Tampa Bay Rays: Tim Beckham's Hot Start in 2011 Earns Him Re-Consideration

The Rays had the number one pick in the 2008 draft.  They were considering two players with the pick that year: Tim Beckham and Buster Posey.  The Rays chose the 18-year old Beckham, out of high school in Georgia, instead of Posey, the 21 year old catcher out of Florida State.  

Beckham, whom many baseball fans have not heard of, has been labeled a "bust" in the three years following the 2008 draft, while fans know Posey as the centerpiece of the San Francisco Giant's World Series offense.

Does Tim Beckham deserve the bust label?

There is no doubt that he has been a disappointment in his first three years of pro ball, but he is hitting well in Double-A this year (.303/.379/.408). And this year, Beckham is 21 years old, the same age Posey was in 2008 when he was drafted.

There's reason to believe that this is the year that Beckham sheds his "bust" label, even if not garnering a return to the "phenom" status he had when drafted in 2008.  

First, Beckham's breakthrough thus far has come while batting in one of the worst lineups in the Double-A Southern League.  The Montgomery Biscuits do not hold the Rays top-level talent and their numbers show that.

Second, he has made a logical, but large, stride in all the aspects of hitting which you would like to see him stride forward in.  This includes his plate discipline; more frequent bat-to-ball contact, and power.

Is Tim Beckham a "bust," despite this?

He is if you thought he would be an elite five-tool player, putting up five-tool statistics.  

He's not, for example, Justin Upton, and he probably never will be.  But, does this mean he's a bust?  If Tim Beckham can crack Major League Baseball as a 23-25 year-old and be a valuable middle infielder (hit .280, with a .780-.820 OPS, and 15HR), then it would appear not. 

Beckham is still far away from confirming that this is possible.  But, his start in Montgomery this year should draw attention to the fact that Beckham is developing positively and advancing each year as a hitter.   

Beckham may not end up being the player the Rays should have drafted with the first pick in 2008, but that doesn't mean he is the player the Rays should regret drafting with the first pick.  

Beckham may prove himself as an example of why patience needs to be shown when evaluating high school prospects.  

Additionally, it shows that the numbers themselves may not be as important as the advancement and development reflected in the numbers over time when considering high school draftees.  

Tim Beckham has not yet proven that he will be a valuable Major League player, but he still has not "busted."