Fantasy Baseball: Top 10 Hitters to Buy Low On
Around this time of the season, I begin going over potential players I can attain at a discounted price from impatient or unknowledgeable owners. You will hear me use a lot of sabermetric luck stats, such as BABIP and HR/FB%, in a piece like this.
As for the top 10, I judged them on a combination of upside, how bad the slump has been, confidence said player will rebound, and discount price or how much you'd probably have to give up. I am also assuming basic 5x5 scoring.
10. Jason Heyward
1 of 10
2011 stats: 7 HR, 18 R, 14 RBI, 2 SB, .226 Average
With his seven homers, I think it'll be hard to get a discount on Heyward, but it could still be possible with that .226 average. His .241 BABIP is much lower than expected and should rise with his batting average.
That low BABIP number doesn't appear to be all bad luck, though, with only an 11.7 line-drive percentage. Even though line-drive rate stabilizes at just 150 plate appearances, I have a hard time buying such a talented player with a line-drive rate that low.
Heyward should be able to hit at least .265 the rest of the way. If Dan Uggla returns to form, Heyward's runs scored should rise as well.
9. Carlos Gonzalez
2 of 10
2011 stats: 2 HR, 17 R, 16 RBI, 4 SB, .241 Average
The preseason borderline-first-round pick will still draw a tough bargain, but certainly less than what it would have cost before now. Some owners may have been wrongly expecting another season with at least 30 homers and .330 average.
A .283 BABIP, 65 points below his career mark, is bound to improve. His 9.1 percent home run per fly ball rate is also below his career 15.7 percent mark. However, he is also hitting fewer fly balls by far in general this year (24.2 percent).
Gonzalez should still be able to hit over .290 the rest of the way along with 20 homers, both of which will help increase his runs and RBIs.
8. Andrew McCutchen
3 of 10
2011 stats: 5 HR, 17 R, 17 RBI, 5 SB, .228 Average
Unfortunately, I do not think you will be able to get a decent discount, since his numbers, with the exception of his average, are in line with expectations. Like most on this list, the BABIP fairy has not been kind—59 points below his career norm.
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7. Adam Dunn
4 of 10
2011 stats: 3 HR, 8 R, 14 RBI, 0 SB, .167 Average
Dunn would never be confused with a .300 hitter but .167 is just ridiculous. A .224 BABIP is below his career .294. He can certainly raise his average back up to near .240 before the year is out. Also, don't forget that his low average hurts less because of his higher walk rate.
Typically an on-base machine, his deflated average has limited his opportunity to score runs. When his average rises, so will his runs scored.
With the move to home run-friendly U.S. Cellular Field in the offseason, another 40-homer season was expected. He's far off the pace thus far, attributed to a 10.0 percent HR/FB rate. Thirty more homers for the rest of the season is certainly attainable.
6. Shin-Soo Choo
5 of 10
2011 stats: 4 HR, 16 R, 17 RBI, 6 SB, .225 Average
Shin-Soo Choo will still cost a pretty penny, as only his poor average stands out to owners. A BABIP almost 100 points below your career mark will certainly do that to an average. Ending the season above .270 is attainable.
Unlike McCutchen, Shin-Soo Choo has the benefit of a surprisingly good Cleveland offense around him.
5. Mark Reynolds
6 of 10
2011 stats: 3 HR, 14 R, 15 RBI, 0 SB, .187 Average
Personally, I am not a Mark Reynolds fan for fantasy baseball, and I probably still wouldn't trade for him. However, third base is a thin position, and some of you may actually like him.
Before the season he was being drafted around the ninth round. Now he could possibly be found in the free agency pool depending on how deep your league is. Even if he's not a free agent, I'm sure an owner wouldn't ask for much.
Many may not realize it, but he's been making the most contact of his career, which typically would also help his average. However, his BABIP is 81 points below his career norm. He still won't be an average machine, but at least .225 the rest of the way is very possible.
Even though he's no longer in Arizona, his HR/FB rate should not be only 8.8 percent. He's still in his prime years and has 30-homer power.
Also be aware that he should get a handful of stolen bases.
4. Alex Rios
7 of 10
2011 stats: 3 HR, 18 R, 9 RBI, 4 SB, .222 Average
Rios has gone through season-long slumps before (2009), and with rumors of a hurt big toe, some owners could be worried about another similar season. With a horrendous .222 BABIP to date, I'd expect him to hit at least .260 the rest of the way.
His nine RBI is extremely low, but much of that is a result of his low BABIP and being 133rd in the majors in plate appearances with runners on.
Another 20/20 season is still possible.
3. Dan Uggla
8 of 10
2011 stats: 5 HR, 14 R, 11 RBI, 1 SB, .226 Average
The power is still there, but his .226 BABIP is killing his average. It's also hurting his RBI, as it's just .182 with runners in scoring position. I'm still confident in another .250 season with 25-plus homers.
2. Hanley Ramirez
9 of 10
2011 stats: 1 HR, 16 R, 13 RBI, 7 SB, .195 Average
It will still cost an arm and a leg to trade for Hanley, but it is at least more possible now compared to before the season. He's been a bit flaky toward his teammates, but I do not believe that takes away from his abilities.
Like Jason Heyward earlier, his line-drive rate is surprisingly low at 11.3 percent. It certainly plays a part in his unsustainable .229 BABIP (over 110 points below his career average!), but he's too good of a player for that to continue. He may not hit .300 this year, he should still rise above .270.
Only one homer is a result of a 3.6 percent HR/FB rate—down from a career average of 13.1 percent. Hitters in their prime typically do not lose all of their power overnight. Another cause is his 28.9 percent ground-ball rate, a drop of almost 13 percent. Fortunately, ground-ball rate is not statistically reliable with less than 200 plate appearances.
1. Carl Crawford
10 of 10
2011 stats: 1 HR, 11 R, 7 RBI, 5 SB, .211 Average
A significant drop in his numbers across the board, a drop to the eighth spot in the lineup and all the publicity that comes with the Red Sox could lead to an owner making a big mistake and selling off Crawford for a good discount.
His swing and contact percentages are consistent with his career, his HR/FB rate is horrible and a BABIP 90 points lower than last year tell me it's just been a run of horrible luck—not just taking it easy after landing a big contract.
The Boston offense has a whole has been sluggish, and like Crawford, it will rebound, helping out with his runs and RBI. A rise in his .160 BABIP with runners in scoring position will help his RBI numbers as well.
In an ESPN free league I was actually able to trade Alex Gordon and Jhoulys Chacin for Crawford and Derek Lowe, so I know there are impatient owners out there.While he will not match last year's numbers, 15 homers, 80 runs, 70 RBI and 35 steals with a .280 average is still probable.
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