Calvin Johnson: 7 Predictions for Megatron in 2011
Calvin Johnson is a bit of an enigma.
He has the capability to lay claim to a decent portion of the NFL record books and a majority of the Detroit Lions’ records. Yet through some combination of injury, poor team play and inconsistent quarterbacking, Johnson is still just scratching the surface of his capability.
On paper, the Lions’ offensive attack in 2011 will feature better balance, continuity and quarterback play than it has in years.
That raises the question: Is this the year Calvin Johnson becomes the unstoppable monster he’s capable of being?
I don’t know if he’s ready to lay siege to the NFL’s single-season record books, but here are seven predictions for Megatron’s fifth NFL season.
1. No Games Missed
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Notice how I didn’t say “16 games played.”
Due to a great deal of greed, stubbornness and ultimate ignorance, there’s no guarantee we will have 16 NFL games next season.
Commissioner Roger Goodell is already discussing the possibility of axing preseason games, being as the 2011 offseason has yet to start and we would normally be weeks away from the start of training camp.
But however many games there are in 2011, I expect Johnson to make the most of his time off and come prepared to play his 2011 schedule fully healthy.
That doesn’t sound like much, but he has missed games (if only a couple) in three of his four seasons. Getting a full healthy season from Johnson—even if that season is only 10 games—is a bigger deal than you might imagine.
2. Consistency
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Megatron has had little trouble putting up a dominant 100-yard performance with a couple of touchdowns.
Where he has experienced some difficulty is in stringing two of those types of performances together. Taking 2010 as a template, Johnson posted nine receptions for 101 yards and three touchdowns in Week 9 against Washington but then posted one catch for 13 yards against the Jets.
The following week, 10 catches for 128 yards and another touchdown against Buffalo, which he followed with six catches for 46 yards against Dallas.
Of course, a good portion of that inconsistency likely has to do with the inconsistency of the quarterback play around him. The fact that Johnson made the Pro Bowl while catching passes from three different quarterbacks in front of an ineffective running game is a testament to his talent and potential.
A healthy Matthew Stafford and improved rushing attack should help Johnson regulate his week-to-week output—and there’s a good chance he finds equilibrium in Pro Bowl territory.
3. Career High in Receptions
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This is actually not as bold a prediction as you might think. Johnson’s best season for receptions was 2008, when he posted 78.
Considering he played 16 games in 2008, that’s less than five receptions a game, and that has been par for Johnson in the last few years. He has averaged right around five receptions a game since 2008, and that’s nowhere near enough for a receiver of Johnson’s skill level.
Of course, Johnson has made up for his lack of actual receptions by averaging over 15.5 yards per reception in his career. That allows him to post big numbers, but it’s not the most efficient way to run an offense.
The reason Johnson’s reception numbers are so low and his average so high is the Lions’ total lack of offensive balance and talent over the years. Through most of 2008 and 2009, the Lions’ offense was predicated on “Calvin, go deep, beat the double coverage, go up and get it.”
In 2011, the Lions will sport enough talent and continuity to get a little creative with the playbook, and Calvin could see some work that throws defenses for a loop. If Johnson’s receptions increase and his average dips a little, consider it a successful season and a step in the direction of efficiency.
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4. Second Place on the Lions’ All-Time Touchdown Receptions List
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At present, Calvin Johnson is in fifth all-time for touchdown catches with the Lions with 33.
Legends Johnnie Morton, Terry Barr and Leonard Thompson sit in a three-way tie with 35.
Johnson might have that mark surpassed by Week 2, and I don’t even need to explain why. However, he is unlikely to move into first, where Herman Moore holds a comfortable lead with 62 touchdown catches.
That said, Moore’s all-time mark could be under attack by 2012. If Johnson averages 15 touchdown catches in the next two seasons, the record is his. That’s a lofty goal, but consider that he has already hit 12 touchdowns twice in his four-year career, and he hasn’t even reached his potential yet.
5. A Rushing Touchdown
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This one is a little bit out there, but I would be a little surprised if we didn’t see at least one rushing touchdown out of Johnson this year.
Johnson has the moves, the agility, the straight-line speed and the vision to bust a big run off a trick reverse. It just hasn’t worked well in recent years because opposing defenses have had no reason to fear the Lions’ regular rushing attack. If it looked like a reverse, teams played the reverse. If they guessed wrong, the worst they’d give up was probably five yards.
The 2011 season should be different. With Jahvid Best healthy and Mikel Leshoure pounding open gaps on the inside, defenses should need to stay honest enough to be exploited by a little trickery.
Johnson has rushed the ball 18 times in his career and has had some success in doing so. But he hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown since a 32-yard scramble in his rookie season, and I would bet he’s not done with just that.
6. Not Career Highs in Every Area
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I would love to predict a 1,500-yard season for Johnson, but I can’t do it. The Lions offense is far too diversified this year for him to suck up all the yards himself.
If Johnson blows away his previous career high in receiving yards (1,331), it either means the Lions are primed for a record-setting offensive season or Johnson’s supporting cast isn’t performing up to snuff.
I’m not bold enough to predict the former, and I hope the latter doesn’t come to fruition.
Now don’t misunderstand me. I am predicting a big year for Johnson, and I did indeed predict a career high in receptions. I just don’t know if that necessarily means he blows away every single-season number he’s ever posted.
See, Johnson is still capable of the big play, and the Lions will need that threat to help keep their offense moving. But they now have other means of moving the football other than sending Johnson out to win a jump ball 30 yards down the field.
That means fewer 30-yard receptions for Johnson and maybe a few more passes in the 10- to 15-yard range. It might not be good for Johnson’s overall stat line, but the Lions offense will be much more effective for it.
7. Lots and Lots of Contract Talk
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It’s already coming up. Johnson’s contract is up in 2013, and the Lions are already wincing at how difficult it’s going to be to keep him two seasons from now.
That’s not just because he’s likely to become one of the highest-paid wide receivers in football; it’s because the man himself might not have any desire to come back.
Though the team is turning around now, Johnson has played through four mostly miserable losing seasons, and it wouldn’t be shocking to find he wanted to skip town just to wash the taste out of his mouth.
Of course, winning fixes everything, so if the Lions become a serious contender in the next two years, it might be enough to make him want to stick around and finish what he started.
The Lions had better hope so, because the Georgia native sure isn’t going to give the team a hometown discount. At present, there are a lot more reasons for Johnson to leave than to stay. There is still time for that to change, but it needs to.
In the meantime, expect local media and any Johnson interviews to be absolutely pelted with discussion about a possible contract extension, free agency plans, trades and how recent events (whatever they are) may affect his decision.
It won’t be quite on the scale of “The Decision,” and Johnson himself is too understated to make that big and ugly a spectacle of himself. But in terms of local media attention, expect Johnson’s 2013 “decision” to make big headlines until it’s resolved one way or another.
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