Gold Cup Preview: Mexico Will Retain CONCACAF's Supremacy

After a week marked by scandal and the break-up between Jack Warner and Chuck Blazer, CONCACAF will try to focus on football with the start of the 11th edition of the Gold Cup.

Costa Rica vs Cuba and Mexico vs El Salvador are the games that kick off the tournament, in which 12 nations of North and Central America and the Caribbean will look for their ticket to the 2013 Confederations Cup, the biggest essay for the World Cup Brazil 2014.

However, being honest, there’s not really 12 teams competing for the title. Costa Rica, Honduras and Panama may have a little chance to surprise everybody, but we all know there are only two true candidates: United States and Mexico.

The two giants from the North have dominated the Gold Cup since its creation, even playing the Final two years ago despite sending B squads to the tournaments, and there are few reasons to believe this will change in this edition.

A lot of pundits expect a close Final on June 25th at Pasadena, but I don’t see it. I don’t expect another 5-0 like two years ago, but Mexico should get a clear victory over its historic rival to retain CONCACAF’s championship.

Yes, United States dominated the series between these nations in the past decade (especially from 2000 to 2007), but the current state of both teams is much favorable for Mexico.

Most Mexican fans and journalists prefer to focus on the negative, but the truth is that El Tri is on the rise. Its performance in South Africa 2010 was a bit disappointing, but the road to Brazil 2014 looks very promising.

The players from the “Golden Generation” are reaching their maturity, lead by Javier Chicharito Hernández, Giovani Dos Santos and Héctor Moreno, who had outstanding seasons with Manchester United, Racing Santander and AZ Alkmaar.

Despite their lack of activity with their clubs, Pablo Barrera and Efraín Juárez have kept a very good level with the National Team, similar case of Guillermo Ochoa and Andrés Guardado, who don’t seem affected by the bad seasons of their teams.

While the young players start taking more responsibilities in El Tri, the veteran base still keeps a high level, with Carlos Salcido, Ricardo Osorio and Israel Castro in great shape, while Gerardo Torrado is always solid when he wears the green jersey. Although they won’t start the Gold Cup in the first XI, Rafael Márquez and Antonio Naelson Sinha provide a very important quota of experience and leadership.

In addition to that, Mexico has several players on the bench who have looked great with their clubs and in recent friendly matches this year. Jorge Torres Nilo, Aldo de Nigris, Jesús Zavala, Hobbit Bermúdez and Ángel Reyna have shown potential to be reliable substitutes when required.

On the other side, the United States have more doubts than certainties. It’s true that their last friendly games have been against much more powerful rivals than Mexico’s, but still, their results have been awful after South Africa 2010.

The biggest issue for the North American side is their dependence on a little group of stars. Other than Landon Donovan, Clint Dempsey and Michael Bradley, USA has no “heavyweight” players who can decide the course of a game.

Bob Bradley is struggling to find new players for the US team who can continue the progress shown in the past two decades. Two years ago, he used a B squad and they got trashed by Mexico’s own B side (although it had a few regular starters) in the Final.

Yesterday, without their top players on the field, the United States was not match for a Spain side that also rested several of their stars. It was a 0-4 blowout that could easily have been a 0-7.

The cautious and politically correct approach dictates that United States and Mexico have almost the same chance of winning the Gold Cup. But it’s wrong.

Mexico will retain CONCACAF’s supremacy in three weeks.

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