2011 NFL Lockout: Winners and Losers

Hmm, the NFL lockout—how much longer will it go on? I don't know about you, but I have stopped counting the days, and with this being Cinco de Mayo, I thought it fitting to celebrate with a large Margarita. Actually, I don't drink, but if I did—there would be plenty of tequila in this one.

The NFL lockout has been inconvenient, but it has taught us something very valuable: don't wait until the last minute to get things done. So you procrastinators, take note. This situation could have been averted long ago, but now it has gotten to a point where both sides have developed this mistrust, if you will, and litigation seems all too certain. I am not here to explore the machinations of this labor impasse. I am here to discuss who wins and who loses in this whole mess.

Winners:

Nobody really, but it's not so much winning the argument or the lawsuit, it's about coming to a mutual agreement where (eventually) everybody wins—players, fans, owners, vendors, advertisers, etc. Imagine if they are unable to pull this off before the season; what a disaster that will be for football, and that is why I believe they will get something done within the next month.

So, is it possible for the lockout to have winners? Teams that have stability—or were playoff teams last year because of the veteran rosters—as well as those having stability at key positions should still be okay. Teams that most likely will not skip a beat are as follows: Green Bay, New England, Chicago, Atlanta, New Orleans, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. I left out Indianapolis because they drafted several offensive linemen, and Indy's offense is known for its complexity, so the new linemen may need a little time to grasp the king's speech, if you will.  

Also, veteran teams with more stable situations are more likely to benefit from the lockout. I am sure some of the veteran players are okay with this lockout (for reasons other than financial) because of the mini-camps and OTA's they will not have to attend.

Traditionally, most teams hold their rookie mini-camp right after the draft and then have a subsequent mini-camp about a month later. Then there are the OTA's; many teams split these up into multiple sessions. I have provided the Minnesota Vikings schedule from last year:

Minicamps: April 30-May 2 (rookies), June 11-13
OTAs: May 18-21, May 24-27, June 1-4, June 7-8

As you can see, the rookie mini-camp window has already passed, and the first OTA is in jeopardy. Let's say the situation does not get resolved until the beginning of June; at best, teams will have just a few opportunities to get together to take advantage of OTA's, etc. However, my guess will be that the NFL will make special considerations for teams and allot them a certain number of extra days so they can adequately address personnel and team operational needs.

Let us not forget, each day that goes by without an agreement is one less day rookie agents can negotiate their contracts. Will we have a record number of rookies reporting late to camp as a result? It's safe to say that those players may fall into the "Those Who Lose" category.

A few months ago the general consensus was, "Yeah, yeah, yeah, we'll get something done soon." But as so often happens when agreements are not hashed out early, things seem to become uglier, and finger pointing ensues. Thus far, both sides have remained relatively civil, except for a few boneheads who allow their thumbs to do the talking for them on Twitter.

A piece of advice to those players enjoying the social networking world—think, I mean really think, before you hit "send." When it's out there, it's out there; the only thing left is apologizing after the fact, and how many of us have had to do that?  

Losers:

Well, everybody, right? Even when this is all said and done, there will be losers. So far it has been the fans and employees of these organizations. While millionaires discuss their issues, the common man sits and waits; somehow, that's the way it always seems to be. With that said, the real losers will be the rookies of this year's draft. They will not have the benefits of rookies in year's past, and conceivably could find themselves a year behind the learning curve.

Teams who have new quarterbacks, new coaches or key players they need to add will have a tough time. It is conceivable the following teams could struggle early on, and coincidentally contains several teams that drafted high: Carolina, Denver, Cincinnati, Arizona, Tennessee, Minnesota, and a few others.

I am an optimist and therefore believe that something will happen sooner rather than later. The amount of money, trust, and faith lost over a continued impasse will only damage the NFL's standing in the eyes of the public and could take years to restore.  

My prediction:

An agreement is struck by the end of May and June allows teams to conduct their OTA's, and by July, all teams will resume their regular camp schedule. Even though the NFL has built in a contingency plan that would cover the first three weeks of the season, for all of us, fans, players, vendors, employees, etc. let's hope it does not get to that point.

Last fall when the CBA was under heavy discussion by the media, most believed that this point would never come. Well it has, and it is my hope—and the hope of fans, players, employees, small business owners and whoever else is involved with this great game—that both parties will find an agreeable point to finally get this black eye cleaned up and to allow the greatest game on earth, to resume.