2011 NFL Predictions: A Veteran on Each Team Who Will Flop
Normally, an article written in June about NFL veterans would be done knowing where players will pad up in August. Joys of the false labor pains is all we can do at this time is speculate.
Not every player assigned to their 2010 team in this list will be back in 2011. I'm sure many fans will hope the player selected will be gone.
A few selections were no-brainers, although I tried to look beyond the obvious selections.
There are also a few "way-out-on-a-limb" picks, and Miami Dolphin fans in particular will carry some scorn with my nerve.
AFC West, Denver Broncos: Andre' Goodman, CB
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Some Bronco fans are expecting Bailey to single-handedly fix their pass protection, while others believe Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil will apply so much pressure on the QB in 2011 that the CBs will hardly be needed.
This will be a different defense for both of them, though, and there are no guarantees the Broncos will develop a pass rush to help out the secondary. Bailey will be the tougher CB for opposing offenses, leaving Goodman a bit exposed.
Rahim Moore should help the secondary a bit, but unless the front seven can rally the secondary will struggle again in 2011...led by Goodman.
AFC West, Kansas City Chiefs: Thomas Jones, RB
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It is yet to be seen if Jones will be in KC in 2011, but wherever he ends up playing next season will leave fans wanting.
Jones production started to wane in 2010, although he still picked up over 1,000 yards in offense. However, he'll be 33 when the season starts, which is Brett Favre-old in RB years.
AFC West, Oakland Raiders: Jason Campbell, QB
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The 2010 season was feast or famine for Campbell. He had five games with a passer rating over 100, and two more in the 90's. That is over half his games played.
Campbell also had a sub-teens day against their cross-bay rivals.
The 2011 season could end up being a difficult campaign for the Raiders. They are expected to lose a large chunk of their offensive line in free agency, and the parting of ways with head coach Tom Cable will also lead to the team taking a step back. Despite some of the concerns, he ran a solid offense that took pressure off the QB.
Campbell will have his face and hands full with the offense in 2011.
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AFC West, San Diego Chargers: Quentin Jammer, CB
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Antoine Cason is taking over as the top CB for the Chargers, and more pressure is going to be put on Jammer to hold down his side of the field.
While he may respond well, he is reaching the stage of his career where improved performance is a bit of an anomaly.
AFC South, Houston Texans: Matt Turk, P
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Punter is a boring pick for most any list, but I believe it is the right call here. Turk has had a great career, and being the size of a position-player likely has helped his longevity.
Turk turns 43 in a few days, and the 2011 season will likely be the end of the line for the Texan.
AFC South, Indianapolis Colts: Ryan Diem, OT
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The Colts made a few moves to upgrade their OL so far in 2011. They may make another step or two in the eventual free agency period.
Added talent in 2011 and a big contract could make Diem, once a sure-fire blocker for Peyton Manning, an afterthought of this offense. At a minimum, he will likely be asked to restructure his contract.
AFC South, Jacksonville Jaguars: Aaron Kampman, DE
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Kampman was a late free-agent signee during the 2010 offseason after being a system change casualty in Green Bay.
He was playing well enough until he missed the second half of the season. While the Jaguars would like to see him come back and play with a purpose, his best days are likely behind him.
AFC South, Tennessee Titans: Bo Scaife, TE
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The years are starting to show on Scaife. His production has declined in both of the last two seasons, and one more year of falling stats would make Scaif a non-entity in whatever offense he plays for in 2011.
AFC North Baltimore Ravens: Jared Gaither, OT
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Gaither has missed 20 games the past two seasons to injury and will attempt to rebound from a back injury. Back-to-back seasons with injury issues is unfortunate. A third straight year will make him a bust.
AFC North, Cincinnati Bengals: Mike Brown, Owner
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His stubborn approach to running his team has made it toxic for free agents. He was able to snatch up TO because nobody else wanted to touch him, and he wanted to play alongside Chad Ochocinco.
Brown has now botched the Carson Palmer situation; unless he salvages something for the disgruntled player, Brown will reach new depths as an owner.
AFC North, Cleveland Browns: The WR Position
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The Browns are looking to complete their turnaround under Mike Holmgren. To do so, they need some talent at WR.
They passed on Julio Jones and picked up a slew of draft picks from the Falcons, grabbing Greg Little in the second round. Colt McCoy needs weapons...preferably of the veteran nature.
Perhaps they can find something in free agency because their only established receiving threats are a TE and running back.
AFC North, Pittsburgh Steelers: Hines Ward, WR
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The Steelers need to squeeze everything out of the receiver position if they are going to get back to the Super bowl in 2012. Ward is coming off a winning performance, though Dancing with the "Stars" is hardly where the team has their sights set.
2011 will see a changing of the guard with the receivers and Ward is on the steep downside of his career.
AFC East, Buffalo Bills: Shawne Merriman, LB
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My other finalist for the Bills was Lee Evans, as his contributions have been dropping as fast as balls thrown to...I won't complete that sentence. I have a feeling Johnson will take a big step up in '11, making it difficult for Nix to live up to his stated goal of getting Evans more involved in the offense.
This pick might be a bit of a cop-out, as Merriman obviously hasn't been his old self due to injuries that tend to plague a lot of LBs. The steroid use, while it is unclear how long it was going on, can also have a toll on a player's body.
It does make one wonder if players are taking advantage of the lockout (the negative connotation, here) and the lack of testing for performance enhancing drugs. A player like Merriman could find some assistance with healing and preparation for the '11 season.
The Bills picked him up knowing this, and lost him from their lineup before he could play a down to yet another injury. I feel justified in listing Merriman due to the two year contract extension he was given in January. The Bills are expecting some production from him, but I fear those days are gone for the once-electric "Lights-Out" Merriman.
AFC East, Miami Dolphins: Brandon Marshall, WR
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Yes...I'm out on a huge limb here, and I'm sure Dolphin fans will come unglued at the mere thought of their top WR making this list. But not every pick can be an obvious player.
There was a reason Denver was willing to let Marshall go, and Jeremy Bates knew better than to let his short-lived employer in Seattle spend too much on Marshall.
NFL fans know he is a head-case. He co-existed in Denver enough to get by, but he had a better QB that could get him the ball. Marshall's attitude will follow the quality of his QB and how often he's getting the ball thrown to him in the manner he likes.
I will place one caveat on this selection: If the Dolphins can get a QB through free agency or a trade, Marshall may just come around and catch 100 balls and post 1,500 yards. If not, there is a better chance he misses more time due to a domestic dispute.
AFC East, New England Patriots: Matt Light, OT
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To be fair, Light was close to "bust" status last season. Some believe he'll rebound this year, but the odds are against him.
It will be interesting to see if the Patriots bring him back for one more season to give Solder the time he needs to bulk up and learn the NFL. Solder has a lot of potential, but I've been fairly direct that I don't see him being ready to step up to the DEs that play in the NFL. It is hard to find an organization that does better with talent evaluation, so this position will be interesting to monitor.
AFC East, New York Jets: Braylon Edwards, WR
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I want to put Sanchez here, but that is likely more due to my bias of not wanting to see him succeed. I have nothing against him as a player, but have blinders on after the Seahawks opted against drafting him.
As for Edwards...it is unknown if he will return to the Jets or find a new home. His performance has been up and down, and issues with holding onto the ball are established. He was the top receiver on his team last year, and only had one 100 yard game and came short of 1,000 yards. I see his numbers falling off even more next season.
But the real reason I'm picking him is he deserves a little press coverage right now. As for why...I'll let him tell the story from a recent Twitter update:
“As the 2nd most hated man in Clev. & a man of my word, today I will honor a promise made to 100 students in Cleveland years ago. The last of my Advance 100 students will graduate from my program and head off to college on scholarships that I will provide them with. Guys enjoy & embrace your new beginnings and remember your promise to me, to reach back & help someone else along the way.”
Edwards promised $1 million to these students, Regardless of what he does on the field in 2011, his impact on the lives of these students should be recognized.
NFC West, Arizona Cardinals: Tim Hightower, RB
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I could have easily put Beanie Wells here, but the expectations for him going forward are non-existent. Hightower had a great YPC average of 4.8 during the 2010 season, even though he rushed for under 750 yards with five TDs.
The Cardinals offense has two major issues that will make Hightower's life difficult in 2011. They don't have a QB, and their offensive line is a bit depleted. Add in the high draft pick spent on Ryan Williams, and Hightower's production in '11 looks to be minimal...at best.
NFC West, San Francisco 49ers: Nate Clements, CB
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Clements worked diligently in the offseason leading up to the 2010 campaign. 2009 was cut short for the CB, and he wanted to return and show he could still play great defense.
Results were mixed, though, as he showed he could still make good reads at times...shown by his three interceptions (two of which were against the Seahawks). However, he also surrendered some big plays.
While he isn't at the "old" stage relative to some CBs, his 10 seasons in the NFL will start to take its toll. He'll be playing under a slightly different system this season as well, and the 49er staff may be ready to start preparing their youth for their future.
NFC West, Seattle Seahawks: Olindo Mare, K
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The Seahawks hold several possibilities for veterans that won't live up to expectations next season. Marcus Trufant and Lofa Tatupu have both been dealing with injuries. Matt Hasselbeck may or may not return, and his play has been as inconsistent as his blocking the last three seasons.
Those would all be easy and obvious choices, so I'm going a different direction.
Kicker is only slightly more exciting to talk about than the punter, and I don't expect Mare to be back in Seattle in 2011. But he could return, and will land on a roster somewhere next season, so he makes this list.
Mare has a strong leg, and has been valuable on kickoffs. The rule change will hinder his value to teams, though, and he did struggle at times with FGs last season.
Mare's hit the point of diminishing returns for a K. He isn't consistent beyond 45 yards, and that isn't going to get it done now that the priority for the K position is hitting FGs. Don't expect Mare to improve on his 25-30 performance from 2010.
NFC West, St. Louis Rams: James Hall, DE
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To be honest, the Rams are a tough group from which to glean a bust veteran candidate, in part because they are so young, and in part because I think they are a talented group on the rise.
Hall is coming off his best season as a Ram in 2010. The defense finally stated to click under their new system from 2009 and responded well to coach Spagnolo. All signs point toward another great season for Hall, don't they?
I'm going to say no. They have already drafted his successor in Robert Quinn and he will take away reps from Hall. At 34, he is on the down-side of his career, and anyone expecting double-digit sacks from him again will be disappointed.
NFC South, Atlanta Falcons: Tony Gonzalez, TE
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If not for the aging Gonzalez, I would have been looking at Michael Jenkins. However, Gonzalez is too easy a target here. He is slowing down and won't be a primary target in the Falcons' offense in 2011.
Between having one of the best WRs in the game, and adding one of the better prospects in recent drafts, the Falcons will be able to utilize a vertical passing game effectively this upcoming season. While having a TE dragging underneath might be a nice check-down, I don't expect Gonzalez to offer much this season.
It has been a good run, but at this point most Gonzalez needs to run off into the record books. This is one position I would also expect the Falcons to focus on in free agency and potential trade talks.
NFC South, Carolina Panthers: Jeremy Shockey, TE
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I'd like to list Steve Smith here, but his limited production last season keeps him from meeting my self-imposed criteria of a production season in 2010. Actually, this makes it difficult to pick anyone on the Panthers' team.
Since the talent that performed well in '10 is likely going to do the same in '11, I'll pick on their offseason signee. Shockey is a few years beyond his prime performing days, and there is no reason to expect him to change things in '11. The fact that the Panthers' management group disagrees with me makes Shockey my selection for Carolina.
The Panthers need to be looking for a solid, young TE to grow with the rest of their youth. I didn't get this addition when they made it, and I don't understand it now.
NFC South, New Orleans Saints: Jon Stinchcomb, OT
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A bloated contract and the potential progression of 2010 draft pick Charles Brown could challenge Stinchcomb's status on the team. The Saints are focussed on the present, and Stinchcomb needs to show he can handle the RT duties to help his team make a better playoff run in 2011 than in 2010.
Darren Sharper would have been the easy target with the Saints. His playing days are limited, and he was exposed at times during the 2010 season. The Saints need better production from their secondary...Sharper may not be back.
NFC South, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ronde Barber, CB
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The selection of Barber is more a reflection of the talent and youth in Tampa Bay than the expectations for TB. There will likely be some pressure on Barber to carry the secondary in 2011, though, due in part to the legal issues surrounding Aqib Talib.
Barber was still a solid CB in 2010, but teams won't fear him as much next year as they have in years past. Depending on how the Bucs fill the other CB spot, he may not be challenged as much next season.
NFC North, Chicago Bears: Olin Kreutz, C
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During the offseason, Bears' coach Lovie Smith expressed a deep interest in bringing Kreutz back for the 2011 season.
“Every day I’ve been here, Olin Kreutz has been here. I believe in him. He’s the anchor of our team, our team leader. Not offense, defense, special teams. Our team leader," Smith said. "I know he’s without a contract right now, but I think Olin knows that he’s wanted, and that’s not really even a question.”
The desire to bring Kreutz back could have more to do with the disarray of the offensive line than the potential for Kreutz to be a solid option in 2011. If the Bears don't manage to find a better option in free agency and bring Kreutz back, then perhaps Jay Cutler should be my pick here.
Kreutz has had a good career, but his best days are behind him.
NFC North, Detroit Lions: Dominic Raiola, C
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If the Lions have Raiola lined up at center in 2011, Stafford could be in for another long season. He's already succumbed to injury in his first two seasons, leaving most fans believing the organization would look to address OL issues in the 2011 draft.
Unless one wants to get excited about a round-seven OT, the Lions ignored the C and OT positions.
The Lions will continue to try to become competitive, but until they improve their OL they will fall short. Despite allowing just two sacks and one QB hit in 2010, Raiola could be one of the worst starting centers in the NFL in 2011.
NFC North, Green Bay Packers: Donald Driver, WR
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Driver stated that he would like to play until he turns 40, which leaves a few more years for him to try and produce for the Packers. It is yet to be seen how they feel about that, though.
While he was still productive in 2010, another year under his belt an the emergence of other receiving options (Jordy Nelson) will continue to erode at Driver's production. Once relegated to the third receiver in 2011, it will be interesting to see if Driver sticks to his goal of "four more years."
NFC North, Minnesota Vikings: Steve Hutchinson, G
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While he has had a great career, age and injury have started to catch up with the king of the poison pill. Hutchinson can choose to go out on top and retire at the end of 2011...well, that would actually be too late.
Fans will look back on his career as one of the better ones for an OL, but should he stretch out too many more seasons, his legacy will be tainted.
NFC East Dallas Cowboys: Keith Brooking, LB
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Prior to placing Brooking's name in pen, I thought it would be best to verify if he'd be returning for the year of his contract in Dallas.
Jerry Jones said he will "absolutely, unequivocally" return, despite the Cowboys having Sean Lee and drafting Bruce Carter in round two.
At a minimum, Brooking's playing time will take a hit...and there is a chance he will fail to make the final roster. He's had a solid career with over 1,000 solo tackles. Soon he could be a silhouette riding off into the sunset.
NFC East, New York Giants: Rich Seubert, G
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This will draw the ire of many a Giant fan, as Seubert was a Pro Bowl snub in 2010. However, he dislocated his knee at the tail end of the 2010 season...an injury that can have lingering effects.
Seubert may be able to rebound during the offseason and ready to go in September, but having to rehab without the guidance and attention from the Giants' medical team will hinder his progress. It is unfortunate, as he is a solid performer that will likely suffer in 2011 because of the lockout.
NFC East, Philadelphia Eagles: Kevin Kolb, QB
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Eagles fans can either feel disgruntled that I selected a player that won't be on their roster, or take comfort in their roster that Kolb was the best I could come up with.
Actually, with the reputation Eagle fans have, they'll be disgruntled that I criticized anyone on their roster. Good thing I change my mind on selecing Asante Samuel.
Kolb will likely be traded to a QB-needy team and be handed the reins to a franchise. I still don't buy the hype, and with a shortened off-season he won't be able to prepare properly. Wherever he lands (the Cardinals appear to be the front runner today), 2011 will likely be a difficult season for Kolb.
NFC East, Washington Redskins: Yet-to-Be-Named QB
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Albert Haynseworth would have been a great selection for this list last season. I should just pencil him in here anyway.
Instead, though, I'm listing every QB on their roster, now and through free agency up to the start of the 2011 season. This position has been handled poorly, and it doesn't seem close to being resolved.
Rex Grossman has shown he shouldn't be a starter in the NFL. Donovan McNabb has shown some signs of life, but the Redskin offense hasn't responded as the coaching staff would have liked. By all accounts, the team won't want to pay out the insanely lucrative extension he was given, so McNabb could become a free agent.
The issues with the offense likely had more to do with the offensive line than the QB position, and nothing was done in the draft to help this unit. They allowed 46 sacks last season, good for fifth in the league. Don't expect that to change much in 2011.
The Redskins are running out of options for the position. I did see Mark Rypien a few weeks ago, and he's still in decent shape.
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