2011 Fantasy Football Predictions: Top 5 Point Producers at Every Position
Football.
You miss it don't you? The smell, the excitement, that feeling you get a minute before your favorite team is about to play?
Unfortunately, those Sundays aren't going to be around for a while. Also unfortunately, our favorite league consists of a bunch of money hoarding jerks who don't care about their fans. But let's move on from that for a second.
I'm talking about the ultimate of all competitions. I'm talking about camaraderie, trash-talking and backstabbing all combined into one: Fantasy Football.
Forget about the lockout. Forget about the fact that instead of working out and getting better, your teams' best player is probably munching on a double cheeseburger or tweeting himself into Guantanamo Bay (Rashard Mendenhall we are looking at you).
Let's talk about the stuff that actually matters. Who are the five best fantasy players at every position and why. Let's jump right into it.
[By the way, I am using ESPN standard scoring]
Quarterbacks: You Can't Go Wrong
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With ESPN's scoring system, Quarterbacks finished with 10 out of the top 11 scorers in Fantasy Football last year (Arian Foster being the odd one out—he finished first). This tells us two things:
1) Arian Foster was SO much better than all of the other Running Backs.
2) You really can't go wrong with any of the top 10 Quarterbacks.
Having said that, let's try and pick a top five.
5. QB: Phillip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
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Rivers played the first 13 weeks of the 2010 season without his top wideout, Vincent Jackson. Although Jackson had only a minor impact upon his return (besides for his monstrous 5-112, 3 TD game), a full season with Rivers is sure to positively impact Rivers' numbers.
Unfortunately for Rivers, two of his favorite targets, Legedu Naanee and Malcom Floyd, are without contracts for next season and are unlikely to return.
On the flip side, Rivers' preferred target—Antonio Gates—is back to full health, and ready to wreak havoc on opposing defenses again.
Rivers is one of my favorite QB's in the league to watch, because he is a fearless leader and a fearless thrower. What I mean by fearless thrower is that he is always willing to throw the ball down the middle of the field. Only Drew Brees does it as often as him.
Still, Rivers has got to be a little more careful with the ball (last year he was a little more erratic than normal, most likely because Gates and Jackson were out). Regardless, he will be among the top five or six fantasy players at the QB position.
4. QB: Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts
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The most consistent and dominant quarterback of the last 10 years (and that is coming from a Patriots fan), Manning had a pretty awful year last year for his standards. The 4,700 yards passing was fantastic, but the interceptions were killer. At one point, he had 11 picks in three weeks!
With a healthy Dallas Clark, a healthy Austin Collie (for now), and a revamped offensive line, Manning should get back to being a top of the line Fantasy Quarterback—not that last year was too shabby, as he finished fourth among QB's.
He might not be the guy you want leading your team in a playoff game, but when it comes to the regular season, almost nobody is better than Peyton Manning.
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3. QB: Tom Brady, New England Patriots
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A surefire Hall-of-Famer, Brady was flat out ridiculous last season. His 36-4 TD:INT ratio was possibly the best of all time, and his streak of passes without an interceptions was record breaking.
Although I don't expect Brady to get that lucky again (there were about three or four easy interceptions that were dropped), there is no reason to expect the yardage and TD's to go down this year.
With new offensive tackle/man-child Nate Solder, Brady will be as comfortable in the pocket as ever. Look for another huge year from the two-time Super Bowl MVP.
2. QB: Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles
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One of the harder decisions in this article, choosing between Vick and Rodgers is almost impossible.
On the one hand, you have a physical freak who can do it with his arm (21-6 TD:INT ratio) and legs (9 rushing TD's), and on the other hand you have a QB who is probably the most well rounded in the league when it comes to throwing ability and had one of the greatest postseasons in NFL history last year in his march to a Super Bowl win and Super Bowl MVP.
I chose Rodgers for one simple reason: health. Vick is a runner. Being a runner includes getting crushed by linebackers that are stronger than a brick wall, and getting hammered by lineman that are bigger than your local grocery store. He missed a few games with a rib injury last year, and who knows what will happen this year?
With your number one quarterback, you don't want someone who is taking off downfield looking for punishment. You want the guy with the golden arm.
1. QB: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
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Super Bowl winner. Super Bowl MVP. Threw 28 TD passes, and ran for 4 more.
And he did it all without a running back.
Ladies and Gentleman, here is your number one QB. There are not enough words to describe how dominant Rodgers was in the playoffs. He didn't play that well against the ferocious Chicago Bears defense, but in his other three games, Rodgers was unstoppable.
With one of the most banged up teams in the league last year, Rodgers still managed a great season. I expect him to build on his unreal playoff run and take over the number one spot from Michael Vick this fantasy year.
Running Backs: There Is Arian Foster, and Then There Is Everyone Else
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When it comes to Fantasy Football, we all know which position is king: running back. Right?
Well, not really. Using ESPN's standard points system, it is Quarterback who is now king. With all of the splitting carries, reduced workloads, and overall numbers drop (remember when 15 rushing touchdowns was easy?), Running Backs have taken a back seat in the all of a sudden pass-happy NFL.
Blame the spread formation. Blame the greatness of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Blame whoever you want—running backs no longer rule the fantasy football world.
This year there is a clear leader, and then a whole lotta' mess. Let's try and clean it up.
5. RB: Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons
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A true beast, Turner is one of the few featured backs in the NFL who would rather go through you than around you.
Although he is a part of a pass-first offense, Turner will always get his touches, and always get his touchdowns. He ran for 12 last year despite Jason Snelling playing a lot of red zone offense. I don't know whether Snelling will continue to steal Turner's touches, but I do know that Turner will continue to be the main running back on one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.
Steal him in round two, and thank me later.
4 RB: Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
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The fastest running back in the league, CJ would be higher if his Quarterback wasn't the inaccurate Jake Locker. Locker was drafted eighth, way too high, and will now be handed the reigns to replace the enigmatic Vince Young. I don't think he can do it.
Locker's inability to succeed is going to put a ton of pressure on the shoulders of Chris Johnson. That means more touches, but it also means more defenders in the box.
Expect another great year from Johnson, but don't expect his Madden-silly numbers of 2009.
3. RB: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
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Similar to Arian Foster, Peterson can run any style. He is big enough to punish you, strong enough to knock you over, fast enough to outrun you, and quick enough to break your ankles.
Unfortunately, Peterson and Chris Johnson are in the same boat—they have no quarterback. What that means is that defenses are going to be putting eight or even nine guys in the box to prevent Peterson from breaking loose.
Because of his talent, Peterson will remain a top fantasy RB, but Christian Ponder or Joe Webb is really going to hurt Peterson's red zone abilities.
Hate him or not, at least defenses had to respect Brett Favre's arm. With Christian Ponder or Joe Webb, this is not the case.
2. RB: Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns
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With the speed and power of an Amtrack train, Peyton Hillis is not a man you want to be against.
I may be reaching a bit by placing him ahead of superstars like CJ and AP (Hillis is only ranked #12 in Yahoo's preseason rankings), but watching Hillis play, you can't help but think that he is the hardest player in the league to tackle.
He is as ferocious as they come, with some teams needing five or six guys to bring him down. Unfortunately, his ability to grind out those extra few yards did cost him a few fumbles lost last season, but I am sure that is something he worked on a lot this offseason.
Strong as brick, Hillis can demolish you. If you try to go low? He'll just jump over you.
I'm expecting a huge year for the Cleveland Browns' leading RB and Madden 2012 cover man.
1. RB: Arian Foster, Houston Texans
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I figured you guys have seen enough action photos, so I went with the interview picture.
On the field, he was almost unstoppable both on the ground, and through the air. This year, I expect more of the same. With Matt Schaub at the helm, Foster in the backfield, and Andre Johnson running routes, Houston has one of the most complete, electric offenses in the NFL.
If you are worried that he is going to be too worn out, try this on for size:
Game 1: 33 rushes, 231 yards, 3 TD's
Game 16: 31 rushes, 180 yards, 2 TD's
As long as he is healthy, Arian will once again rule the fantasy world.
Wide Receivers: No Clear Choice
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What do you do when there is no clear number one? Or any other number for that matter?
Well, what you do is predict. Brandon Lloyd can't possibly lead all receivers in fantasy points this year. Andre Johnson can't possibly finish the year with only eight touchdowns. You get the point.
So if I'm totally off, don't blame me. What would you do?
5. WR: Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions
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There is nothing bad you can say about the guy. He has all the tools.
He's fast, strong, athletic, has fantastic hands, and on top of all of that, he is a great route runner. His connection with franchise quarterback Mathew Stafford is terrific. Sadly, Stafford's career has been marred by injuries so far.
In the month of October, Stafford's healthiest month, "Megatron" pulled down a ridiculous seven touchdown receptions. In all the other months of the season, with backups like Shaun Hill and the immortal Drew Stanton, Calvin ended up with only five touchdowns.
Needless to say, Calvin could be a number one or two if Stafford is healthy, but I aint' betting on it.
4. WR: Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons
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If I were drafting a team in the real NFL, White would be number one or two, but in fantasy football, number four seems about right. No doubt one of the most talented receivers in the NFL, White will not let you down.
Unfortunately, he is on a team with Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez, both of whom will take away red zone touches.
I love Roddy, and he could easily be at number one on this list, but with 115 receptions last season, he has got to finish with more than 10 TD's.
Maybe he will this season.
3. WR: Andre Johnson, Houston Texans
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Between Roddy White, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald (who, because of his QB situation, is sadly under-performing in Arizona—if, and this is a big if, he gets a QB who can actually throw, Fitzy will once again be among the fantasy elite), you have the three best WR's in the NFL.
Johnson is possibly the best route runner in the NFL, considering his size and athleticism. If healthy, he is a guarantee to be one of the best three receivers in the league. Last year, he got injured, and his statistics were less eye-popping than usual.
This year, expect Andre to get back to his ridiculous numbers from 2008 and 2009.
2. WR: Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants
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If not for a couple injuries, Nicks could have easily finished as the number one wide receiver last season. With a 16 game season, Hakeem is going to produce monster TD numbers and equally impressive reception numbers.
One of the main reasons I love Nicks is because the Giants aren't that big in the red zone. Mario Manningham isn't such a threat down there. Ahmad Bradshaw isn't either, and Brandon Jacobs struggled at many different points last year.
When the Giants get into scoring position, they'll look to #88. Pick him early and reap the benefits.
1. WR: Dwayne Bowe
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One of the most unbelievable stats last NFL season was this: despite not scoring in six games, and not playing in a seventh, Bowe still managed to haul in 15 TD receptions. Possibly even more impressive is that 13 of those TD's were scored in only a seven game stretch!
Bowe's QB, Matt Cassel loves Bowe's size and ability in the end-zone, and constantly looks for his favorite target. If it weren't for a few drops, Bowe would have probably ended up with 20 touchdowns last year.
With age comes maturity and experience, and I think this is the year Bowe separates himself from the fantasy pack by catching at least as many TD's as last year.
Tight Ends: Gates, Gates, Gates
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Unfortunately, the tight end position has become less and less important in the world of Fantasy Football. Luckily though, there is one guy who has saved the position from complete obscurity.
You guessed it: Antonio Gates!
Truth be told, there are other great TE's out there, but there really can't be an argument made against the San Diego Charger superstar.
Let's sort out the other four spots.
5. TE: Vernon Davis, San Fransisco 49ers
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Davis finally reached his potential in 2009, and although he saw a drop in his numbers last year, he continued to be an impact player for the Niners.
With their QB situation constantly in shambles, it's a miracle Davis puts up as good numbers as he does.
Expect Big Vernon's numbers to fall somewhere in between his insane 2009 and his very solid 2010.
4. TE: Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers
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I'm not 100% sold on Finley quite yet. He does have a ton of talent. He does have a superb QB, and he does have all the tools we look for in a fantasy TE.
I just don't like putting players like Jermichael ahead of proven stars like the next three guys.
Don't get me wrong, I love the potential here, but let me see a full season of super-stardom before we mention him in the same breath as veteran leaders like...
3. TE: Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts
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...Dallas Clark.
What a warrior. I hate the Colts. They are my beloved Patriots' biggest rival (or at least they were until fat Rex Ryan decided to show up). But how can you not appreciate a player like Clark?
He is just a rugged, surprisingly athletic tight end who plays the position more like a wide receiver. He makes impossible catches look easy, and he makes Peyton Manning's job a whole lot easier.
Regardless of how talented he is, the only thing we care about are numbers. Clark delivers those too.
In the three years preceding last years injury, he had 10, 6, and 11 TD's. This is a player who gets it done week in and week out. It helps that he has one of the most accurate quarterbacks this game has ever seen.
Don't worry about the injury; Clark is a fantasy stud.
2. TE: Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys
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It is totally unfair of me to say that Anotnio Gates is the only reason TE's are still important, considering Witten not only led all TE's (including Gates) in points last season, but also had his best season as a pro (although the Cowboys were staight awful).
Truth is, the only thing keeping Witten from the top of the TE mountain was touchdowns, and last year he finally broke through with nine.
Pick Witten, and you know that you are guaranteed 85 catches, close to 1000 yards, and many red zone looks. He has reached his ceiling though. Gates on the other hand, has not.
1. TE: Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers
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This is all you really need to know: in only ten games last season, Gates finished the year in second place of all Fantasy TE's, and finished with an astonishing 10 TD receptions.
He is the best TE, and he has a fantastic QB in Phillip Rivers. I expect both of their numbers to jump this year if Gates remains healthy.
Make sure you don't pick him too early though, QB's, RB's and WR's are all more important positions.
Kickers: Is It Possible to Predict the Best?
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The short answer is no. The long answer is that you should pick a kicker with a strong, accurate leg who plays for a good team.
Last year, I ignored the second part of my advice, and I ended up with Sebastian Janikowski, who finished number one in fantasy for kickers.
Go figure.
5. K: Matt Bryant, Atlanta Falcons
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A very good Kicker on a very good team, Bryant was superb last year for Atlanta. Connecting on an astonishing 90% of his kicks, Matt had the most accurate season of his career (not including his 3-3 in 2004 for Miami).
I love the offense there, plus, they play in a dome.
4. K: Neil Rackers, Houston Texans
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With another fantastic year, Rackers has solidified his place as one of the game's top kickers.
Rackers adds yet another dimension to the high octane Texans offense. Armed with a rocket leg, Rackers made his presence felt in his first year in Houston.
I'm betting on big fantasy numbers for #4 (and I'm not talking about Bobby Orr).
3. K: Sebastian Janikowski, Oakland Raiders
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It's pretty simple with Janikowski: strong leg, Oakland Raiders' anemic red-zone offense. Last year, the results were magical.
Despite hitting on only 80% percent of his field goals after his magnificent 2009 season (90%), Janikowski's 13 FG's from 30-39 yards propelled him to the top of the fantasy board last season.
This season, I would expect more of the same. Power and a whole lot of opportunities.
2. K: Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots
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The unlucky recipient of the dreaded "torn quadriceps" injury which totally destroys any chance a kicker has at playing, Gostkowski is on his way back to fantasy relevance.
I may be reaching a bit here, especially with someone who wasn't even so great before the injury last year, but I feel that with the Patriots offense playing so well, it is impossible that a healthy Gostkowski doesn't end up at least in the top five.
1. K: Nate Kaeding, San Diego Chargers
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After a dominating 2009 in which Kaeding somehow managed to go 19-19 from kicks of 0-29 yards, Nate's numbers dipped a bit last season.
I am going to venture a guess and say that the number drop has more to do with San Diego's depleted offense (because of all of the injuries) than it does with Kaeding's ability.
With a healthy year from Gates, and a full year from Vincent Jackson, I would imagine Kaeding's numbers will revert back to the glory days of 2009.
Defense/Special Teams: Same Old Story
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I feel like it's the same teams every year.
Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Chicago. How does that always happen?
Whatever the case, there are actually a few new entries into the top five this year (hint: Super Bowl Champs). Let's see how the top five shake out.
5. D/ST: Baltimore Ravens
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With Ed Reed and Ray Lewis as the emotional leaders, and Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs adding tons of punch on the D-Line, the Ravens defense is ferocious.
Although their fantasy numbers weren't great last year (they finished 9th), I have to tread carefully when it comes to disrespecting one of the great defenses of our time.
I expect one more productive year out of Ray Lewis, and with a productive Lewis comes a top five defense.
4. D/ST: Chicago Bears
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With Brian Urlacher leading the charge once again, the Bears finished the fantasy season in fifth place on defense.
The way Chicago manhandled the Super Bowl MVP in the NFC Championship game suggests that they have quite a lot left in the tank. As long as Urlacher stays healthy, Chicago will compete for the top spot.
3. D/ST: New York Jets
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Muhammad Wilkerson is only going to make the Jets bigger. I love the draft pick, and I love the defense. I just hate the team and the coach.
Rex Ryan does do one thing well though—defense. He is just a master. Yes, he steals all of his dad's coaching techniques, but hell, he's been in the AFC Championship two years in a row.
Who cares how you do it?
With Revis and Cromartie patrolling the sidelines, and tiny Jim Leonhard policing "center field," the Jets secondary allows Ryan to throw exotic blitzes at any time.
2. D/ST: Green Bay Packers
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As much as I want Green Bay to be in the number one spot, I just can't do it.
They have play-makers all over the field, and in their run to the Super Bowl, showed off more depth than anyone could have imagined.
Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams and Sam Shields were dominant on the corners. B.J. Raji and Cullen Jenkins were monsters on the inside, and obviously Clay Matthews was a beast off the edge.
I might regret this choice, considering all of Green Bay's weapons, but I can't put them at number one because of one player...
1. D/ST: Pittsburgh Steelers
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...Troy Polamalu. He is that good. Not only is he the best defensive player in the league right now, I think it is actually at the point where he can be mentioned as one of the best defensive players of all time.
Don't get me wrong. Ray Lewis is too, but Lewis is out of his prime. Polamalu is enjoying his prime right now.
Case closed.
Thanks for reading! Sound off in the comments section below, and let me know how I did.
Honorable Mentions (in order):
QB: Drew Brees, Josh Freeman
RB: Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall
WR: Greg Jennings, Larry Fitzgerald
TE: Marcedes Lewis, Rob Gronkowski
K: David Akers, Adam Vinatieri
D/ST: Patriots, Chargers
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