2011 NFL Free Agency Speculation: Stock Up/Stock Down for Top 20 Free Agents
The NFL lockout has stalled the 2011 NFL free-agency market for some time now, but recent private talks between the owners and the players have generated the first true sense of optimism since the beginning of the lockout.
Thus, with the lockout drawing to a close (cross your fingers and knock on wood, please), it's worthwhile to check the stock on the top free agents as the market could open any time.
So let's check the free-agent stock market and find out who is worth the investment.
Erik Frenz is the co-host of the PatsPropaganda and Frenz podcast. Follow Erik on Twitter @erikfrenz.
DeAngelo Williams
1 of 20
Stock down
Williams is only 28 years old, so there's reason to believe he could make a strong return after ending 2010 on injured reserve with a mid-foot sprain. At his age though and with the history of running backs and durability as well as endurance after a long history of high carry numbers, there's reason to believe he might have hit his peak.
That peak would be his 2008 season, in which he had 1,515 yards, 18 rushing touchdowns and a preposterous 5.5 yards-per-carry average.
Williams may suffer not only from the injury that kept him out most of 2010 but also from the trend throughout the league of a two- or three-headed rushing attack. Many teams may not be willing to fork over big bucks anymore for that big-time back.
Ahmad Bradshaw
2 of 20
Stock up
Put it this way. If I'm running an NFL franchise, and I need a running back in free agency, Ahmad Bradshaw is the only one I want to go after. The knock on him is his inability to protect the football, losing six fumbles last year. Besides that, he's a powerful runner with great quickness to complement that.
He had his best season by a landslide in 2010, with 1,549 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns, all of them rushing. What's more, with only 529 career carries, he doesn't come with the baggage that some other running backs come with.
That being said, he's still probably at his best in a back-by-committee system.
Darren Sproles
3 of 20
Stock up
Sproles is one of the best utility players in the game. He's been warmly referred to as the "lightning bug" for his small frame, his quickness and that lightning bolt on either side of his helmet. That logo could change this offseason, and there are plenty of teams that could use him.
His return numbers were slightly lower than we're used to seeing out of him, but the Chargers struggled mightily on special teams last year. He also failed to return a kick or punt for a touchdown for only the second time in his career, and the first time since his rookie year.
Still, he averaged 5.3 yards per carry last year, albeit in spot duty behind Ryan Mathews and the emerging Mike Tolbert. He also caught more balls last year than he has any other year in his career.
His versatility alone will make him a huge asset to any team that is willing to fork over the cash for his services.
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Ronnie Brown
4 of 20
Stock down
Ronnie Brown was the immediate beneficiary of the Wildcat offense and was the biggest sufferer when opposing defenses figured out how to stop it.
None of this even touches on his history of injuries. In his six seasons, he has only played a full season twice. One of those seasons came last year, but at almost 30 years old, chances are good he'll miss some time again in the near future.
He played in an additional seven games in 2010 as opposed to 2009 and had 53 more carries, but he only ran for 86 more yards and even dropped in touchdowns from eight to five. Even scarier is his drop in yards per carry, from 4.4 all the way to 3.7.
Santonio Holmes
5 of 20
Stock up
Santonio Holmes may just be the best closer New York has seen since Mariano Rivera first suited up in pinstripes. In three consecutive games, Holmes had a big catch to either seal the game or to put the Jets in position to do so.
Teams must proceed with caution, though, and remember that Holmes suffered from character problems while in Pittsburgh. He had to serve a four-game suspension for gun possession, part of the reason the Steelers traded him away for just a fourth-round pick.
His production speaks for itself, though. With a new team, he was on pace for respectable numbers even by comparison to those he posted with long-time comrade Ben Roethlisberger. It's clear that just about any team could benefit from adding a weapon the magnitude of Holmes.
Braylon Edwards
6 of 20
Stock up
Edwards was a headache throughout his tenure in Cleveland, with just one breakout season to speak for (2007). He is still causing problems in New York (go figure), as he was charged with DUI shortly after the beginning of the 2010 season.
But man, can he stretch the field. His 17.1 yards per reception is evidence to that. He developed substantial rapport with Mark Sanchez over the course of last year too and had the second-most catches of any player on the team. Of all the Jets free agents, Edwards should be one of the bigger priorities.
His stock is interesting, because he would be a great fit for the right team but a terrible fit for the wrong one. It just so happens his current team is probably his best option.
Plaxico Burress
7 of 20
Stock down
Well, he's out of jail. His stock is up in that regard, at least compared to where it was.
Two years in prison wasn't enough to keep Michael Vick down and out for good, but Burress' skills were diminishing even before his arrest. Through 10 games in 2008, he only had 35 receptions for 454 yards at a 13-yard clip and four touchdowns. If he had kept pace, those numbers would have been by far the lowest of his career.
He will be 34 years old by the start of the 2011 season, so there's hardly enough time for him to get his wits about him, much less to make a resurgence like Vick. Inevitably, some team will take a chance on him. However, with his age and character risks in consideration, it would be a big chance.
Randy Moss
8 of 20
Stock down
Character concerns. Age. He's Randy Moss.
These are three solid reasons to pass up on Moss for most teams.
He had 50 touchdowns in three-and-a-quarter seasons with the Patriots but tailed off at the end of his time in New England all the way through tumultuous short stays with both the Minnesota Vikings and Tennessee Titans.
Sure, the intrigue of his past will probably be enough to encourage someone to sign him. It's fair to say, though, that whichever team signs him better be sure they know which Randy Moss they're getting.
Terrell Owens
9 of 20
Stock down
Age and locker room dissention have led to Owens' stock plummeting. Teams that were just one playmaker away from a deep run into the postseason have taken the chance on Owens time and time again, but only once has he delivered by helping a team make it to the big game. Ironically, Owens missed the entire postseason except the Super Bowl that year.
Owens had a phenomenal year statistically, especially for a 36-year-old receiver. It was another checkered year in terms of team chemistry, though, and he didn't hesitate to throw his coaches under the bus when asked what the problem was with the Bengals.
And to think he had done so nicely for himself in terms of those character concerns in his one-year stay in Buffalo. Also remember that the Bengals were the only team that showed even the slightest bit of interest last year, and although he had a solid year on the field, his actions off the field probably didn't help his case.
Matt Light
10 of 20
Stock down
At 33 years old, Matt Light's best years are behind him. For years, people have commented that he gets beat off the edge by speed rushers (though sometimes this is a bit overstated). Why, then, would a team take a chance on Light?
This is even more true when you consider that Matt Light had one of the worst years of his career in 2010, allowing 10 sacks on Tom Brady of the 25 sacks taken by the future Hall of Fame quarterback.
Light wouldn't be more than a stopgap for a left tackle of the future, and for the money he might command on the open market, one has to wonder whether he's worth it.
Carl Nicks
11 of 20
Stock up
Interior offensive linemen rarely get the love they deserve, but the fact remains: The Saints have had one of the best offenses of the past two years, and that is thanks in large part to the interior of their offensive line. Drew Brees is a pretty short guy at just 6' flat, but his ability to step up in the pocket and make throws is vastly underrated. That is thanks to his great interior linemen.
The Saints also had a top 10 rush attack in 2009.
Interior offensive linemen aren't given a great deal of credit, because they aren't the ones protecting the edges against those glorious pass rushers, but football is very much a team sport. A weak offensive interior can easily be exposed, and a team in need of better protection inside could benefit from his services.
Cullen Jenkins
12 of 20
Stock up
All 3-4 defensive linemen are at a higher premium than ever. Teams are converting to the 3-4 alignment left and right. The biggest challenge of building a new defensive front is finding the right personnel. It doesn't help, though, when the personnel doesn't want to play in the new defensive front (I'm looking at you, Albert Haynesworth).
Jenkins has played in a 3-4 system for the past two years. His seven sacks in 11 games are a testament to his impact on the defensive line. A team looking for a solid pass-rushing and run-stuffing defensive end for their 3-4 system will likely fall in love with Jenkins.
Oh, and did I mention he has a Super Bowl ring? Free agents hot off a Super Bowl win are usually a hot commodity, and Jenkins should be no different.
Mathias Kiwanuka
13 of 20
Stock up
There are always teams in the market for top-flight pass-rush talent. Not only that, but most teams would be jumping at the opportunity to acquire someone with the versatility of Kiwanuka. He has played both defensive end and Sam linebacker in the Giants 4-3 scheme.
He had a monstrous start to the season with four sacks and a forced fumble in the first three games, but a herniated cervical disc in his neck forced him onto injured reserve. Fortunately for Kiwanuka, it's not an injury to a body part that will severely hinder his explosive style of play, though his full return to health is certainly important for the longevity of his career and for purposes of staying healthy.
Shaun Ellis
14 of 20
Stock down
Many defensemen have benefited from the blitz-happy defense Rex Ryan runs. Ellis figured to be one of those players, but at 34 years old, Ellis has only just now begun to show signs of slowing down. He gave the Patriots nightmares in the divisional round of the 2010 playoffs, but he has slowly declined in each of the past three years after a monstrous eight-sack season in 2008.
With half the league now populated with 3-4 defenses, there's little doubt that Ellis will find a home with a suitor at a reasonable price. The only question is, how much can that suitor expect to get out of him at 34 years old with his best years clearly behind him.
Paul Posluszny
15 of 20
Stock up
Posluszny is probably the most polarizing figure in free agency this year. Football Outsiders has taken an interesting look at linebackers over the past few weeks, and has revealed that while Posluszny doesn't miss many tackles, he makes them pretty far from the line of scrimmage.
This may tell you something about Posluszny, but it may say just as much about the Bills defense as a whole. Posluszny isn't your big-time playmaker, but he won't let too many big plays get past him, either.
A lot of defenses could benefit from a solid quarterback like Posluszny, and he could benefit from some consistency in scheme, too. It might help him if the team he lands with doesn't switch from a 3-4 to a 4-3 and vice versa every other year.
Ernie Sims
16 of 20
Stock down
In terms of sack totals, Sims was nearly as productive in one season with the Eagles as he was in four seasons with the Lions. That may be attributed to the Eagles' propensity to blitz, but the raw talent has always been there with Sims. I don't think he would have been a first-round choice if not.
Despite that, he fell off the page at times last year. Would a team be willing to pay top-end money to a guy who doesn't make a big impact? Even in what will be a zany free-agent market, my guess is no.
The Eagles gave up very little to get him, and likely won't lose too much sleep over losing him in free agency. He will land with another team and probably as a starter, but he might have a limited impact if any at all.
Nnamdi Asomugha
17 of 20
Stock up
There are a lot of free agents to be had this offseason, but Asomugha might be the biggest name of them all. His strongest season came in 2006 when he had eight interceptions and a touchdown.
Since then, he has logged three interceptions in four seasons combined. That might sound like a lack of production, but it's universally accepted that he's shutting down one side of the field from even being thrown to. That is evidenced by three Pro Bowl selections and two first-team All Pro selections in that four-year span.
A team needing a shutdown cornerback needs to consider Asomugha long and hard, but the asking price may be driven through the roof by teams such as the Cowboys and the Redskins, both of whom could use a defensive back and both of whom would be willing to overpay for a player of Asomugha's magnitude and star power.
Antonio Cromartie
18 of 20
Stock up
This is the fifth big-time free agent that played for the New York Jets last year. That should tell you something about where they're at right now. They have some serious decisions to make in terms of who to keep and who to allow to walk away. But I digress.
After a turbulent stay in San Diego, Antonio Cromartie couldn't have begged for a smoother landing than he had with the Jets. As a result, he's now considered one of the top free-agent cornerbacks on the market.
Of course, this can be partially attributed to the blitzing defense of Rex Ryan and their ability to create intense pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Make no mistake about it, though, Cromartie will likely find a high bidder in what should be a whacky free-agent market.
Ike Taylor
19 of 20
Stock down
If ever there was evidence of a cornerback that benefits from the talent of the front seven, Taylor is it. He has great long speed but is exposed time and time again on underneath routes and for a lack of elite change-of-direction quickness.
The Steelers really can't afford to lose him, though. He's the best cornerback they have, and losing him would mean a starting duo of Bryant McFadden and William Gay. Not exactly a duo that instills a lot of confidence, but the Steelers have been proving for a bit that they can get it done with slightly above average talent at cornerback as long as they maintain that talent in the front seven.
Still, a team that doesn't have that level of talent in the front seven might regret spending the big bucks on Taylor.
Eric Weddle
20 of 20
Stock up
Nothing stands out about Weddle in terms of his physical ability, but he has a very high level of field awareness. After all, he has either led the team or been second in tackles the past three years running. This includes a whopping 125 tackles in 2008, his first full year as a starter.
He makes big plays too. In four years, he has six interceptions and four sacks. He's not exactly on pace to be the next Rodney Harrison, but there's a great deal of versatility to be had in a guy like Weddle.
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