Washington Nationals: Is the Offense Really This Bad?

The simple answer is no, the Washington Nationals offense can't be this bad.

At least, that is what those who play for, manage for, cover and run the team keep telling us. They point to long track records and scouting reports, but all I see is batting averages in the .200s and microscopic RBI totals.

Superficially, the Nats to possess a decent lineup, but the stats aren’t backing it up. So, are we in for this all season long or have the Nats been unlucky?

Let’s look at the stats:

First things first, let’s just figure out how bad the Nationals have been at the dish. Nationals batters currently have a combined WAR of 1.7. To put that in perspective, Brandon Phillips, on his own, currently owns a WAR of 1.7—and he’s not even first on his own team (Joey Votto, 2.1 WAR)!

For those of you who have no idea what WAR is good for, this means that Joey Votto has contributed more wins to the Reds than the entire Nats roster has to their own team.

The WAR criminals? Mike Morse (minus-.2), Adam LaRoche (minus-.3) and Jerry Hairston Jr. (minus-.2).

According to those numbers, If the Nats replaced those players with replacement players (minor leaguers), the Nats would have .7 more wins.

The fact that the Nats' worst hitters have been players who were projected to be some of their better hitters is encouraging, and really, Morse and LaRoche have been rather unlucky.

LaRoche’s BABIP (batting average of balls in play) is currently at .214, about 80 points lower than his career average, while his line-drive percentage is right around his career average.

That means he is hetting the ball as sharply as he has in his career; he just happens to be hitting it at the proverbial "‘em"

But no Nat has been more unlucky than Mike Morse, although his luck is starting to even out (he’s hitting around .400 in his last 10 games).

In 2011, Morse has been hitting the ball better than he has at any other point in his career. He has a 21.7 percent line-drive percentage compared to a 15.8 line-drive percentage in his semi-breakout year in 2010.

Jayson Werth seems like he’s close, which has been said about a billion times this season, and Ryan Zimmerman should be back at the beginning of June, so the offense should get better.

But the keys are LaRoche and Morse coming around and hitting with more power, which that the statistics say they will.

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