French Open 2011: Power Ranking Rafael Nadal and the Top 10 Men in the Field
A date with the red clay of Roland Garros approaches for 128 men in this year's French Open.
Will Novak Djokovic win at Roland Garros? If so, would it be because of Rafael Nadal’s body giving up on him? Who will upset Roger Federer in the early rounds? Will there be a dark horse from the top 10 winning the tournament?
This slideshow will power rank the top 10 men in the field and analyze their seasons and careers, and forecast a potential French Open outcome.
10. Jürgen Melzer
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For a while, Jürgen Melzer was more known for his relationship with Dominika Cibulková, rather than his tennis ability.
That being said, 2010 was a high-achieving season for Melzer, as he reached the semifinals at Roland Garros, the fourth round at Wimbledon and the U.S Open.
Melzer’s season so far has been up and down, winning just 57 percent of his games, though he ensured his name was in the spotlight when he defeated Roger Federer at Monte Carlo this season.
French Open forecast
One cannot see Melzer achieving another semifinals appearance. It’s more than likely he’ll reach the fourth round or even be knocked out before.
9. Gaël Monfils
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As Andy Murray tweeted: “Just met ken rosewall! Total legend of tennis...5' 5"; how times have changed."
Gaël Monfils stands at 1.93 meters and has unparalleled athleticism, which enables him to pull off highlight reel shots.
Yet Monfils lacks the tennis IQ or the craftiness of a Ken Rosewall, endangering his own body by unnecessarily diving about.
So it comes of no surprise that Monfils’ season has once again been hampered by injuries.
French Open forecast
It depends which Monfils shows up. If he’s motivated and injury free, then he’ll be in contention to reach the quarterfinals. If he isn’t motivated and carrying a slight knock, then he may be bounced out early.
8. Nicolás Almagro
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Like most Spanish players, Nicolás Almagro is at home on clay, with two clay-court tournaments to his name this season.
Interestingly, did you know even though he’s only 1.83 meters tall, Almagro is ninth on the most aces served this season?
Almagro is a good tour player, but nothing else. He’s 0-14 in career meetings with Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. When up against someone ranked in the top 10, Almagro only wins 24 percent of the time.
French Open forecast
If he gets a good draw, then he may progress to the quarterfinals. However, if he is unlucky with the draw, he then may be bounced out in the fourth round or earlier.
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7. Tomáš Berdych
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Tomáš Berdych’s season has been consistent; he’s reached seven quarterfinal out of nine tournaments.
If there’s a word to describe Berdych’s career so far, it would be mercurial.
Standing at 1.96 meters tall, with incisive ground strokes with both wings and a solid serve, why hasn’t Berdych achieved so much more?
Nonetheless, a semifinal appearance at the French Open, and defeating Roger Federer en route to being a finalist at Wimbledon last season, has given the tennis world an insight to how talented Berdych is.
French Open forecast
It would be surprising to see Berdych repeat another semifinals appearance, but perhaps he'll make the fourth round.
6. Andy Murray
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Aside from benefiting from Rafael Nadal’s injury (by beating David Ferrer), and reaching the Australian Open final, Andy Murray’s season so far has been stained by a nagging elbow injury.
In an April interview with Piers Newbery at BBC Sport, Murray said: “I can hit the ball fine, it's nothing major…To keep playing through it doesn't make any sense; it will make the inflammation worse, so I need to get rid of that and it shouldn't take too long."
Murray’s nagging elbow injury has coincided with the clay-court season, and it doesn’t help that clay is his worst surface—he wins 55 percent on clay, as opposed to his 76 percent on all other surfaces.
It would be more beneficial for Murray to rest his elbow in order to be fully fit for Wimbledon, as opposed to playing at the French Open with a nagging elbow injury.
Though, with Murray reaching the Rome semifinals, it seems his elbow is fine.
French Open forecast
Would be a surprise if Murray reached the semifinals: fourth round.
5. Robin Söderling
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Twenty years from now, there’ll be a trivia question asking who was the first man to beat Rafael Nadal at the French Open?
Robin Söderling is an enigma. Some days he’ll lose to the likes of Ivan Dodig, other days he’ll fire winner, after winner after winner with his ungainly and unorthodox shot-making against someone like Nadal.
Söderling’s season has been profitable, as he’s won three titles, though none on clay (yet).
French Open forecast
Given Söderling’s past two tournaments, you cannot count him out. Should reach the quarterfinals.
4. David Ferrer
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It’s kind of ironic that David Ferrer’s best Grand Slam results haven’t been at the French Open. Like most Spanish players, Ferrer was type-casted as a clay-court specialist, yet he’s developed into a more complete tennis player.
A semifinalist at the Australian Open, Ferrer raised a few eyebrows in reaching the quarterfinals. Certainly his fourth-round matchup with the big hitting and talented Miloš Raonić was one not foreseen by punters.
Ferrer’s clay-court record of 15-3 this season has been exceptional. Of his three losses, two came against Rafael Nadal, and one came against Novak Djokovic.
French Open forecast
He may reach the French Open semifinals.
3. Roger Federer
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With records of 0-2 against Rafael Nadal, 0-3 against Novak Djokovic and a surprise loss to Jürgen Melzer, perhaps we should get accustomed to hearing "World No. 3 Roger Federer."
Before the 2009 Australian Open final against Nadal, the school of thought was surely Federer has the physical and mental edge after Nadal’s five-set, five-hour-and-14-minute slugfest with Fernando Verdasco. Yet Federer was not able to capitalize.
After the 2010 Australian Open quarterfinal where Nadal’s body gave up, pro-Nadal fans were discussing how, even if Federer won, he didn’t beat Nadal in the final.
Yet Federer didn’t even reach the final, as Novak Djokovic seized on the rare opportunity of winning a Grand Slam.
Six-time Grand Slam-winner Boris Becker was 29 years old when he won his last Grand Slam. Eight-time Grand Slam-winner Ivan Lendl was 30 years old when he won his last Grand Slam. Eight-time Grand Slam winner Jimmy Connors was 31 years old when he won his last Grand Slam. And 14-time Grand Slam winner Pete Sampras was 31 years old when he won his last Grand Slam.
Sixteen-time Grand Slam winner Federer is 29 years old and approaching the crossroads of his career.
French Open forecast
Don’t be surprised if he is knocked out at the quarterfinals or before.
2. Rafael Nadal
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Rafael Nadal’s start to 2011 mirrored 2010, when injury ushered serious concerns over his durability.
During the 2011 Australian Open quarterfinals against compatriot David Ferrer, injury struck Nadal again as it did during his 2010 Australian Open quarterfinal match against Andy Murray.
Yet Nadal recuperated and won the remaining three Grand Slams, thus giving him a career Grand Slam.
Nadal’s record in 2011 has been Nadal-esque: 32-5 (86 win percentage). Though, three of his five losses came against Novak Djokovic in finals at Madrid, Miami and Indian Wells.
It’s a concern, but as long as this pattern isn’t established at Grand Slams, then the Nadal camp has no reason to panic.
A fully fit Nadal is near unbeatable, especially on clay, as typified with a 92-percent win record on the red dirt.
Yet when Nadal’s body gives up on him, he becomes vulnerable.
French Open forecast
If fully fit, Nadal will win a sixth French Open, thus equalling the accomplishment achieved by Björn Borg.
1. Novak Djokovic
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Perfect: 35-0 so far. Novak Djokovic needs eight wins in order to topple John McEnroe’s 42-0 start in 1984, and 12 wins to topple Guillermo Vilas’ 46-game winning streak set in 1977.
McEnroe ended up winning two Grand Slams and was a Grand Slam finalist in 1984. When Björn Borg made a 31-0 start in 1980, he also ended up winning two Grand Slams, and was a Grand Slam finalist. That was also the case with Ivan Lendl, who made a 29-0 start in 1986. So the omens look prosperous for Djokovic.
Djokovic has made a breakthrough start to the season, having won his first Grand Slam in three years and posting 3-0 records against Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer.
More importantly, the three wins against Nadal have come in finals.
Danielle Rossingh at Bloomberg interviewed Djokovic, who stated: “I’m playing the best tennis of my life." He sure is!
French Open forecast
If Nadal goes down with injury, then Djokovic will win the French Open. He took his opportunity at the Australian Open and he’ll do the same if given the chance at Roland Garros.
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