-12, that they have three of the top 12 teams in the country. Teams like Arkansas and Texas A&M will likely miss the big dance largely because of the conference they play in. We are sure to see a surprise come out of nowhere to make the BCS
Here are the five BCS games I predict will happen in January.
Fiesta Bowl: Florida State vs. Boise State
1 of 5
Florida State have one of the most talented teams in the country, but lack one very crucial element for success. If you think the NFL is a quarterback driven league, college football takes that theory, magnifies it by 10 and puts it on a Times Square billboard that would make Foresquare jealous.
It is simply imperative in this sport to have a good quarterback to make a run at the National Championship and I’m not entirely sold on E.J. Manuel, but the ACC is such a weak conference that the rest of the ‘Noles talent should carry them to the title game and into the BCS Party.
On the other side of the field, the Boise State Broncos will have senior QB Kellen Moore at the helm, minus star receivers Titus Young and Austin Pettis. Given the nature of coach Chris Peterson's goofy offense, the Broncos should have no problems moving the ball. Moving into the Mountain West will be an adjustment, and with games against Georgia (at the Georgia Dome on Labor Day) and TCU at home, there is a strong possibility Boise could slip up. However they have proven to be one of the most difficult teams in the country to defeat, and I don’t see them faltering in 2011.
This could be, physically, one of the biggest miss-matches on the field. However, Boise State has a knack for winning the big game against more talented teams, (see: Oklahoma, 2007) and with a few more tricks they could notch their second BCS victory in school history in 2011.
Orange Bowl: Stanford vs. West Virginia
2 of 5
Because someone has to win the Big East, enter West Virginia. Although the Bill Stewart disaster may have dampened moods around Morgantown, it did not reduce expectations. After three 9-4 seasons fans are clamoring for the club to return to the Rich-Rod days of double-digit wins and BCS appearances.
To return to the ever-returning quarterback theme, the majority of the pressure falls on junior star Geno Smith. After a solid sophomore campaign in which he completed 64.8 percent of his passes and only threw seven interceptions in 13 starts, look for Smith to light up the conference and help the Mountaineers get back to the BCS party.
Everyone is expecting Andrew Luck to have a big season and lead Stanford to the National Championship game, and while the former may true, the Cardinal may not have enough around him to get by the likes of Oregon in the Pac-10. In their meeting a year ago, the Ducks fast-paced attack torched Stanford for 52 points. Seeing that Oregon return most of their pieces, I just can’t see Stanford reaching the Rose Bowl. That said, the rest of their schedule is a joke and another 11-1 season is probably on the cards.
In this prospective match-up, Luck would have no problem carving up the Mountaineer defense. Aside from sack-specialist and athletic freak Bruce Irvin on the defensive line, West Virginia has little to attack Luck with. Stanford cruises by three touchdowns.
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Oklahoma State
3 of 5
In what would be an entertaining match-up between two contrasting styles, the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the LSU Tigers could meet at the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. LSU does not see this type of pass-happy spread offense very often in the SEC, let alone the Oklahoma State version with all-world receiver Justin Blackmon and QB Brandon Weeden.
The Cowboys are a sieve defensively, but they do replace a number of starters along the front seven who were average to begin with. They should be a major factor in the Big-12 race and will likely put up enough wins to crash the BCS.
Unfortunately for LSU Tigers fans, they have to deal with another year of the Jarrett Lee/Jordan Jefferson disaster at QB, which will probably be the reason they don’t reach the BCS Championship game. They have enough talent everywhere else on the roster, despite losing the dynamic defensive duo of Patrick Peterson and Drake Nevis.
I have no idea how this game would play out. Because Oklahoma is so talented offensively, even the Tigers defense would have problems stopping them. Expect a shootout in this one, with LSU pulling off some Les Miles 70 yard fake field-goal fake reverse throwback to the third-string left guard for the victory as time expires.
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Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin
4 of 5
In a classic Big-10 Pac-10 (now 12, I know) match-up between the two most recent losers in the Rose Bowl, Oregon and Wisconsin would bring a lot of playmakers to “The Granddaddy of Them All". Ducks Duo Darron Thomas and LaMichael James came out of nowhere last year to lead the team to an undefeated record and an appearance in the BCS National Championship Game.
To make a repeat run, they will have to do without a few of their playmakers on defense, most notably Casey Matthews, and all-reliable receiver Jeff Maehl. They have enough, though, to repeat as conference champs. Their offense is simply unguardable. Even when they make mistakes (fumbles were a problem in 2010), the Ducks keep the football moving and find a way to score points (49.3 ppg).
The Wisconsin Badgers are definitely a throwback team. A bruising running attack from multiple weapons and a physical offensive line that can wear down opponents presents a major problem for most defenses in college football, which are undersized. However the loss of their best two lineman, Gabe Carimi and John Moffitt, may result in a bit of a regression.
Thankfully for them, the Big-10 is in a major flux at the moment and aside from Michigan State, their does not to appear to be a major challenger in the conference. Another Rose Bowl birth could be in the cards for the men from Madison.
It’s hard to say if the athletes would run past the physical team in this game. In college football it’s usually the former, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Badgers could pull off an upset in this hypothetical contest.
BCS Championship Game: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
5 of 5
The best two teams in the country headed into this season are the Sooners and Crimson Tide. They are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and have a perfect blend of experience and underclassmen in important positions.
Oklahoma had a bittersweet season in 2010. Although they wrangled the Big-12 Championship back from Texas, a pair of frustrating losses after being atop the first week of the BCS standings ultimately caused their season to be judged as a failure. QB Landry Jones had some more growing pains in his second year as a starter, but appeared much more ready to handle the load as the season wore on. He has arguably the best supporting cast in the country, which is led by Ryan Broyles
The big question about Alabama surrounds the development of A.J. McCarron. Although he has all the tools to be a successful starter, we won’t know how he fares under the intense pressure of the SEC until he gets out there. Alabama has simply too much talent for McCarron to fail, however, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Another round of future first round draft picks paid their dues as freshman and sophomores in 2010 and their growth should pay dividends for the Crimson Tide this season.
This could mean the difference in the National Championship Game, however. It would be a lot of pressure on McCarron to compete with Landry Jones, who could be coming off the Heisman Trophy at this point. Although Alabama have the better cast, the losses of key personal on offense would probably catch up to them by this point. Oklahoma would win this game by 10 points.
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