EPL: Ranking the Relegation Rivals and Predicting Their Survival Chances
With the top of the Premier League now looking pretty stable, I felt it time to look at the battle to avoid the drop and still be playing at the top tier next season.
Premier League survival is often the main aim of the weaker clubs, but why? Well aside from the glory of playing in arguably the world's foremost league for both players and fans alike, the most important aspect of survival is financial.
A spot in next year's competition is likely to be worth around £20 million, a huge amount for most of the clubs listed here.
After this weekend's round of matches there are seven teams that could potentially go down. This article will look at each of those teams and assess their survival chances, taking into account the next two games.
Teams are listed from least likely to go down to almost certain to be playing Championship football next season.
7. Aston Villa
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Barring a catastrophe of unheard sorts, Aston Villa are safe.
Whilst their last two games, away at Arsenal and then Liverpool at home, are both difficult encounters, Villa's potential relegation requires either Blackpool or Wigan winning their next two and overhauling nine goals.
However, Villa fans will be questioning why are they still in a position where relegation is a possibility. Having finished sixth last season and missing out on League Cup success through a couple of questionable refereeing decisions, this campaign has marked an alarming slump in form.
With key players such as Ashley Young and Stewart Downing being linked with summer moves away, and the deterioration of manager Gerard Houllier's health, fans will be hoping this season is an anomaly.
6. Birmingham City
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Another team that at the beginning of the season would have been hoping for a top half finish. Instead they are in a relegation battle. Football, eh?
Like their close city rivals Villa, I expect to see Birmingham playing Premier League football next season.
Although the weekend's loss at Newcastle has left them perilously close to the drop, they have an upcoming home game against a notoriously poor travelling Fulham side, then a last day clash at Tottenham, who are likely to be playing for nothing.
Manager Alex McLeish has more than enough tactical nous to guide the Carling Cup winners away from the zone.
5. Wolves
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Having spent most of the season in the relegation zone, Wolves have started to pick up points when it matters.
A good 3-1 win over West Brom over the weekend lifted them out of the relegation zone, and I don't think we'll see them back in there this season.
Out of all the teams listed here, Wolves probably have the easiest run-in with a very winnable away day at the shaky Sunderland and a last day match against fellow strugglers Blackburn at Molineux.
Aided by the imminent return of key striker Kevin Doyle, Mick McCarthy's side should have enough left to see out the season.
4. Blackburn
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Joint third, I hear you say? Well, it represents the fact that I just cannot pick between Rovers and the team on the next slide.
Rovers boss Steve Kean has said if his side manage just one point from the next two games, he is confident of survival.
Whilst I'm inclined to agree with him, that one point is going to be a hard find. Their next match sees a Manchester United side visiting, intended to secure their 19th League crown. The following match is an away day at Wolves, a match that could save or sentence either side.
Last season, Sam Alladyce guided the Riversiders to 10th position. Although his views of the club may not of fit in line with those of his new overlords at Ewood Park, I'm sure they would have preferred that to what they are currently seeing.
3. Blackpool
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What a breath of fresh air Blackpool have provided this season.
Most, if not all, pundits' favourite to be already relegated by this point of the season. Blackpool have hit back at doubters playing attractive attacking football and only recently did they find themselves in the relegation zone, the first time this season.
However, the joys of the first half of the season have been tempered with some very deep lows in the second half. The Seasiders have won only twice since the turn of the year, and most likely need four points from the remaining six to avoid relegation.
Their next game is a must win, at home to Bolton. Bloomfield Road will be rocking, manager Ian Holloway will know how to get the best out of his troops and I expect them to get the win.
It's the second game that causes the problem though. A trip to Old Trafford to face, in all likelihood at least, the new Premier League Champions Manchester United.
All is not lost, however. With one eye on the Champions League final, Man Utd manager Sir Alex Ferguson is likely to play a depleted team. And, if you cast your minds back to 2007 when a relegation threatened West Ham beat Man Utd at Old Trafford confirming their Premier League status, it's not impossible.
Personally, I do hope we see Blackpool in the top flight next season.
2. West Ham
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The first team I feel will definitely be relegated this season is West Ham.
Although I feel West Ham will claim victory in both their remaining fixtures, I think 39 points will be a total that gets you relegated, the highest relegation total since 2003 when West Ham again went down, with 42 points on the board.
West Ham's first match will come against the team on the next slide. West Ham have much more in every department, and provided that Scott Parker and Matthew Upson return, victory will be comfortable. The same goes for a season closing home match against Sunderland.
West Ham are too good to be playing Championship football, like Newcastle last season, but if they keep hold of the two players mentioned above, amongst others, they'll be straight back up for the start of the 2012-13 campaign.
1. Wigan
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And the winner of the Wooden Spoon goes to...
I'll apologise in advance to any Latics fans reading, but Wigan have been, by far, the worst team in the Premier League this season. Largely horrible to watch and spending vast swathes of the season at the bottom of the table, Wigan fully deserve relegation.
Although performances have picked up a little towards the end of the campaign, I'm afraid I can't see them picking up any more points from their remaining fixtures.
As noted in the previous slide, I believe West Ham will prevail in what will prove to be a dead rubber in their next fixture and I can't see them picking up anything at the fortress that is the Britannia Stadium when they travel to Stoke on the closing day.
So Championship football it is for Wigan, and here's hoping that if they do come up, things have improved at the DW Stadium.
