MLB Predictions: 6 Ways Races Will Look Different at All-Star Break
Take a look back a month ago and compare baseball's standings to what they are now—you won't see a ton of change.
A couple of teams have bounced back from slow starts to get back into contention, a team or two have fallen on hard times and some have just realized they are what they are—I'm looking at you, Royals and Orioles.
Other than that, not a lot has changed in the standings.
Like every year, there have been a few nice surprises—the Indians and Diamondbacks are leading their divisions after expecting to lead the league in empty seats at home games—and a dud or two—the Twins have nearly as many DL visits as wins.
More than in any other sport, things in baseball work themselves out. There are no flukes over a 162-game season, and, pretty soon, we'll be halfway there, and things will come even more into shape.
Here's what to expect from each division as the season heads into the All-Star break.
Braves Will Be Right Behind Phillies in NL East
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The Florida Marlins are currently in second place in the NL East, but they'll get leapfrogged by the Atlanta Braves, who will only be a game or two behind the Phillies by the All-Star break.
The Braves have a very kind June to look forward to.
In addition to the outstanding starting pitching they're receiving from Jair Jurrjens and Tim Hudson, 23 of the Braves' 35 games before the break will be against teams with losing records.
Add the fact they're due to get Nate McClouth and Jason Heyward back—plus Dan Uggla is bound to hit sometime—and the Braves are looking poised to make a run.
Ultimately, though, they won't quite catch the loaded Phillies by the break, and even if they do, it might not matter.
The Phillies appear to be the class of the division thanks to Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee—the best rotation in baseball.
Ryan Howard and Placido Polanco have had strong offensive starts for the Phils.
It would be a major surprise if anyone ultimately catches the Phillies.
The Marlins have a strong staff led by Josh Johnson and are getting good production out of Gaby Sanchez and Mike Stanton.
They're a good team that could win most other divisions.
The Mets appear to be on the verge of a fire sale (swan song for David Wright and Jose Reyes?), and the Nationals are waiting for the emergence of Bryce Harper and re-emergence of Stephen Strasburg.
Brewers, Cards Will Start to Run Away in NL Central
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The Cincinnati Reds are hanging around, but they have a tough stretch coming up, which includes series against the Giants, Yankees and Indians, and their final seven games before the break will be at St. Louis and at Milwaukee.
By flirting with .500, the Pittsburgh Pirates have been a feel-good story, but they're starting to scuffle and are looking forward to another losing season.
The Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros both appear to be out of the race already.
That leaves the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers.
The Cardinals have been good all season thanks to strong starting pitching led by a resurgent Kyle Lohse and a potent offense headed by Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman.
The Brewers are surging thanks to starters Shawn Marcum, Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf and Zach Greinke, as well as sluggers Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks and Ryan Braun.
The loaded Brewers and Cards are the class of the AL Central, and it should really start to show by the All-Star break as they begin to pull away in the standings.
In NL West, Giants Will Make Run with Only Rockies Challenging
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Kirk Gibson's Diamondbacks have been the talk of the NL West the last several weeks.
They're currently tied with the defending-champion San Francisco Giants for first—but it won't last. The Giants will take control of the division thanks to Tim Lincecum and Co. in their starting rotation.
Look for the stuck-in-neutral Rockies to eventually make a move but not too much before the break thanks to a tough schedule against the AL that includes series against the Yankees, Indians, Tigers and surging White Sox.
The entire team seems to be underachieving—namely Troy Tulowitzki and Ubaldo Jimenez—but they're too talented not to heat up.
Justin Upton and the Diamondbacks offense will keep it interesting, but they lack the starting pitching to contend—outside of Ian Kennedy and maybe Daniel Hudson.
The Dodgers have bona fide stars in Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier—but they've struggled to score runs and to win consistently, and the Padres are in a typical rebuilding phase.
It appears to be the Giants' division to lose again this year, and they'll begin to make their run by the break.
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Texas Rangers Will Extend AL West Lead
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In a wild AL West, the Texas Rangers will start to pull away by midsummer.
The Rangers have a two-game lead despite DL stints by their best players—Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz.
Alexi Ogando, C.J. Wilson and Matt Harrison anchor a strong pitching staff, and free agent Adrian Beltre has chipped in 43 RBIs.
They're a team that hasn't peaked yet and still have a lead in the division. It'll grow to a handful of games by the break.
It's tough to tell who their biggest challengers are.
Conventional wisdom would say the Dan Haren and Jered Weaver-led Angels, but the Mariners can answer with the equally impressive Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda.
Ultimately, the Angels will probably take control of second place thanks to a better offense, but who knows when that will be and how close they can keep it.
The Oakland A's all-pitching, no-hitting ways continue as they have to be considered a mild disappointment after being on a lot of people's sleeper list. Still, they're only four games out and have as good a shot as the Mariners and Angels to challenge the Rangers.
AL Central's Tigers, White Sox Will Continue to Narrow Indians' Lead
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The amazing Cleveland Indians have been the surprise of baseball thus far.
The Indians have been playing just well enough to ride a wave of late-inning victories to the best record in baseball.
Asdrubal Cabrera has begun to emerge as a star for the Tribe, who have got timely hitting and pitching all season.
Still, they've been showing some kinks in their armor lately and have allowed the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox to gain ground.
The Indians have built up enough of a lead to pretty much guarantee they'll be in first place at the break, but look for the Tigers and White Sox to continue to gain on the Indians.
The Tigers started slowly but are owners of one of the best records in baseball over the last month, going 17-9 over that span.
Miguel Cabrera has more help with Victor Martinez in the lineup, and Alex Avila has emerged as one of the AL's top catchers. Justin Verlander is the ace of a deep pitching staff.
The talented White Sox got off to an even worse start to the season, but they've been slowly getting back into the race despite little production from Adam Dunn.
Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin have made up for Dunn's slow start.
The pitching staff seems to have gotten a shot in the arm with the return of Jake Peavy. If he continues to pitch well, the White Sox will no doubt continue to chip away at the Indians' lead.
The Royals played tough for awhile, but they are starting to turn to their top prospects and are likely out of the race after an encouraging start.
The Twins have been the biggest disappointment in baseball this year.
They've been unable to get anything going and thanks to all of their injuries, they're off to their worst start in 30 years. They've come back plenty of times, but they might have dug too big a hole this time for even Ron Gardenhire to orchestrate a comeback.
AL East Teams Will Continue to Jockey for Position
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The AL East has been the most competitive division in baseball.
The New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays have all been in the top spot recently—with the Yankees currently holding a slim two-game lead—and there's no reason to believe these three teams (and maybe the Toronto Blue Jays) won't continue to flip-flop in the standings through the All-Star break.
The Yankees have gotten a monster season from Curtis Granderson, and Robinson Cano continues to emerge as the leader of the team as the careers of Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez begin to wind down.
They may have questions in the back of their rotation, but the offense and bullpen are potent enough to carry them to the division.
The Boston Red Sox got off to a well-publicized slow start but they quickly got themselves back into contention thanks to an MVP-caliber start to the season by Adrian Gonzalez.
Carl Crawford had a terrible debut with the Red Sox but has heated up lately and has kickstarted the Red Sox. The rotation is strong with Josh Beckett leading the way, and the Red Sox are finally living up to their potential.
The surprising Tampa Bay Rays don't appear to be going anywhere.
Matt Joyce has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball, and shunned free-agent Johnny Damon has had a resurgent year. Still, it's the incredible rotation that will carry the Rays—led by David Price and James Shields.
The Toronto Blue Jays have been mediocre thus far in the rugged AL East, but they're led by MVP Jose Bautista, who has been putting up steroid-era type numbers.
Expect the Blue Jays to hang around for awhile and at least make life miserable for the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays.
The Orioles' hot start is ancient history now, and they're looking like they will again finish light years behind their more talented division mates.
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