Milwaukee Brewers: 5 Key Factors in the Upcoming Series with St. Louis
The Brewers and Cardinals are both vying for the top spot in the National League Central. The Brewers have played reasonably well lately but still can't catch the Cardinals, who lead by 2.5 games.
While this weekend's series may not be critical, the Brewers could really use a series win against the Cardinals, especially with Matt Holliday on the disabled list.
Here are five keys, along with analysis of each, to the upcoming series.
Key No. 1: Pitching, Pitching, Pitching
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It's no secret how important starting pitching is. Before this year, the Brewers have been mired in mediocrity because of it. This is the most important factor in determining the outcome of this series, which is why we will look at each matchup in detail.
Friday
Kyle Lohse (7-2, 2.41 ERA) vs. Chris Narveson (2-4, 4.85 ERA)
Saturday
Chris Carpenter (1-5, 4.25 ERA) vs. Zack Greinke (5-1, 4.83 ERA)
Sunday
Jake Westbrook (6-3, 5.01 ERA) vs. Shaun Marcum (6-2, 2.58 ERA)
Lohse vs. Narveson
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Kyle Lohse is having a career year at age 32. That includes his eight innings of one-run baseball against the Brewers in St. Louis earlier this year.
That's not even the scary part. Lohse has fared much better on the road than he has at home this year. His road ERA stands at 1.70, while his WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) is a tidy 0.92.
He has been more hittable in his recent starts, and the Brewers do have a good track record of hitting him. At Miller Park, Lohse maintains a 6.92 ERA and a WHIP of 1.62.
Narveson, meanwhile, had a nice start against the Cardinals, going six innings and giving up three runs. Not bad from your fifth starter.
But that's exactly what Narveson is: a fifth starter. His current numbers indicate that. He needs to avoid the big inning that has plagued him this year, which could prove to be difficult with Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman in the lineup.
In their careers, Pujols is 4-for-12 with two home runs and five walks against Narveson, while Berkman is hitting a robust .400.
Of all the games this weekend, this may be the toughest to win. The Brewers need to get to Lohse early and often.
Carpenter vs. Greinke
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An intriguing matchup of big-name pitchers with mediocre statistics. Both pitchers have been better lately, with Carpenter allowing three runs or less in his last four starts. Similarly, Greinke has allowed three runs or less in his last three starts.
Carpenter has not been good on the road this year and in 11 career starts against Milwaukee holds a surprising line of 4.87 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
Greinke hasn't exactly dominated St. Louis either. In four career starts with Kansas City, he holds a 4.15 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP.
Both pitchers have the potential to dominate the entire game, so this could be the most exciting game of the series.
Look for Rickie Weeks to be an X-factor, as he is 4-for-7 with two home runs against Carpenter.
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Westbrook vs. Marcum
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Anything can happen, and that's part of what makes baseball great. The statistics below are too small of a sample to get a good understanding of what should happen. Based on overall numbers and logic, this is a game the Brewers must win.
In only two career games against Milwaukee, Westbrook has been outstanding with a 1.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. But Westbrook has definitely been more hittable than that throughout his career. He makes a living by getting ground balls, so hopefully the Brewers aren't swinging for the fences the whole game.
As good as Marcum's numbers suggest he's been, he has a 4.03 ERA at home. However, he has never pitched against St. Louis, which could very well work in his favor.
Key No. 2: Bullpen
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The Brewers will be better off if these games are decided by starting pitching.
Despite Ryan Franklin's struggles and the merry-go-round closer situation that ensued afterwards, Cardinals manager Tony La Russa seems to have found stability in setup man Eduardo Sanchez and closer Fernando Salas.
Eduardo Sanchez: 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 33 K's in 27.2 innings
Fernando Salas: 1.88 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 30 K's in 28.2 innings
The Brewers' late-inning relievers have been a stark contrast to those numbers, as they have not only been hittable but have allowed too many walks as well. Kameron Loe and John Axford definitely are not performing like Sanchez and Salas.
If bullpens become a factor, the Cardinals definitely have the edge.
Key No. 3: Big Hitters
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Instead of Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh, I would argue the Brewers and Cardinals each have their own version of the Big Three.
The Brewers have Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Rickie Weeks, while the Cardinals have Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday. Fortunately for Brewers fan (and pitchers), Holliday will be out for about another week with an injury.
The Brewers' Big Three went a combined 4-for-34 in St. Louis earlier in the season. The Cardinals' Big Three did not fare much better in that series, going 5-for-27.
That brings us to who is hot right now. It's safe to say Fielder and Pujols are two of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. Braun and Berkman are not far behind. That begs the question: Who else will step up?
Rickie Weeks?
Corey Hart?
Colby Rasmus?
Yadier Molina?
It's anybody's guess.
Key No. 4 Coaching: La Russa vs. Roenicke
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It's hard to compare managers when one of them has over 30 years and 4,999 games to his credit while the other is in his rookie season.
As a result, the managers are a bit different. Tony La Russa tends to play matchups, especially with pitching and his bullpen. He does it so often that it is almost to a fault. He is notorious for batting his pitchers in the eighth spot in the lineup in hopes the No. 9 hitter can add another baserunner when Albert Pujols comes up to the plate.
Ron Roenicke's calling card this year seems to be shifting his defense, being aggressive on the basepaths and trusting his pitchers perhaps too much by leaving them in despite their struggles. He has drawn a fair amount of criticism, and his results have been mixed.
Each manager's quirks and style can be beneficial in their own way, but given the history of success, La Russa has to have the edge in making in-game decisions and giving umpires an earful.
Key No. 5: Defense
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St. Louis has the edge on defense. The two teams may be close at many positions, but the Brewers' lack of range and poor throwing at shortstop and even more so at third base definitely tip the scales in favor of the Cardinals.
Presumably, Ron Roenicke will sit Casey McGehee at least once in the upcoming series. Regardless, the Brewers will have to play sound defense and do all the little things correctly.
Turning double plays, hitting the cutoff man, throwing the ball to the right base and overaggressive baserunning can easily cost the Brewers a win in this series. They need to stay focused on every play.
Summary and Prediction
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While the Brewers and Cardinals play each other eight more times in August and four more times in September, it's important for the Brewers to stay close in the standings.
The Brewers need to take two out of three games from the Cardinals, if nothing else for morale and salvaging their home stand.
How can they do it when they appear overmatched in several areas?
Let's hope the adage that pitching wins championships holds true, specifically starting pitching.
Predictions
Friday: Cardinals win 8-4
Saturday (the true wild card game): Brewers win 4-3
Sunday: Brewers win 5-2
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