2011 NBA Draft Lottery : Does the Field Have Better Odds Than the Timberwolves?
The NBA draft lottery adds some excitement and ambiguity to the draft order.
While technically the team with the worst record in the NBA has better odds than an individual team at selecting first, they only have a one in four chance at winning the lottery.
In 1994, the lottery changed its format.
Combinations are dispersed amongst the lottery teams, with the worst team receiving the most combinations, the second worst team receiving the second most combinations, the third worst team receiving the third most combinations, etc.
It isn't very often that the team with the best odds ends up coming out with the number one overall pick. Here are the odds for each pick, along with a brief history for each one.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 25 Percent
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The Minnesota Timberwolves are probably going to botch their pick, regardless of where they select.
They have 250 combinations and the best overall odds.
Of the teams who have gone into the lottery with these odds since the format changed in 1994, only one has rendered the first pick.
The Cavs were tied for last in 2003, but were given 225 combinations.
The teams with the worst record during the regular season who selected first overall were the Cavs in 2003 and Magic in 2004.
LeBron James and Dwight Howard were selected with those picks. Not bad.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 19.9 Percent
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The Cleveland Cavaliers need to fill the LeBron James void.
Perhaps getting Peyton Hillis on the cover of Madden has turned around a terribly unlucky sports city.
The Cavs have 177 combinations.
The second-worst team in the league has held the first overall selection twice. All three times, the second-worst team in the league has won the lottery, they have had different odds.
In 1994, the Bucks selected Glenn Robinson, in 1996, the 76ers selected Allen Iverson, in 2009, the Clippers selected Blake Griffin.
Toronto Raptors: 15.6 Percent
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Having the third most combinations is fairly lucky.
The third-worst team in the league came away with the No. 1 overall pick four times.
The picks rendered Tim Duncan, Michael Olowokandi, Elton Brand and Kwame Brown.
While some teams clearly utilized the lottery pick better than others under these circumstances, there may be something to the third highest percentage.
Washington Wizards: 11.9 Percent
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Unlucky No. 4. The team with the fourth most combinations has never been a lottery winner under the current system.
There are a few different ways to look at that stat. From a mathematical standpoint, there is no greater chance of the fouth pick being a winner this time around. It isn't "bound to hit" this year.
That being said, the longer data is collected, the more probability resembles the actual odds.
If you flip a coin six million times, it is a better representation of the data than it would be if you only flipped the coin a few times.
You can see having the fourth best odds as an omen, curse or for what it actually is, which is the fourth best shot at winning the lottery.
Sacramento Kings: 7.6 Percent
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On the flip side, the fifth most combinations is tied for the most lottery wins, with four.
That makes almost no sense, as this pick should only win about 7.5 percent of the time.
The team with the fifth most combinations won the lottery in 1995, 2002, 2006, and 2010. J
oe Smith, Yao Ming, and Andrea Bargnani have all been disappointments in their own ways. John Wall was the 2010 selection.
The Kings have a young core of talent that could take their team to the next level by getting lucky here. The Thunder can attest to the benefits of a few good lottery selections.
Utah Jazz: 7.5 Percent
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The Jazz have almost as many combinations as the Kings.
The sixth-worst team in the league has rendered the first overall pick twice under the current system.
The players selected were Andrew Bogut and Greg Oden. If the Jazz are lucky enough to have the No. 1 overall pick, they will try to avoid the fate that the Bucks and Blazers have endured.
Teams 7-14
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Below are the odds for each team.
Pistons 4.3 percent
Cavs (pick from the LA Clippers) 2.8 percent
Bobcats 1.7 percent
Bucks 1.1 percent
Warriors 0.8 percent
Jazz 0.7 percent
Suns 0.6 percent
Rockets 0.5 percent
It's happened before, in spite of the lopsided odds. The seventh-worst team won the lottery in 2000, and the Nets drafted Kenyon Martin.
The main reason the Bulls are where they are as a franchise is that MVP Derrick Rose came to the team after the Bulls won the lottery, despite having the ninth-worst record in the league, they shot up all the way to the top of the order. Fancy that.
Stay tuned to Bleacher Report to follow all NBA Draft Lottery news, including updated 2011 NBA Mock Drafts and immediate reaction and analysis to the updated NBA Draft Order.
