Fantasy Baseball: 6 Early Season Buy Low, Sell High Candidates
Fantasy baseball is the most difficult of all the fantasy sports.
Firstly, we're not actual GMs. Many of us have trouble with the the whole "wait and see" attitude and get concerned when Adrian Gonzalez goes 0-4 two games in a row.
Secondly, the scoring system is conducive to long stints at the bottom of the league. While not all leagues use rotisserie scoring, the ones that do often lead to teams being stuck in a position in the standings for weeks or months at a time.
Finally, identifying who is on a hot streak and who is actually here to stay for the whole season is incredibly difficult. I've worked very hard to try to get better at this part of fantasy baseball.
Two years ago I traded a slumping Matt Holliday for a hot Bobby Abreu. Terrible, obviously. I apparently learned my lesson and did better research for the next year where I traded a peaking Andrew McCutchen for a starting-to-go-crazy Carlos Gonzalez.
Does that make me an expert? Well yes, it does. Here are my six buy low and sell high candidates as of May 29th.
Buy Low: Adam Dunn
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Adam Dunn has had a horrid start with the Chicago White Sox.
The man seemed to be destined to play the designated hitter role at some point in his career seems to not be adjusting to only batting during a game.
Dunn is batting .184 with a mere 5 home runs and 23 RBI. He was projected by ESPN to lead the league in home runs with 45, but that is almost definitely not going to happen.
But he does have the stuff to crank out some nice home run totals for the rest of the season.
In the past three years, Dunn has hit a total of 62 home runs over the past three seasons over the summer months of June, July, and August. That's a clip of just under seven dingers per month, a handsome total to add to your team.
I just have to think that the small confines of US Cellular Field will start helping the Big Donkey to get on a nice home run pace soon.
Batting average, though, is another story. A very sad story.
Sell High: Lance Berkman
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I feel like this one should be common sense.
It's not that there is a slew of statistics that indicate that Berkman is prone to bad second halves. True though, Berkman has batted a disappointing .258 after the All-Star break compared to .295 before the break over the past three seasons.
The real statistic to be worried about his the date of birth. Berkman is 35 years old, certainly in the twilight of his career.
One reason that his batting average has started slumping in the second half is because the nagging injuries of the first half of the season begin to pile on to the aging slugger.
You can terrific value if you trade him now according to your needs.
Buy Low: David Wright
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I heard a so-called expert call David Wright a "good, not great player."
I simply disagree. I think Wright is indeed a great player. His numbers back me up.
He has a lifetime batting average of .302, averages 29 homers, 110 RBI, and 21 SB per year when he plays a full season (150 games and 550 at-bats).
I call that great. What else can you call it?
Right now, Wright is on the DL with an injured back but is eligible to come off on May 30th. He's batting .226 this season, which means either he's going to have an epically bad season for no noticeable reason, or he's due for a major turnaround.
Go grab him!
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Sell High: Asdrubal Cabrera
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Good ole Asdrubal. What a stud.
Asdrubal Cabrera is definitely a quality shortstop on the upstart Cleveland Indians, but he's not someone to bank your team on. His current stats beg to differ though, with a line of .302, 10 HRs, and 35 RBI.
You need to know that Cabrera has never knocked in more than 68 runs in any season and has already surpassed his career high of six homers in a season.
At age 25, it's possible that he's just taking off. But are you prepared to miss out on moving him for that ace you need on your staff so badly?
The fact is, Cabrera's rates higher than both Jered Weaver and Roy Halladay according to ESPN's Player Rater.
Move him now!
Buy Low: Shin-Soo Choo
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Strike while the iron is hot because Shin-Soo Choo is emerging from his slow start.
After bottoming out at a .221 batting average on May 11, Choo has made a recent surge to push his average to .249.
Such an uptick bodes well for Choo, whose two full seasons in the majors have yielded a .300 batting average, 42 home runs, 176 RBI and 43 SB.
He is a complete player who has been able to maintain some moderate stats even while beginning the season in a slump. Choo sports a stat line of 5 HRs, 22 RBI, and 7 SBs.
His steals are on pace to return another 20+ SB season, while the home runs and RBI should see a nice boost once Choo begins making better contact.
And he will. He's Shin-Soo Choo.
Sell High: Alexi Ogando
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How about Alexi Ogando for pulling a name out of a hat?
Ogando has been impressive as a starter this year, filling in while the regular starters get healthy. The main reason he is a sell high is the uncertainty of his role when guys like Brandon Webb and Dave Bush start pushing for a starting role.
Yes, Webb just might actually pitch again.
Ogando proved himself last year (and last year only, mind you) to be an excellent bullpen option for Ron Washington in the sixth, seventh, or eighth inning. With Darren Oliver being the only steady arm in the bullpen this year, the smart move might be to bump Ogando back to the bullpen.
Like I said, the stats are in his favor, but if I had Ogando (and I did), I trade him and get good value for this waiver wire pickup (and I did).
Go Forth and Prosper!
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Nothing says that a timely trade or waiver wire addition can really bulk up your team like Jose Bautista, does it?
Every year there are a couple times when a smart trade can make the difference between first and fifth.
The season is still young, which makes it a great time to grab a slow starting player before he gets going. At the same time, many owners will be itching to get one of your hot bats for his team. Think closely about both and do a little math.
My wish for you is that you make a deal closer to my Andrew McCutchen for Carlos Gonzalez trade than my Matt Holliday for Bobby Abreu trade.
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