2011 NFL Predictions: Players on the Hot Seat Entering 2011
Spring may finally have arrived in Chicago.
Besides an inexplicable 15-minute deluge, today was warm, sunny...just beautiful. Of course, it's May 11. The spring equinox occurred almost two months ago and the start of summer is barely one month away, which means, before we have much of a chance to enjoy the temperate weather, it will likely turn into blistering, humid heat.
Far too often this is the case in the NFL.
With such a compact season under such constant scrutiny, a player's fortunes can change dramatically from season to season. Today's feast becomes tomorrow's famine. Today's treasure, tomorrow's trash.
Look at Larry Johnson, Rich Gannon, Dante Hall, Tommie Harris; these guys went from the top of their craft one day, to mediocrity (or straight-up out of the league) just a year or two later.
But isn't that just the way it is? As Tom Keifer (he's the lead singer from Cinderella, come on...) might tell us: "You don't know what you got, 'til it's gone." And if he wasn't talking about professional football when he sang it, he may as well have been, because in no sport do the words ring more true.
The following is a player from each team entering a crucial season.
Carolina Panthers: Steve Smith
1 of 32
Saddled by a trio of inexperienced, terrible quarterbacks, Smith set career lows (ignoring his rookie season and 2004 when he played just one game) in every receiving category. Quarterbacks aside, though, Smith will be entering the 11th season of a career in which he's played 16 games only twice, and losing even half a step for a receiver of his stature could have huge effects on his productivity.
Denver Broncos: Kyle Orton
2 of 32
It's hard not to feel bad for this guy. Everywhere he goes he seems to be viewed as a place filler for some young hotshot (often from Florida) who will probably end up being worse than he is. Orton has improved every season he has been a starter, finishing last year with a 87.5 QB rating. His reward? Being benched the final three games in favor of Tim Tebow.
Prediction: Orton gets traded to Cardinals, which finish 4-12 at no fault of his. With the fifth-overall pick next year's draft, the Cardinals select John Brantley (QB, Florida). Orton drives to Gainesville with a trunk full of explosives and burns that mother****** to the ground.
Cincinnati Bengals: Carson Palmer
3 of 32
Sandwiched between Jason Campbell and Kerry Collins in QB rating is not where you want to be, and whenever I saw him play, he just looked awful.
Palmer seems like one of those guys who everyone thinks should be better than they actually are, so when they play like they probably should, it looks a lot worse than it actually is. Was that coherent?
Honestly though, can you blame the guy for his numbers being down? In 2005, when he had his best season, he was throwing to a 27-year-old Chad Ochocinco/Johnson (I don't remember when he changed his name) and a 28-year-old T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Since then Chad has remained, gotten older and the Bengals have just added other washed-up receivers to play across from him. He even managed to make T.O. look not-dead last year.
Still, he needs a bounce back year, with the Bengals or someone else.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Buffalo Bills: Kyle Williams
4 of 32
This is an admittedly scapegoating pick, because when your team finishes dead last against the run, there's clearly plenty of blame to go around. I guess in a certain way it's justified, though. If your team can't rebound, you blame the center, not the point guard.
I honestly know nothing about Kyle Williams. He seems to have had a fairly decent year actually: 5.5 sacks, 77 combined tackles.
I probably should have picked C.J Spiller...Screw it, it's my column and I'm sticking with it.
Kyle Williams, nose tackle, Buffalo Bills. Hot seat!
Cleveland Browns: Peyton Hillis
5 of 32
This was the easiest choice of all.
The Madden Curse has its sights set on a new target, Peyton Hillis of the Cleveland Browns.
I was actually shocked that Aaron Rodgers didn't get picked, and that they let the fans vote on the cover athlete at all. Hasn't All-Star game voting taught us that fans shouldn't be allowed to choose anything?
Yao Ming? Seriously?
Full disclosure here: I don't believe in the Madden Curse. I do, however, believe wholeheartedly in the "White Guy Playing NFL Halfback in 2011" Curse, so I fear this may be a tough year for Peyton. Hopefully this curse can be offset by the "Guys Named Peyton Being Awesome At Football" anti-curse.
Arizona Cardinals: Beanie Wells
6 of 32
After a disappointing season in which Beanie ran for just 397 yards on 116 carries, he needs to prove that he was worth the first-round pick the Cardinals selected him with in 2009.
Injuries obviously played a big role in his struggles last year, and by selecting Ryan Williams with the 38th pick in this year's draft, Arizona seemed to be admitting they weren't confident in relying on Wells going forward.
Arizona now has a backfield crowded with young running backs, which means either that they are considering utilizing the largest platoon since "Platoon," or either Wells or Tim Hightower may be moving on.
Washington Redskins: Albert Haynesworth
7 of 32
Fact: In the past 12 months, Albert Haynesworth has been involved in more lawsuits than quarterback sacks.
Fact: Albert Haynesworth is entering just the third year of his $100 million contract.
Fact: Albert Haynesworth has played in just 20 games in the first two years, starting 12 of them.
Fiction: Albert Haynesworth is racially neutral when considering potential partners.
Fiction: The Washington Redskins are going to have an easy time moving Albert Haynesworth.
Tennessee Titans: Cortland Finnegan
8 of 32Not only did he get smacked around by Andre Johnson in a highly public way (while sporting a hairstyle strangely reminiscent of Pauly D from "Jersey Shore), but he was the leader of a cornerback unit that allowed over 4,000 yards and a 65.6 percent completion rate through the air. It wasn't as though the Titans didn't bring pressure either, as they finished tied for eighth in the league in sacks.
San Francisco 49ers: Alex Smith
9 of 32
This is a different kind of pressure. Not the pressure of trying to keep his job (because it's gone) or of trying to get his team over the top (because that was last year and it didn't happen).
Alex Smith has the pressure of knowing that this will likely be the last season of his career as a starting quarterback in the NFL. Colin Kaepernick was drafted to replace him, and Smith's career 51 TDs to 53 INTs won't keep him at bay for very long.
But hey, it took his new coach Jim Harbaugh nine NFL season before he finally had a good one, so I guess you never know what can happen.
Note: A bitter Bears fan possessed me and wrote that last sentence.
Minnesota Vikings: Jared Allen
10 of 32
He entered second half of the season with just one sack before coming alive to finish the season with a solid eleven.
Still, his he was off the pace of his previous three seasons, and this year we will find out whether the first half was an outlier or if he's slowing down a bit.
Add that he's hoping for 17 sacks this season and the NFL took away his cowboy dance, and you're looking at a man with something to prove.
Houston Texans: Mario Williams
11 of 32
He'll be asked to make the move to 6'6" 295 pound linebacker this year, with Wade "Don't Think I Can't Make You Underperform" Phillips coming into town.
If this works, Williams could turn into the most exciting defensive player in the league and transform a Texans defense that was just terrible at everything last year. And in all honesty, things can't get any worse.
Alternately, taking arguably your most dynamic defensive player and asking him to switch to a position he's not really built to play is something that, well, probably only makes sense to a few people in the world.
Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford
12 of 32
If you can't stay on the field, you can't be a franchise quarterback.
Stafford has only managed 13 games in his first two seasons, and if the Lions are going to turn the ship around the way many expect them to, they're going to have to get a full or almost-full season out of him.
Dallas Cowboys: Terence Newman
13 of 32
There was plenty of blame to go around for the Cowboys collapse last season, but of the two units the defense was clearly the weaker link.
Newman did have five interceptions last year, but also set a career low in pass deflections. His tackles were also way up, which, for a corner, often means that too many passes are being caught by the receivers you're guarding.
If Newman is able to regain his Pro Bowl form, it will go a long way towards sparking a quick turnaround in Dallas.
St. Louis Rams: Mark Clayton
14 of 32
Appeared to be developing a good rapport with Sam Bradford before being derailed by injury last year.
This team needs someone to emerge as a consistent target, because by the end of the season I think Bradford was throwing passes to St. Louis Metro drivers.
No one on the team had more than three touchdown catches or 700 yards receiving.
Seattle Seahawks: Marcus Trufant
15 of 32
Trufant just turned 30, and is the defensive stalwart for the Seahawks, having played in Seattle for his entire career. After making the playoffs last year with a losing record, Seattle shocked the Saints before falling to the Bears in the divisional round.
If they are going to improve on last year, it will have to start with pass defense, where the Seahawks ranked 27th in the league last season. And in Seattle, pass defense starts with Trufant.
Miami Dolphins: Chad Henne
16 of 32
After the Dolphins failed to draft a quarterback in this year's draft, the Chad Henne era seems destined to continue.
The guy is an interception machine and had among the worst down-field throwing percentages in the league last year. In six games (weeks 3-9) last year, he threw 10 picks and was benched for Chad Pennington who shattered into shards of glass on the first possession of the game. Henne came back, threw another INT, and Tyler Thigpen started the following week.
Pretty amazing after all this that Henne will essentially enter the season as the only viable QB option for the Fins, unless they plan on making a trade. But this seems unlikely.
Oakland Raiders: Trevor Scott
17 of 32
Entering his second year since converting from a linebacker to a defensive end, Scott needs to help the Raiders shore up a porous run defense from last season.
With Nnamdi Asomugha locking down opponents' top receivers, the Raiders should be free to load up in the box to stop the opponent's run. This was not the case for the 2010 Raiders, however, and with Scott contributing little in terms of sacks, he really needs to hold his place on the right side of the line and prevent holes from opening.
If he fails to do so, Al Davis may go "Walking Dead" on his ass.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Rashean Mathis
18 of 32
I wonder if something happened to Rashean Mathis. In the three years leading up to his Pro Bowl selection in 2006, he deflected an average 19 passes per year and had 18 interceptions (5,5,8). In the subsequent four season he has averaged just seven deflections and picked off just nine.
He has missed some games because of injury, but still, that is a pretty remarkable drop and is threatening his position as an NFL starter. The Jaguars were the only NFL team to allow a completion rate of over 50 percent on passes of over 15 yards last season, and for Mathis' own sake and for the sake of the team, he really needs to stay closer to his man.
San Diego Chargers: Ryan Matthews
19 of 32
I have a feeling a lot of people (read: fantasy football players) hate this guy after last season. The most highly touted rookie entering last years FF pool, Matthews disappointed, finding himself on the wrong end of a timeshare and topping 100 yards only once.
That's why you shouldn't draft rookies in the first two rounds Wally.
The Chargers seemed to spend much of their brain power trying to figure out how to keep Matthews healthy, and when he finally received over 20 carries for the first time (26, Week 17) he went off for 120 yards and three touchdowns.
The guy is only 23 and had a decent rookie season (4.3 AVG, 7 TDs)... I'm starting to suspect I chose Matthews here just so I could take a cheap shot at one of my buddies. Oh well.
By the way he drafted Carson Palmer and Brett Favre too.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Stylez G. White
20 of 32
The defensive line as a whole was a major issue; the Bucs drafted 3 D-lineman in this year's draft.
Because I've committed myself to choosing just one player from each team, though, I'm going to go with Stylez G. White, because he has the added pressure of living up to such an amazing name.
I like how he of all people decides to use the middle initial, because I'm sure he's getting confused with all the other Stylez Whites out there.
Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Vick
21 of 32
This is a pretty obvious selection because the Eagles pretty much wagered their future on the fact that Vick can maintain last year's level of play for an extended period of time.
While his numbers remained consistent throughout the season, didn't you get the impression that teams caught up to him a little bit by the playoffs? And now that teams know he's going to be the starter they won't have to make any on-the-fly schematic adjustments when they had been preparing for Kevin Kolb.
Kevin Kolb now becomes a must-trade because Vick's window, though expanded by his time away from the game, is certainly not huge.
But if he can play like he did and stay healthy, you have to believe the Eagles have to think the rest of the NFC is in for a dogfight next year.
Damn it.
New York Giants: Matt Dodge
22 of 32That's right, I went there. I picked a punter.
But really, who else is there? Interceptions were a huge problem last year but I don't think Eli Manning's job is in any danger. Tom Coughlin is really probably the closest person on the team to being fired, but this article is about players, not coaches.
The Giants really played well on both sides of the ball, and if it weren't for some unfortunate turnovers and the play above they would have been in the playoffs.
So, Matt Dodge, the onus falls on you.
Kansas City Chiefs: Mike Vrabel
23 of 32
I don't want to pick on such an established veteran, but time may be running out for Vrabel.
He was one of the least relevant players on a decent but not great defense, and by drafting two linebackers the Chiefs may consider exploring other options.
I'm sure getting caught stealing booze from a casino at 5:30 in the morning won't help his case much either.
Indianapolis Colts: Charlie Johnson
24 of 32
When Peyton Manning is seemingly under constant pressure, you know something is wrong with the protection. Peyton Manning never gets pressured.
The Colts drafted offensive linemen with their first two selections, and upgrading the blindside blocking will be their primary concern.
New Orleans Saints: Pierre Thomas
25 of 32
With such a perfectly French-American name for playing in New Orleans, I'm shocked that Thomas sputtered like he did last year.
Injury limited Pierre to just 83 carries and caused the Saints to draft Mark Ingram in the first round of the draft. The Saints will probably run out a huge platoon like last year (five backs had 30 or more carries), but throwing Ingram into the mix could really limit Pierre's opportunities.
Baltimore Ravens: Torrey Smith/Tandon Doss
26 of 32
Smith and Doss will be expected to contribute right out of the gate, as no one else on Baltimore is capable of stretching the defense even a little.
Torrey ran a 4.43 forty at the Combine and, uh, combine that with a 41 inch vertical and Joe Flacco must be jumping for joy that, for a change, not everyone on the defense will be within fifteen yards of the line of scrimmage.
Tandon is a big receiver with good burst off the line of scrimmage, and could have comparable skills to Smith. The Ravens were clearly volume-picking here in hope that at least one of these guys will be ready to start on opening day.
Atlanta Falcons: Curtis Lofton
27 of 32Lofton emerged as the leader of the Falcons' defense in 2009, and continued to perform as such last year, totaling 92 tackles, three forced fumbles, three pass deflections, two sacks and an interception.
He will need to stay in top form this year as Stephen Nicholas' future with the team is in question and Mike Peterson will turn 35 this year.
Lofton may find himself saddled with the task of incorporating two young linebackers (Sean Weatherspoon and Akeem Dent) into the rotation around him. This is only his fourth season.
New England Patriots: Brandon Tate
28 of 32
Similarly to the Ravens, the Patriots need a player that can stretch the defense now that Randy Moss is gone. Tate should be that guy, as he has demonstrated blazing speed in the return game.
While his yards per catch was high (18), he only managed to pull in 24 catches while playing in all 16 games, and starting 10 of them. He needs to become a reliable pass-catcher down field to open things up for Welker, Branch and the duo of tight ends underneath.
New York Jets: Shaun Ellis
29 of 32
Shaun Ellis will be entering his 12th season with the Jets, and the team's biggest flaw last year was its inability to create consistent pressure with the defensive line. This caused many of their blitzes to fall short, leaving the secondary exposed.
Speaking of exposed... never mind.
I wouldn't say that Ellis is done yet for sure, but his tackles and sacks both declined last year and 11 years in the trenches must surely have some effect on a player.
Chicago Bears: Devin Hester
30 of 32Hopefully this is not in memoriam, as the changes in NFL rules may make kick returns obsolete.
If returns are significantly diminished this year, Hester will need to figure out his role on the team. It seems pretty clear at this point that he will never be a consistent threat at wide receiver. Hopefully Mike Martz can figure out some gimmicky ways to use him, maybe a Josh Cribbs type of role where he can see the ball 10-12 times a game... and hopefully it won't involve too much route-running because that's just not his thing.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Rashard Mendenhall
31 of 32
Uhh, probably should stay off Twitter for a little while right?
This won't be the biggest deal though. I mean, if the Steelers stuck with Roethlisberger through all that, then this will quickly be water under the bridge, right?
Not so sure about that. Roethlisberger has been the starting quarterback on two Super Bowl winning teams, while Mendenhall has a 3.77 yards per carry average in three career playoff games.
Just saying.
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers
32 of 32
This guy is under about as much pressure as Mickey Mouse. Maybe less, as Mickey sees it necessary to wear a helmet in that car, while Rodgers just free rolls it.
I know the NFL is an intensely critical league, but I'm pretty sure Aaron Rodgers could be revealed as the JonBenet Ramsey killer and would still get elected mayor or senator or whatever he decided to run for.
Damn cheeseheads.
I'm just kidding.
Hopefully we can all unite with the common hope that the labor dispute will soon be settled, that football will be played next year and that I didn't just spend three-and-a half-hours writing about a season that will never take place.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Post-June 1 Trade Candidates ☎️")
.JPG?w=600 "TO Talks Cowboys Relationship")
.jpg?w=600 "Taylor Heinicke Retiring")
.jpg?w=600 "49ers OC Hypes Mike Evans 🤩")