World Series Prediction: Lots to Like About Phils, but...

Not to be disrespectful, but I would like to take this opportunity to officially welcome the Phillies to the major leagues.

Oh, the National League technically is in the majors, but the AL champion Rays are considerably more potent than the Phillies' two NL playoff opponents, the Brewers and Dodgers.

Not potent enough to sweep the Phillies, mind you. But potent enough to win a best-of-seven in which they possess home-field advantage.

The Rays fear that the Phillies possess an AL-style lineup, knowing that the Phils won the NLCS in five games, despite leadoff hitter Jimmy Rollins and cleanup man Ryan Howard going a combined 5-for-33 in the first four.

That fear is legitimate, to a point. The Phillies are stronger offensively than the Red Sox were in the ALCS, when David Ortiz struggled and the bottom third of the Sox's order mostly consisted of outs. But I can give you three reasons why the Phillies' lineup might struggle in the World Series.

- Inconsistency: The Phillies tied for second in the National League in runs during the regular season, but scored nearly 100 fewer runs than they did in 2007. Manager Charlie Manuel and the front office were baffled by the team's occasional slumps.

- The six-day layoff: Recent history suggests that the Phillies' prolonged break will disrupt their hitters' timing. A year ago, the Rockies were swept by the Red Sox after an eight-day layoff. In 2005, the Tigers were eliminated by the Cardinals in five games after a six-day layoff.

- Tropicana Field: The Phillies haven't played at the Rays' home park since 2001, and some opponents say the Trop's lighting and hitting background make it a difficult place for batters. The Rays' statistical splits bear this out—their team ERA was more than a run lower at home than on the road during the regular season. The pattern, while not as pronounced, has held in the postseason.

The Phillies are confident despite all this, and not without reason. They're a team of hungry, tough-minded veterans. They've got the best starting pitcher in the series, left-hander Cole Hamels, and also the better one-two bullpen punch, Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge. While the Rays' rotation is deeper—Matt Garza vs. Jamie Moyer could be a mismatch in Game Three—the Phillies believe that their starters match up well against Tampa Bay.

The Rays, like most clubs, love hitting fastballs. The Phillies feature two lefties who make heavy use of changeups, Hamels and Moyer, a righty who relies on his curveball, Brett Myers, and another righty who throws four pitches, Joe Blanton. The rotation's collective ability to change speeds, Phillies officials believe, could provide an edge.

"I don't buy that, not necessarily," one scout says. "Tampa can hit breaking balls as well. You can get breaking balls over for strikes in hitters' counts. Because they are geared for the fastball, you can get away with not making the perfect pitch with the breaking ball. But once they see it, if you go back-to-back and try to throw the same one, they're going to hit it."

In any case, the Phillies do not figure to pitch as passively as the Red Sox did against Tampa Bay. In fact, we could see the same type of friction that we did in the NLCS, with Phillies pitchers repeatedly throwing high and inside. The Rays' B.J. Upton, in particular, hates getting thrown at, according to one scout.

Only three AL clubs hit more home runs than Tampa Bay during the regular season. The Rays then set an LCS record by hitting 16 homers in seven games. Yet, the Red Sox never made the Tampa Bay hitters uncomfortable, allowing them to take one big swing after another without fear of getting buzzed. The Phillies won't make the same mistake.

Rays manager Joe Maddon could go with some interesting lineups—both Hamels and Myers feature reverse splits, so don't be surprised if the Rays use left-handed hitters against Hamels (trying to reduce the impact of his changeup) and righties against Myers.

I worry about Moyer, who has been ineffective in his two postseason starts. And the Rays like the way their left-handed hitters match up against Blanton.

Of course, these things rarely play out the way anyone expects. Little- used Matt Stairs, 40, hit the Phillies' biggest home run in the NLCS. Rays rookie left-hander David Price closed the ALCS after appearing in only five games in the regular season and two in the postseason—and could play a big role again against the Phillies' two big left-handed hitters, Chase Utley and Howard.

The last seven-game World Series was the Angels' victory over the Giants in 2002. Rays-Phillies looks to be just as competitive. Both teams could hit a ton of homers. The Rays' pitching looks better, but the Phillies' offense eventually figures to erupt, especially after the series moves to Citizens Bank Park. One thing to remember: The Phillies haven't played on field turf, the surface at Tropicana Field, in more than two years.

Before taking umbrage with my pick, be aware that I predicted an Indians-Braves World Series in spring training, then went 2-for-4 with my selections in the Division Series and 1-for-2 in the LCS. Hardly an impressive batting average, but I have yet to miss picking the Rays, so here I go again.

The pick: Rays in seven.

This article originally published in FOXSports.com.

Read more of Ken's columns here.