Pittsburgh Pirates: (Mis) Understanding Jeff Karstens

Jeff Karstens, the former Yankee and current Pirate, isn't the most durable pitcher around. But he is sure handy to have in a pinch.

He started his Pittsburgh career in August 2008 in spectacular fashion, pitching six innings of shut-out ball that led to a victory against the Chicago Cubs, a club that the Pirates beat only four times (out of 18) that year. His followup starts weren't so good.

Perhaps we've underestimated Jeff Karstens in the past," Neal Huntington was quoted as saying by Dejan Kovavec in the Post-Gazette.  "We just need to continue seeing how he does once he gets through that 75-80 pitch threshold."

That's not the point. Karstens' Achilles heel is that he can't, or at least shouldn't, be pushed through 75- 80 pitches on most nights. He has relatively few quality starts because he often doesn't pitch much past five innings. But even then, he does produce what I call "quasi quality starts," five plus innings with two or fewer runs.

But his strength is what he does during the time he CAN pitch. He's pitched to an ERA below 3.00 (going into tonight's game against Houston). That's lower than any other Pirate starter.

He averages north of six strikeouts per nine innings, more than any other starter except James McDonald, who walks many more batters. Speaking of which, Karstens also walks fewer batters per nine innings than other Buc starters.

Karstens' weakness is less serious than it would be on some other teams, because the Pirates have a better than average bullpen.

If a starting pitcher can get the game to the relievers, even after five innings without the opponents' having scored more than two runs, that would be better than say, a seven inning four-run start that the Pirates' light hitting might not be able to overcome.

A low-budget team like Pittsburgh can't always afford a starter who is good for long innings AND a low ERA. That would be someone like Roy Halladay.

But the Pirates CAN afford someone who is "Roy Halladay" for five or six innings, and use the bullpen to make up the difference.

That's how they BEAT Roy Halladay last year, using Zach Duke for six innings, and the bullpen for three.