Detroit Lions: 5 Breaks the Lions Must Catch To Make the Playoffs in 2011

Playoffs?! You kiddin' me? Playoffs?

So be honest, has that line been overplayed yet? Probably, but it has still been pretty accurate in Detroit over the last 10 years or so.

Playoffs? I just hope we can earn a .500 record!

But still, this Detroit Lions team is looking better than any since the 1990s, and they are drawing several sets of eyes as potential challengers to the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North.

What a difference a four-game winning streak makes, huh? At the start of December, the Lions were 2-10, criticism was starting to heap on head coach Jim Schwartz (along with calls for his head) and the only fallback supporters had was "we're in every game, we're just losing all the close ones" and "we'd be winning if Stafford were playing."

Then, the Lions rattled off four straight wins for the first time in a long time, and each of them seemed to quell a different concern about the team.

Can't beat a division opponent? Minnesota and Green Bay both had lengthy winning streaks against the Lions snapped.

Can't win on the road? Wins over Tampa Bay and Miami both occurred in Florida.

Can't win with defense? The Lions beat Green Bay 7-3, after shutting down (and eventually injuring) Aaron Rodgers for the entire first half.

Can't win from behind? The Lions notched a pair of clutch interceptions and scored 17 points in the final five minutes of their win over Miami.

All the Lions need to do now is prove they can win with the playoffs on the line. They should be in the hunt this December, but they're not so talented that they can sleepwalk through the regular season. They're going to need to come out strong for all 16 games, and they're going to need some things to fall the right way.

None more important than...

A Healthy Matthew Stafford

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CHICAGO - SEPTEMBER 12: Julius Peppers #90 of the Chicago Bears hits Matthew Stafford #9 of the Detroit Lions in the head earning a penalty during the NFL season opening game at Soldier Field on September 12, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears defeated

This is the most obvious of them all. If the Lions are to make anything meaningful happen this season, the newly-proposed face of the franchise must remain on the field.

Shaun Hill is a reliable backup quarterback, and the Lions had some success with him and Drew Stanton last year, but those aren't the kinds of wins they want. Stafford played in only three games last season and finished only one.

In the one he finished, the Lions won. In the two he left with injury, the Lions were ahead and gave away the lead after he went down.

Sure, the Lions ended the season on a four-game winning streak, none of which involved Stafford. But if you doubt the importance of Stafford's health to the team, take a look at this stat:

Lions' record when Stafford starts and finishes the game: 3-6

Lions' record when Stafford doesn't play/leaves injured: 5-20

Now, I'll grant you the fact that neither of those inspire much confidence. But Stafford's losses all came in 2009, when was playing on a half-formed team and being forced to throw 50 passes a game because he was playing from behind all the time.

If Stafford had finished all three of his games in 2010, he could very possibly have been 3-0. The Lions led both of those games late before losing both in heartbreaking fashion.

Team-Wide Improvement

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MINNEAPOLIS - SEPTEMBER 26: Alphonso Smith #27 of the Detroit Lions catches for an interception against the Minnesota Vikings during the game at Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome on September 26, 2010 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Ima

The Lions sport a fair number of high draft picks on the team, and most of them have performed well enough to lock down long-term roster spots with some certainty.

But the Lions have also put together a fair amount of the roster with spare parts and duct tape.

Primarily, these are young players with upside who don't fit their team after a coaching or scheme change.

My fellow analyst Mike Sudds calls this bunch the "Square Peg Brigade" in a fantastic series he wrote several weeks back. If you haven't read it yet, consider this (and the above link) your invitation.

The thing with the "Square Peg Brigade" is that most of them are on the Lions as a second chance, attempting to use their talents on a team that suits their style. And most of them have yet to realize their potential.

At a number of positions, particularly secondary and linebacker, there is a lot of talent, a lot of youth and a lot of upside but not much production yet. Those players going to be thrown into roles that are a little too big, and the Lions are going to hope they grow into them over time.

The Lions' roster is going to look a little different after free agency, but Alphonso Smith, Aaron Berry, Ashlee Palmer, Bobby Carpenter and a number of others are going to play major roles on the 2011 Lions.

They, along with all of the Lions' young stars, need to continue to develop and show notable improvement if a playoff run is going to get off the ground.

Return of the Rushing Game

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CHICAGO - NOVEMBER 20: Mikel Leshoure #5 of the Illinois Fighting Illini runs as Brian Peters #10 of the Northwestern Wildcats closes in during a game played at Wrigley Field on November 20, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. Illinois defeated Northwestern 48-27.

This is Mikel Leshoure. Despite being widely considered the second-best running back in the draft, the Detroit Lions were able to get him in the bottom of the second round.

Leshoure is going to be of major importance to the Lions in their quest for offensive balance next year.

The Lions sorely need a true between-the-tackles rusher, something they have lacked for years. Every time they draft one, his career is derailed by injury.

Leshoure should have a solid season, even if the Lions have to play a little "pass to set up the run" to compensate for the lack of road-graders in the middle of the offensive line. But he needs to stay healthy and so does Jahvid Best.

If those two can stay healthy and produce, they should establish an effective run/pass balance that will improve the entire offensive and help keep Stafford off the turf.

Weaker Wildcard Competition

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TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 19: Receiver Calvin Johnson #81 of the Detroit Lions runs through the tackle of defensive back E.J. Biggers #31 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game at Raymond James Stadium on December 19, 2010 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by J

Last season, the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished the season at 10-6.

Both missed the playoffs.

Not long ago, the New England Patriots missed the playoffs at 11-5. Good as the Lions could be in 2011, I don't know that they're going to finish much better than 10-6, and that's under the best of circumstances.

But given the amount of quality competition in the NFC, 10-6 might not be good enough for a playoff spot.

The other road to the playoffs is winning the NFC North. With the Green Bay Packers hanging around, the Lions will probably be taking their chances with a wild card spot.

And if the Lions can push for one of the remaining wild card spots, it'll help them a great deal if they don't have to compete via tiebreakers with a slew of other 10-6 teams.

A Little Help, Refs?

It's not really my style to blame the refs for the Lions' woes.

Sure, they blow a call here and there. They're human. Sometimes, they make a call that looks wrong to the whole world but is actually correct by the book.

Either way, the refs make 20 good calls for every bad one, and the bad calls tend to even out over time. They're not responsible for the Lions' shortcomings, and they do a great job more often than not.

I've moved on from the "process of the catch" game, and I hold no long-standing grudges.

But the Lions need to find the right side of some of those "iffy" calls. In particular, I would like to see Ndamukong Suh be called a few less times on personal fouls that aren't actually personal fouls.

Pulling Marion Barber down by the hair is not a horse-collar tackle, and pushing Jay Cutler in the back is not roughing the passer.

Yet, Suh was called for both in those respective instances and not only have those calls given Suh an unfair reputation as a dirty player, they also came in key moments of their respective games.

Winning teams often get the benefit of the doubt on 50/50 calls. and they often represent the difference between winning and losing in close games. Those calls went almost universally against the Lions last year.

With any luck, those calls will even out a bit in 2011.