2011 NFL Predictions: 25 Under the Radar Players Poised to Break Out This Year
Whether a byproduct of media market, lack of opportunity or criminal omission, there is an abundance of great NFL players who few recognize despite their standout play. They are hardly, if ever mentioned on Sportscenter, and the common NFL folk probably won't recognize them by name.
Essentially, the following 25 players hover under the national radar—but they won't for much longer. The 2011 season should provide an opportune time for all of them to either emerge as stars, earn starting roles or fulfill their high draft pick billings. Assuming we ever actually have a season, watch out for the following players because you'll start hearing their names soon.
No. 25: Kareem Jackson
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In 2009, the Texans' secondary was the team's Achilles' heel. It ranked 18th in the NFL, and things got gloomy once franchise cornerback Dunta Robinson bolted for free agency. In order to combat his departure, the team spent their 2010 first round pick on Alabama corner Kareem Jackson.
Jackson's rookie season was rather rocky, but that is to be expected from a corner thrown into the gauntlet against oppositions' number one receivers (A similar situation transpired with Vontae Davis). With a full season's experience and a year to hone his skills, Jackson could progress into the first round talent he was projected to be.
No. 24: Donald Brown
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As Donald Brown enters the third year of his young career, everybody is still waiting for the 2009 first round pick to break out and aid the Colts' anemic rushing attack. However, patience is wearing thin, and Indianapolis reacted by drafting Delone Carter in the fourth round of the draft.
If Indy lets Joseph Addai slide into free agency, the door opens for Brown to fulfill his potential. He has averaged a measly 3.75 yards per carry thus far, but history has proven that virtually anybody can succeed in Peyton Manning's offense. Brown has great size and skill, now it is just a matter of adjusting to the NFL game.
No. 23: Ben Tate
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Had Ben Tate not suffered a season ending ankle injury during the first game of the 2010 preseason, he might have seized the Texans' starting running back role. Instead, the 2010 second round pick watched from the sidelines as Arian Foster became a star.
But the NFL is now a "running back by committee" league. Foster recorded 327 carries last season—a troubling high number that the Texans will surely want to lower. Houston will probably allot plenty of carries to Tate in order to keep Foster fresh, but expect Tate to make the most of his workload and become a dangerous runner.
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No. 22: Gerald McCoy
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Last summer, there was a raging debate over Gerald McCoy or Ndamukong Suh. Analysts debated which defensive tackle would be selected first, and which would enjoy a more successful career. Naturally, the two will be forever compared.
After their rookie seasons, Suh is obviously miles ahead, but keep in mind that he played alongside Kyle Vanden Bosch. McCoy was featured in one of the worst defensive lines in football, and subsequently struggled for most of his rookie season. However, Tampa Bay picked up Adrian Clayborn and Da'Quan Bowers during the 2011 draft, both of whom should immediately bolster the Bucs' front seven and allow McCoy to thrive.
No. 21: Tim Tebow
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No NFL chatter is complete without mention of Tim Tebow, but he most definitely deserves a spot in this list. The biggest obstacle for Tebow and his 2011 outlook is Kyle Orton. Before he can break out, Tebow has to actually dethrone Orton (who might be traded anyway) and earn a starting role.
There's no doubt Tebow possesses the physical tools to be a great quarterback, but this may just be a matter of grooming and grasping the complexities of an NFL offense. However, he played surprisingly well during his two starts at the tail end of the 2010 season. With a full season as the team's unquestioned starter, Tebow might become, at the very least, a serviceable starter for a rebuilding franchise.
No. 20: T.J. Ward
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Cleveland's 2010 second round pick T.J. Ward was the unsung hero of the Browns' defense. While first round pick Joe Haden absorbed most of the credit for the secondary's improvement, Ward was arguably equally responsible for the unit's success.
Ward racked up 123 tackles and two interceptions during his rookie season, setting lofty expectations for 2011. Now that the Browns project to boast a vastly improved pass rush, things could be even easier for Ward, who should become a notable name around the league very soon.
No. 19: Anthony Armstrong
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Even through the disarray that tormented the Redskins offense, rookie wide receiver Anthony Armstrong managed to snatch 44 receptions for 871 yards and three touchdowns—an average of 19.5 yards per catch.
Things seem to be settling into place in Washington. Mike Shanahan brought two running backs and a promising possession receiver on board, and John Beck figures to overtake quarterback duties. With a stable quarterback in place and a year of experience under his belt, Armstrong has the potential to break out as the 'Skins primary deep threat, and one the league will soon come to know.
No. 18: Cliff Avril
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The Detroit Lions' 2008 draft class has shaped to be an absolutely abysmal one. The team's first three selections (Gosder Cherilus, Jordon Dizon, and Kevin Smith) are all busts. But, third round pick Cliff Avril is not only the sole productive player from that class, but is quickly becoming a dominant defensive end.
Avril posted a career high 8.5 sacks in 2010, adding three onto his previous high of 5.5. Not only is Avril inclined to improve his numbers and pass rushing skills, but with Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley terrorizing teams up the middle, he may become an afterthought for offenses. He could easily register double digits sacks in 2011.
No. 17: C.J. Spiller
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During the 2010 NFL Draft, some pinned Clemson running back C.J. Spiller as the most talented player in the entire class. After all, Spiller clocked a 4.37 40-yard dash at the combine, and had just completed an illustrious collegiate career.
Hoping to inject some life and explosiveness into one of the league's worst offenses, the Bills used the ninth overall pick on Spiller even though they already had Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson under contract. Buffalo soon traded Lynch, but even then, Spiller carried the ball only 74 times for 283 yards. He did add 24 receptions, but 2011 should be a different story. Spiller is seething with speed and skill, and Chan Gailey will want to get his former first round pick on the field early and often next season.
No. 16: Michael Crabtree
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Everybody loves to pinpoint Alex Smith as the scapegoat for the 49ers' woes, but the absence of a great wide receiver may also be at the root of their problems. San Francisco used a top 10 draft pick on Michael Crabtree two years ago, and while he hasn't lived up to his first round billing yet, he displayed promising improvements during his sophomore season.
Now entering his third NFL season, Crabtree might be poised to make the leap into stardom. He made great statistical strides in 2010, but still didn't pose a significant threat to defenses. With another year to hone his skills, however, 2011 could be Crabtree's breakout season.
No. 15: Charles Johnson
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Playing on the league's most futile team hampers the public rise of any player, but it especially slows the rise of an under the radar player. Carolina Panthers defensive end Charles Johnson blew up for 11.5 sacks last season, leaving him just four shy of the league leader.
Johnson also racked up 62 tackles, a wildly impressive number for a defensive end. The Panthers bolstered their interior defensive line during the draft, and that should free up some space for Johnson to continue wreaking havoc on opposing backfields. He has steadily improved his numbers throughout his four year career, so there is no reason to believe Johnson won't continue to do so, and become one of the most feared pass rushers in the NFL.
No. 14: Tramon Williams
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While Packers' cornerback Charles Woodson continues to cement his status as one of the game's best, another Green Bay defensive back is slowly creeping into elite territory.
Tramon Williams intercepted six passes during the 2010 regular season, but didn't garner any recognition until the postseason when he picked off another three—including two against the Falcons in the divisional round. Williams should begin to work against oppositions' number one receivers, and that should give him even more exposure.
No. 13: Jimmy Graham
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Jimmy Graham is the latest converted college basketball player making an impact in the NFL, but he is yet to surface on the league's radar. The New Orleans Saints drafted Graham with a third round pick last season, and the former Miami Hurricane forward dominated down the stretch of the 2010 regular season.
He caught a combined four touchdowns during the Saints' final three regular season games. With Jeremy Shockey gone, Graham will likely assume the number one tight end role in a very pass-happy offense. He and Drew Brees already appear to have great chemistry, and it should only improve over the course of the off-season.
No. 12: Vontae Davis
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Brett Favre called Dolphins cornerback Vontae Davis "the best corner that nobody knows about." Actually, Favre referred to him as "number 21," which is even more representative of Davis' anonymity.
Now entering his third NFL season, Davis will continue to anchor Miami's secondary—a unit routinely faced with the daunting task of facing the Patriots and Jets twice per year. Thus far, he has been quietly spectacular, so it's only a matter of time before the rest of the league begins to take notice. If Sean Smith breaks out, then he and Davis will likely surface on the NFL's radar together.
No. 11: Curtis Lofton
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Technically, 2009 was Curtis Lofton's breakout season. He anchored the Falcons' linebacker corps, racking up 133 tackles. However, he received hardly any recognition. Last season, Lofton proved he was no fluke, amassing 118 tackles. Still, no recognition.
So, perhaps 2011 will be the year Lofton bursts onto the national radar. He is only entering his fourth season in the league, so there is no reason to believe he will not continue progressing. His statistical achievements are astounding, and with another year of great success, Lofton might begin to receive some real accolades for his play.
No. 10: Jonathan Stewart
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The departure of DeAngelo Williams to free agency opens the door for Jonathan Stewart to seize the feature role he was initially drafted to fulfill in 2008.
Health will be the key for Stewart in 2011. The oft injured back has been repeatedly plagued by an assortment of injuries since his days at Oregon. Last season, Stewart's absence opened the door for Mike Goodson to break out, and he will likely cut into Stewart's workload.
Statistically, 2010 was Stewart's worst NFL season. But, in 2011, the Panthers will be inclined to place a heavier emphasis on the running game, which bodes very well for his outlook and breakout potential.
No. 9: Carlos Dunlap
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Every draft class has its enigmas—"bad character" prospects with red flags. For some, like Cam Newton, potential outweighs external issues, and their draft stocks proceed unaffected. But others are not so lucky. Former University of Florida defensive end Carlos Dunlap, initially pinned as a sure-fire first round prospect, was arrested for a DUI prior to the draft, and consequently fell into the second round (to who else but the Bengals).
Once Dunlap actually got onto an NFL field, he quickly reminded everybody why he was so heralded at Florida, finishing the 2010 season with 9.5 sacks—the most amongst rookies. Dunlap should be able to build off of his rookie numbers and establish himself as a terrorizing pass rusher.
No. 8: Eric Berry
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Chiefs safety Eric Berry drew comparisons to Ed Reed prior to the 2010 NFL Draft, and during the season, he proved those comparisons may soon prove valid. Berry enjoyed a fruitful rookie campaign, recording 92 tackles, four interceptions, and an impressive highlight reel.
Despite a top-five selection, Berry flew under the radar last season. He is clearly en route to stardom, and another successful season for Kansas City will likely translate to more exposure for Berry. Expect him to work his way into the Pro Bowl conversation in 2011.
No. 7: LaGarrette Blount
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Through the first five weeks of the 2010 season, LeGarrette Blount recorded just 10 carries for 30 yards. The controversial rookie looked like nothing more than depth chart fodder for Tampa Bay before he exploded for 997 yards and six touchdowns over the final 11 games of the year.
Although some speculated they might, the Bucs chose not to pursue a running back during the Draft. With Cadillac Williams slated for free agency, Blount is in line to assume Tampa Bay's primary rushing duties. And if 2010 is any indication, Blount could soon be Pro Bowl bound.
No. 6: Joe Haden
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Some might already consider Browns cornerback Joe Haden a star. As a rookie in 2010, he intercepted six passes and racked up 64 tackles, but was hardly recognized for his incredible season.
Perhaps Cleveland's struggles and small-market location restricted Haden from surfacing as a star, but another season like his first should have him in the Pro Bowl. (Side note: Mike Holmgren's first draft class as Cleveland's football czar is shaping up to be a great one: Haden, Ward, McCoy)
No. 5: Mike Wallace
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What more does Mike Wallace have to do? Statistically, the Steelers wide receiver has already broken out. He caught 60 passes for nearly 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2010, yet he is not even the most recognizable name in his own receiving corps.
Wallace is arguably the league's deadliest deep threat, and he might have been one of 2010's biggest Pro Bowl snubs. With another amazing season, Wallace will definitely emerge as a star, and perhaps the face of Pittsburgh's offense.
No. 4: Sam Bradford
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With one full year of experience under his belt and an incoming draft class studded with offensive weapons, Sam Bradford projects to make great strides from 2010.
Although he led the Rams to an amazing turnaround, Bradford actually posted very modest numbers. He finished the season with a measly 76.5 quarterback rating, but the arrivals of rookies Lance Kendricks, Austin Pettis, and Greg Salas might provide Bradford with enough ammo to post top tier numbers in 2011.
Obviously, time will tell if any of these incoming rookies will pan out. However, if they do, Bradford could easily toss upwards of 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns this season.
No. 3: Sean Smith
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There is only one petty issue keeping Sean Smith from establishing himself as an elite cornerback: hands. According to Football Outsiders, Smith dropped five interceptions in 2010. Had he held onto those errant passes, he could have easily earned a Pro Bowl nod.
Smith has freakish athletic ability for his 6'3" frame making his hands the sole factor restricting him from stardom. So long as he can actually catch the football in 2011, Smith should be Pro Bowl bound. And if he continues progressing into his third season, he could become a household name.
No. 2: Ryan Mathews
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During the 2010 NFL Draft, Chargers G.M. A.J. Smith traded up from 28 to 13 in order to ensure that San Diego got their hands on Fresno State running back Ryan Mathews. After a very substandard and injury plagued rookie season, Mathews may be primed for a breakout campaign in 2011.
Mathews missed four games last season, but still finished with an admirable 4.3 yards per carry average and racked up seven touchdowns. Norv Turner will likely allot plenty of carries to Mike Tolbert, but that shouldn't prevent Mathews from becoming the focal point of San Diego's offense.
No. 1: Josh Freeman
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Despite a tremendous sophomore campaign, Josh Freeman is still hovering below the national radar. Sure, most NFL fans know who he is, but few seem to grasp how good he is. Last season, he threw for nearly 3,500 yards and posted an amazing 25:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Perhaps Freeman would have broached stardom had the Buccaneers reached the playoffs. Instead, he might have to wait another year to grab America's attention. Receivers Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn should build off of promising rookie seasons to provide Freeman with a deadlier arsenal—a scary proposition for Tampa Bay's NFC West foes.
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