MLB Predictions: Finding the Next Wave of the Rookie Class of 2011
The first wave of the rookie class of 2011 has already arrived, and it's been packed with it's share of surprises.
Freddie Freeman, Domonic Brown, and Brandon Belt were supposed to be the class of the class, and instead, each has struggled. Freeman is hitting .226 with more strikeouts (32) than hits (31). Brown failed to even make the Opening Day roster and Belt struggled to a .192 average before getting sent back down to the minors.
Instead, the stars of the rookie class have been Seattle's Michael Pineda (5-2, 2.45 ERA, 52 K in 51 IP), Baltimore's Zach Britton (5-2, 2.42 ERA, 12th best G/F ratio), and Chicago's Darwin Barney (.343, 19 RBI. 23 runs).
And while these are the names that have pushed to the forefront of the Rookie of the Year race, don't forget that Buster Posey, the 2010 N.L. Rookie of the Year, didn't make his debut until May 29th.
Which brings us to the next wave of rookies that are on the cusp of breaking into the Majors.
Could one of these be the next American League or National League MVP?
Anthony Rizzo, 1B, San Diego Padres
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Considering how hot Anthony Rizzo has been over the first month and a half of the minor league season, it's a wonder that he hasn't already been called up.
For the season, he's raking to the tune of a .374/.447/.714 line. He has 12 home runs, 12 doubles, 50 RBI and 33 runs in just 37 contests, all of which have occurred during his first season in Triple-A. He has a solid 19:34 BB:K ratio and even has five steals in six attempts.
And as an added bonus, Rizzo has continued to shine defensively at first base, where numerous mangers have rated him as the top defender in his league for a few years in a row now.
Now, consider how the Padres big-league first basemen have been hitting.
Big-league veteran Brad Hawpe is hitting .246 with two home runs and ten RBI. Fellow infielder Jorge Cantu, who has also seen extensive time at first is hitting .210 with three homers and 13 RBI.
Double those stats and that's still roughly half of the damage that Rizzo has inflicted upon Triple-A pitching.
If Rizzo isn't up before the All-Star break, it's a serious crime.
Charlie Furbush, LHP, Detroit Tigers
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The Tigers have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the past two weeks.
One of the keys to their success has been their starting pitching, which could get even better when 25-year old Charlie Furbush eventually gets the call to join the active roster.
Furbush made headlines in 2010 by jumping all the way from High-A to Triple-A in just one season. He posted a ridiculous 109:14 K:BB ratio for Lakeland in 13 starts and finished the season with the second-most strikeouts in the minors (183).
For his encore, Furbush has been making a killing against Triple-A hitters. He already has two seven-inning complete games to his name this year, along with another eight-inning, one-hitter in which he struck out eight. He's notched at least six strikeouts in all but one of his starts, and has an 11-K effort.
For the season his line looks like this: 4-3, 2.91 ERA, 2 CG, 46.1 IP, 29 H, 55 K, 16 BB, .176 avg against.
The Tigers are blessed to have two seasoned veteran starters in Furbush and Andy Oliver, who saw some big-league action with the club last year.
Both could factor in heavily to the team's plans as the Tigers try to keep pace with the Indians in the American League Central.
Yonder Alonso, Of, Cincinnati Reds
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For the past two seasons, Alonso has been hearing two things.
One, how bad his defense is in the outfield, securing a spot for him at first base.
Two, how he's nothing but trade bait with reigning N.L. MVP Joey Votto manning Alsono's preferred spot.
Neither of those have stopped Alonso from tearing the cover off the ball this spring. He's raking at a .341 clip and he has 13 doubles, five home runs and 20 RBI, a far cry from Rizzo's numbers, but a solid start nonetheless.
Especially when you take into account that he's spent a large chunk of his time this year playing in the outfield, where the Reds appear determined to squeeze him in an effort to get all the plus-bats they have on the field at the same time.
Alonso has one of the better approaches at the plate in the entire minor leagues, and has great power to boot.
His defense will be the key to his arrival in Cincinnati though. They are a team with a hearty group of seasoned defenders, especially in the outfield, so having to give up so much value defensively is going to hurt them.
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Zach McAllister, RHP, Cleveland Indians
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One of the most underrated deals of the trade deadline last year involved the Indians snatching up Zach McAllister, a top pitching prospect for the Yankees system for veteran outfielder Austin Kearns.
McAllister looked like the wrong guy to ask for, especially after he pitched to a 6.88 ERA in three late-season starts for the Indians Triple-A affiliate.
However, seven starts into the 2011 season, the Indians are looking very smart. Not only because they have the best record in baseball, but also because McAllister has jumped out to a 6-0 start.
Win totals in the minors don't matter as much as in the Majors, but the 23-year old also has some impressive stats in other departments, such as a 2.80 ERA and a 35:10 K:BB ratio in 45 innings.
He's gone at least six-inning in each of his last six starts, and during May, he's 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 21 innings.
The Indians haven't had too many issues with their pitching, and one potential hole they did have they filled with fellow rookie Alex White.
If the need arises however, McAllister should be a capable fill-in.
Jesus Montero, C, New York Yankees
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With the Jorge Posada-Derek Jeter-New York Yankees fiasco spiraling around New York, one thing has been lost in the mayhem.
The Yankees have a hitter down in Triple-A right now that not only can provide a better bat, but also defense that is slightly above what Posada can offer at this point in his career.
Jesus Montero has spent the entire season with Scranton/Wikes-Barre and has yet to cool off, hitting .331 in 31 contests, with seven doubles, two home runs and 12 RBI. He hasn't been as much of a power threat as he was in 2010, but he also got off to a slow start that year as well.
And it's not like a .331 average against a bunch of Major League vets isn't impressive.
With Posada's skills declining so quickly, it might not be long before the Yanks make the call for Montero, who could do a whole lot better filling in at DH with an occasional start behind the plate.
Kyle Gibson, RHP, Minnesota Twins
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I was one of a handful of people who was surprised when the Twins didn't give Gibson, the team's best pitching prospect, and their top prospect overall, one of the spots in their rotation out of spring training.
Forty games into the season, it looks like his time might come very soon. Not only do the Twins have the worst record in baseball, at 13-27, but they also three starters with ERAs over 4.60.
Unfortunately for Gibson, two of those starters are established big-league veterans. One of them (Francisco Liriano) already has a no-hitter under his belt so he's not going anywhere and the other just signed a two-year deal in January.
That would leave Brian Duensing as the odd man out if Gibson is to take his spot in the rotation he figures to occupy for quite some time.
Down at Triple-A, Gibson has been making little noise, but has been quietly efficient through eight starts. His ERA (4.25) doesn't look overly impressive, but it's almost two full runs lower than Liriano's, so that's a start. He has one of the more impressive K:BB ratios in the minors at 41:8, and he's managed to go at least five-innings in each of his starts since April 14th.
Last year, in his minor league debut, Gibson shot through the minors, starting at High-A Fort Myers and ending the season in Triple-A. In all, he finished with an 11-6 record, a 2.96 ERA and a 126:39 K:BB ratio.
Matt Hague, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Hague had a very underrated season last year for the Pirates Double-A squad, crushing 15 home runs, driving in 86 runs, all while hitting .295.
This year, bumped up a level to Triple-A, he's been just as good, hitting .289 through 39 games. He's been especially good during the month of May, hitting .313 with two home runs and 14 RBI.
Those numbers aren't Rizzo-esque, and they're barely at the level of Yonder Alonso, but they look a whole lot better than the production that the big-league club has received from their first base combination of Lyle Overbay (.230) and Steven Pearce (only 42 at-bats).
Maybe the Pirates are just biding their time until they can add potential No. 1 overall pick Anthony Rendon to the fold. Then they can slide over Pedro Alvarez, and his .210 average, to first base.
Brad Mills, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
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The Blue Jays have a very solid rotation and could have one of the best bullpens in baseball, but you know what they say...you can never have too much of a good thing.
Enter Brad Mills, a diminutive lefty who has seen some time with the big-league club in each of the past two seasons. Mills saw action in both call-ups primarily as a starter, and he struggled in each of his five starts.
As the Jays move into the heart of the season, still in contention in the dangerous A.L. East, it might make sense to move Mills into a relief role.
As a starter this season, though, he has been great. He's posted a 3-2 record, a 2.68 ERA and a 44:12 K:BB ratio in 53.2 innings. He's been one of the most durable starters in the Pacific Coast League, ranking second in innings-pitched and he has the third-lowest WHIP in the circuit.
His ERA ranks second as well.
Mills might eventually find his home as a member of the rotation, but right now the Jays have a few holes in the pen, most notably Octavio Dotel and his 6.17 ERA.
Adrian Cardenas, 3B, Oakland Athletics
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Somehow, despite playing the better part of three seasons at Triple-A Sacramento, Adrian Cardenas has never gotten so much as a sniff at a big-league call-up.
This, however, could finally be the year, as it appears the 23-year old has finally solved Triple-A pitching. He's hitting .367 through 37 games, and has been racking up hits (51) and doubles (11) at a career-high pace.
He's even doing his part by driving in some runs.
And he appears to have carried over his success at choosing his pitches from last year when he walked one fewer time (50) than he struck out (51). Right now he's at a dead-even 14:14 BB:K ratio.
The A's just moved into a first-place tie with the Rangers in the A.L. West, but if they're going to have any chance to stay competitive they're going to need some better performance from their third base combo of Kevin Kouzmanoff (.212) and Andy LaRoche (.235).
Cardenas is a better pure hitter than either of those guys, and could be just the spark-plug that the team is looking for to combine with Coco Crisp at the top of their lineup.
Neil Ramirez, RHP, Texas Rangers
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As a whole, the Rangers big-league pitching has been solid. Unfortunately, every time the team has tried to fill a crack in the bullpen it has resulted in a failure.
Mason Tobin, Brett Tomko and Ryan Tucker have all been hit hard, while Mark Lowe and Cody Eppley have been lost all control over their repertoires.
Luckily the Rangers have one of the deepest groups of minor league pitching in baseball to continue to draw from.
The next name very well could be Neil Ramirez, who has been a starter his entire career in the minors. He posted big strikeout numbers last year in a break-out season and has continued to excel in 2011. His 3.28 ERA in seven starts is one of the top numbers in the PCL, while his 40:15 K:BB ratio is the best on his own squad.
Ramirez is a lanky guy, but he throws hard (touching 97 mph) and has an excellent curveball that is likely the best in the entire system.
He could find a nice home as a reliever.
Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
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Lawrie could have been a member of the Blue Jays opening-day roster had he not had concerns about his defensive limitations.
The 21-year old Canadian has had no problem adjusting to Triple-A pitching in a new league, tearing apart pitchers to the tune of a .337 average with nine home runs and 31 RBI in 39 contests. He has added 14 doubles, three triples, and nine steals as well.
But defense is the name of the game with Lawrie...as in "how is he going to fare as a big-league infielder?"
The Jays moved Lawrie to third base before the season in an effort to find him a home after attempts at settling him at catcher and second base had failed.
And while he's looked more comfortable there than any other position, he's still only been playing the position for one-quarter of a season, leading many to think he won't be worth all the errors and miscues.
Still, with a bat like his, and it's arguably one of the top bats in the entire minor leagues, Lawrie should finally force his way into the lineup by September at the latest.
Daniel Klein, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
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Klein has wowed the Orioles staff in just 12 appearances, so much so that he's already earned his way to Double-A in his first full professional season.
Before the season there were talks of the O's moving Klein into a starting role. Instead, the team announced the plan to keep him as a reliever this year, and then reconsidering their options heading into 2012.
In 2011, he's been sensational, posting a 0.72 ERA over 25 innings. He has 28 strikeouts in just 25 innings and has only issued four walks and allowed 18 hits. He gave up two solo home runs in High-A ball, and those have been the only two runs he's allowed all season.
He's fresh off of two scoreless innings on Tuesday, and hasn't allowed a run in 9.1 innings for Bowie.
I don't think it was in the plans for Klein to reach Baltimore this season, but in the grand scheme of things, even if he returns in 2012 as a starter, the big-league experience would only benefit him.
Cole Gillespie, Of, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Now that the D-Backs have settled back into the bottom of the National League West, it might be time to think about giving Gillespie another shot.
The 3rd-round pick of the Brewers back in 2006, Gillespie received his first taste of the big-leagues last year, hitting .231 with 12 RBI in 45 games.
He began the 2011 season back in Triple-A and he's been pushing hard to get back to the Majors. He's currently hitting .331 with seven doubles, 11 triples, one home run and 26 RBI. He has a solid 21:28 BB:K ratio and eight steals.
If the 11 triples seem like a lot, that's because it's a crazy high total. Gillespie has always been a triples machine, hitting 12 in 2009 and six last season, but in '09 he manufactured a dozen in 129 games. This year, it's taken him only 37 games to come within one of that career-mark.
Arizona has prided itself on fielding very athletic outfielders, and Gillespie fits that bill.
At the best, he could pump some life into an ailing lineup. At the worst, the team finds out he can't really hack it in the Majors, but at least then they know for a fact what they have.
Juan Nicasio, RHP, Colorado Rockies
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Nicasio and Klein are the only members on this list who aren't currently in Triple-A.
In Nicasio's case, that could change very quickly.
In this, his first attempt, at Double-A, Nicasio has thrived, posting a 1.99 ERA and a 60:10 K:BB ratio in 49.2 innings. He has looked great in every start, including his one loss. He already has two double-digit strikeout performances to his credit and missed out by one strikeout on Tuesday from his third.
He has only allowed more than two earned runs once and has gone at least 6.2 innings in his last five starts.
No Rockies pitcher is performing as well as Nicasio, and as such, he might make the leap straight from Double-A to the big-leagues, joining a rotation that has been hit hard by injuries to Ubaldo Jimenez and ineffective performances from Esmil Rogers.
Charlie Blackmon, Of, Colorado Rockies
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For a team that fields one of the most athletic lineups in baseball, the Rockies sure are lacking in the steals so far in 2011.
Uber-fast base-thief Dexter Fowler only has two this season, Troy Tulowitzki is on pace for about ten, and the team leader is Carlos Gonzalez, who has six.
Meanwhile, down at Triple-A, the Rockies have a farm-hand who is not only stealing bases, but also raking at the plate, showing good pop and flashing some solid defensive ability.
Charlie Blackmon is currently hitting .327 with 12 doubles, three triples, eight home runs, 36 RBI and nine steals. He is one of the most athletic outfielders in the team's system, and was a trade target for the Rangers when they were looking to deal Michael Young this off-season.
As good as Blackmon is, it's going to be hard to crack an outfield that has CarGo, Fowler and Seth Smith.
But I'd say he deserves at least a look. Even if he can toss in every now and again with a few stolen bases as a pinch-runner, every little bit might help the Rockies hold off the Giants in the N.L. West.
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