College Football 2011: Predictions for BCS Bowl Matchups
Ah, I can see it now.
The smell of fresh-cut grass, thousands of fans cheering, autumn breezes whispering in your ear...
And Kenny Chesney's "Boys of Fall" continuously playing on the radio.
You'll be sporting your alma mater's cap and jacket, sitting two feet from the television and asking your girlfriend to hand you another beer.
Or maybe you'll be at the game coaching up the players from the stands.
Either way, the thought of football season just makes me ecstatic and leaves me jumping for joy (not literally—well, maybe).
Unfortunately, the college season is still a few months away. This leaves us with one thing to do.
Talk about it anyway.
That's what us sports fans do best, right? We defend our favorite teams and players—even if they're awful—and we argue our point of view, even if we're wrong.
And most of the time, we're wrong.
So with this being said, why not make some assumptions for the nearing season? They may be a little out there (whose aren't?) but here are my predictions for the 2011-12 BCS bowls.
The Orange Bowl: Florida State versus Cincinnati
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The Florida State Seminoles versus the Cincinnati Bearcats.
Why, you ask? I'll tell you.
Florida State returns eight starters on offense and eight on defense. It loses quarterback Christian Ponder to the NFL draft (Vikings) and two four-year starters on the offensive line. Mister Alexander and Kendall Smith are two big-time linebackers that will not be coming back for the Seminoles in 2011.
So how do you replace these players?
You reload.
E.J. Manuel will take the helm as the new starting QB. In 2010, he completed nearly 70 percent of his passes for 861 yards and four touchdowns. The 6'4" junior is a dual-threat athlete that will beat you through the air or the ground. He'll have senior receiver Bert Reed to throw the ball to—a very reliable flanker with great hands and the ability to make plays.
The ground game will be improved with the same trio of backs returning for 2011. Chris Thompson, Ty Jones and Jermaine Thomas combined for 1,863 yards and 17 touchdowns last season.
They look to improve those statistics.
The entire Seminole secondary will be back for more this season, giving FSU another reason to prove why it is ranked in the preseason Top 10.
Now on to the Bearcats.
Butch Jones may be on the hot seat already after a rocky 4-8 first year, but expectations are high in Cincinnati.
The Bearcats return seven starters on offense, including quarterback Zach Collaros and running back Isaiah Pead. They also bring back all 11 starters on what was a very young defense.
With an improved offensive line, Collaros should be back to his old form—shredding defenses with his cannon-like arm and lightning-fast speed. Pead will look to get more carries as he averaged 6.6 yards per attempt last season.
With a more experienced defense, the 'Cats should be back in contention for a depleted Big East conference. There's no reason they can't win it either.
My prediction for the Orange Bowl:
Florida State: 41
Cincinnati: 27
The Sugar Bowl: Alabama versus Nebraska
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This one isn't too surprising.
Alabama loses quarterback Greg McElroy, standout wide receiver Julio Jones and Heisman Trophy-winning running back Mark Ingram.
But it returns 10 monsters on defense.
If the Crimson Tide can find a solid QB to lead the offense, which most likely will be sophomore A.J. McCarron, they should be good to go for another stellar season.
Even if they don't, a defense that allowed just 13.5 points per game last season will keep them on their feet.
The Huskers are coming off their first back-to-back 10-win seasons since 2000-01.
They're looking for a three-peat.
However, questions do arise for the offense.
The Big Ten is known for its power running game, which would work out great for last year's Nebraska team, which averaged just under 250 yards per contest. That formula of pounding the ball and playing defense is missing some big names this year; three starting offensive linemen and power back Roy Helu have departed.
Taylor Martinez, the outstanding freshman quarterback from a year ago, comes back for his sophomore season, and his physicality will try to blend in with the smash-mouth Big Ten.
The defense brings back an outstanding (and scary) defensive line. Opposing offenses will have a hard time running the ball on defensive tackle Jared Crick's brick wall.
This won't be the same Nebraska squad we saw in 2010, but it will find a way to play smash-mouth football and win ball games.
Bo Pelini has implemented a winning attitude, and it will continue to drive the Cornhuskers to a second-place finish in the Big Ten and a BCS appearance.
My prediction for the Sugar Bowl:
Alabama: 28
Nebraska: 13
The Fiesta Bowl: Texas A&M versus Stanford
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Here you have the Big 12 runner-ups versus the Pac-12 runner-ups.
The Texas A&M Aggies should have one of the highest-scoring offenses in 2011.
The red-hot Aggies rode a six-game winning streak into last year's Cotton Bowl, including victories over Big 12 powerhouses Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas.
All-Big 12 running back Cyrus Gray is back for next season. He ran for 938 yards and 10 touchdowns in seven games after Christine Michael went down.
Former receiver Ryan Tannehill replaced quarterback Jerrod Johnson during the same week, passing for 1,638 yards and 13 touchdowns.
All-Big 12 receiver Jeff Fuller is back for his senior season. The 6'4" Aggie caught 72 balls for 1,066 yards and 12 touchdowns last year.
This team will be extremely balanced in '11, possessing the explosiveness needed to win the Big 12.
With 18 starters back in the mix, this team has a nice shot.
The Stanford Cardinal blew up for a 12-1 record in 2010, thanks to a little luck on their side.
Andrew Luck, who most thought would have been the No. 1 overall pick in the draft over Cam Newton, hammered the scoreboard with 3,338 yards passing and 32 touchdowns. His team scored over 40 points a game.
However, he'll be a bit empty-handed in 2011.
The Cardinal lose the majority of their offense—fullback Owen Marecic, go-to receivers Ryan Whalen and Doug Baldwin, tight end Konrad Reuland and offensive linemen Andrew Phillips, Chase Beeler and Derek Hall.
Stanford also finds itself missing six starters on defense, but the secondary will stay intact and looks to improve from a solid '10 season.
Head coach Jim Harbaugh left to coach the San Francisco 49ers in January. He lifted the Stanford Cardinal from the bottom percentile of the Pac-10 during his stay, taking them from a 4-8 record in 2007 to 12-1 in 2010. Harbaugh compiled an overall 29-21 record.
My prediction for the Fiesta Bowl:
Texas A&M: 33
Stanford: 24
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
The Rose Bowl: Oregon versus Ohio State
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An unlikely rematch of the 2009-10 Rose Bowl.
The only reason I don't have the Ducks in the national championship is because of their Week 1 matchup against the LSU Tigers. I think Les Miles is going to have a very good team this year and will have his squad ready to break some beaks.
I believe Oregon will then ride an 11-game winning streak into the Rose Bowl.
Returning Heisman finalist LaMichael James and junior quarterback Darron Thomas should have no problems putting points on the board.
It just won't come as easily.
The Ducks lose three starting offensive linemen—huge keys to the offense's success in 2010. They also will be missing receivers D.J. Davis and Jeff Maehl, who combined for 1,546 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Oregon's fast-paced offense will still get the job done, but it won't be as effecient as it was last season.
The Ducks scored an average of 54.7 points in their first nine games last year. However, teams began to figure them out (somewhat), as they slowed down for 29.8 in their final four.
Now let the bashing commence.
Players Terrelle Pryor, DeVier Posey, Daniel "Boom" Herron, Solomon Thomas and Mike Adams were given five-game suspensions beginning in 2011 for selling awards, gifts and university apparel, as well as receiving improper benefits in 2009.
Columbus will indeed miss them the first half of the season.
But not too much.
Freshman phenom quarterback Braxton Miller is expected to take control of a disoriented Buckeyes offense.
With shifty backs Jordan Hall and Jaamal Berry behind him, he shouldn't have to put everything on his shoulders.
Ohio State returns only four starters on defense, but the Buckeyes D has held the opponent to an average of 14.0 points per game during the last nine seasons, so I figure it will still be exceptional.
The reserves will carry the Buckeyes and keep them into contention until the lost boys return from suspension.
From there, everything will click.
This is all speculation, of course. Pryor is still being investigated by the NCAA and could end up not playing a down for Ohio State in 2011. But I can only work with what I have, so until guilty, he's still on the roster.
However, the Ducks will be looking for revenge.
My prediction for the Rose Bowl:
Oregon: 31
Ohio State: 27
The BCS National Championship Game: LSU versus Oklahoma
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Here it is—the whole shebang, the big game, the best for last, No. 1 versus No. 2.
The national championship will take place at the Louisiana Superdome this season.
Okay, so LSU loses key assets in Patrick Peterson, Kelvin Sheppard and Drake Nevin—three huge hits—but it will be returning most of its essential starters on both sides of the ball.
Sixteen, to be exact.
Nine players are coming back to play for Les Miles' offense. This includes four of five members of the offensive line, both starting receivers, tight end Chase Clement, fullback James Stampley and quarterback Jordan Jefferson (who may or may not be the starter in 2011).
Quarterback play was quite the problem in 2010. However, junior college transfer Zach Mettenberger could step in right away as the team's starter. He passed for 2,688 yards and 32 touchdowns and had an 11-1 record for the Butler Grizzlies.
Steve Kragthorpe was was recently hired as LSU's offensive coordinator and could spice things up a bit for an offense that underachieved last year.
Louisiana State lost a big-time tailback in Stevan Ridley to the NFL.
But freshman (now sophomore) Spencer Ware stepped in with 175 yards off 24 carries with a touchdown. He also caught 10 balls for 101 yards and threw a touchdown pass against Auburn, showing his amazing versatility. He will most likely receive the bulk of the carries in the upcoming season.
The Tigers also bring back what was the No. 1 passing defense in the SEC.
Now on to the Sooners.
No surprise here.
Picked by most as the favorites to win the national championship this year, Oklahoma undoubtedly has a lot of expectations to meet.
I believe it'll do so in style.
It returns 18 starters, including Heisman hopeful quarterback Landry Jones and senior receiver Ryan Broyles on offense.
Jones passed for an incredible 4,718 yards and 38 touchdowns in 2010.
What's even more incredible is he'll most likely surpass those numbers in '11.
He'll have to with the loss of running back DeMarco Murray. Roy Finch is expected to replace Murray. He took 85 carries for 398 yards and two scores during his freshman season.
This is the only question mark for the Sooners come fall, and I'm sure they'll have it all figured out.
Not only do they have most of America's vote, but they have mine as well.
My prediction for the BCS National Championship Game:
LSU: 20
Oklahoma: 34
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
