MLB Power Rankings: How Far the Rays Rose, the White Sox Fell, and a New No. 1
It's been a good week for the Tampa Rays, a horrible one for the Chicago White Sox and a great one for the Cleveland Indians. As we hit the month of May, how each team in baseball is playing is starting to become clear. Hot starts (like the Orioles) have cooled down and cold starts (like the Rays) have heated up. It's becoming easier and easier to see which teams have it and which don't this year.
I said this is last week's rankings (which you can see here: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/676326-mlb-power-rankings-ranking-all-30-teams-to-this-point-in-the-season), but I'll say it again: I rank each team through a formula based on the Pythagorean theorem taking into account runs scored and runs allowed. It's as simple as scoring more than you give up.
These rankings are from the beginning of the season to today, not a prediction of future events. The Pythagorean W-L is what their record would be if they keeping scoring and allowing runs at the rate they are now. With that, let's start the rankings by heading up north.
#30 Minnesota Twins (9-18)
1 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 43-119
Last Week: 29
There's just something not right in Minnesota. We're a month into the season and the Twins are the worst team in the league. Francisco Liriano has an ERA of 9.13, Justin Morneau has a .225/.287/.338 line and Joe Mauer's still out with no firm timetable to return. Not only are they dead last in runs allowed (5.52 per game), but they're also 29th in runs scored (3.15 per game). There's still five months ahead of us, but right now it's looking pretty grim for the Twins.
#29 Chicago White Sox (10-19)
2 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 61-101
Last Week: 23
I guess there's a reason the AL Central has a reputation for being a weak division. It's been a rough few weeks for the team that I picked to win their division this year. Not only are they on pace for 100 losses, their seemingly elite pitching is allowing 5.14 runs a game (ranking 26th in baseball). There's hope yet for the White Sox, but things are very bleak as we start May.
#28 Chicago Cubs (12-15)
3 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 62-100
Last Week: 25
We didn't have to go far to find the next team on rankings. Moving to the North Side, the Cubs are in almost as much trouble as the White Sox. They're still waiting on Carlos Pena to hit and Ryan Dempster to find any sort of groove. It's been far too long since the Cubs won anything, but they don't seem close to changing that this year.
.png?w=256)
#27 Houston Astros (11-17)
4 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 66-96
Last Week: 26
The offensive attack for the Astros hasn't been all that bad this year. They've scored 4.36 runs a game this year, 13th best in the majors. The problem comes when you're 29th in runs allowed (5.39 per game). Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez aren't pitching that poorly, but as a whole, Houston needs a major pitching upgrade.
#26 Los Angeles Dodgers (14-15)
5 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 66-96
Last Week: 21
Beyond Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, who else is supplying the offense for the Dodgers? James Loney? Aaron Miles? Jerry Sands should be great eventually, but he's not now. Clayton Kershaw and Hiroki Kuroda are pitching well, but at some point, the Dodgers will need more than the Kemp and Ethier show if they expect to keep winning ballgames. They've only scored 111 runs this year and have allowed 136. They're winning games now, but the way they're playing now, it won't keep up.
#25 Pittsburgh Pirates (13-15)
6 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 68-94
Last Week: 28
The Pirates have a bunch of good players, but no one great right now. Andrew McCutchen (.225/.331/.412) is capable of being great, but isn't there yet. Kevin Correia and Charlie Morton have pitched well, but aren't anywhere close to being aces. As they continue to develop this year, the Pirates will get better. Currently, however, they just don't have any transcendent players.
#24 Detroit Tigers (12-16)
7 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 68-94
Last Week: 14
All the pieces appear to be there in Detroit, and yet something's still off. They've gotten very good starting pitching from Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello. The offense packs a punch led by Miguel Cabrera and Alex Avila (with Victor Martinez on the mend). Austin Jackson's sophomore slump (.194/.269/.269, 37 strikeouts) and Magglio Ordonez's age catching up to him (.159/.227/.174) are the best culprits I see for Detroit's poor showing. With the roster they have, though, I don't expect the Tigers to be down for long. This week, however, the Tigers fall the farthest of anyone.
#23 San Diego Padres (11-17)
8 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 71-91
Last Week: 22
The great pitching in San Diego this year has all been wasted by the anemic offense the Padres trot out there night after night. Despite ace Mat Latos owning a 4.98 ERA this year, the Padres have only allowed 3.43 runs a game this year, good for 4th in the majors. At some point, the Padres need to something out of Brad Hawpe (.169/.211/.211) and Will Venable (.195/.295/.207). It's a shame watching all of this great pitching go to waste.
#22 Seattle Mariners (13-16)
9 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 72-90
Last Week: 30
What's gotten into the Mariners? Last week's last place team is all the way up to 22nd this week. Moving up those eight spots is tied for the highest rise this week.You know that Michael Pineda and Felix Hernandez are pitching well, but Doug Fister and his 2.70 ERA are just as responsible for Seattle's success. The offense has been doing just enough to get the Mariners some wins and will need to improve going forward, but for now, the Mariners are well out of the basement and have to be feeling good right about now.
#21 New York Mets (12-16)
10 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 74-88
Last Week: 20
Ike Davis, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and David Wright; with those four to build around, you'd think the Mets would be a little bit better. The problem is the lack of starting pitching. Johan Santana remains hurt, R.A. Dickey is hardly who you want to anchor your rotation on and Mike Pelfrey hasn't gotten it together yet this year (7.39 ERA). The Mets are close, but the whole team will need to play better before they improve this season.
#20 Baltimore Orioles (13-13)
11 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 75-87
Last Week: 27
The Orioles have the pitching, but they need real help on offense. Three of their big offseason moves (Mark Reynolds, Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero) own negative WARs and J.J. Hardy's is only just above zero. The Orioles have the start of something special going on, but it won't materialize this year without significant improvements from their veteran additions.
#19 Arizona Diamondbacks (12-15)
12 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 75-87
Last Week: 24
With the exception of Kelly Johnson, the entire Diamondbacks lineup has an OPS+ over 100. This team is scoring runs (4.85 per game, 7th in the majors) thanks in many parts to the emergence of Ryan Roberts and his tattoos. They need more in the pitching department, but the 2011 Diamondbacks under Kirk Gibson have me saying "I don't believe what I just saw."
#18 Washington Nationals (13-14)
13 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 76-86
Last Week: 19
The Nationals are hanging out in the teens of these rankings by being consistent. No one currently playing for this team jumps out at you, but they are getting the job done. They're not contending this year, but they've got help coming. 2011 has been a success for the Nationals so far in their trek from laughable to adequate.
#17 Boston Red Sox (12-15)
14 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 78-84
Last Week: 16
The brilliance of Jon Lester and Josh Beckett have been overshadowed by Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka's struggles. Adrian Gonzalez's arrival has been negated by Carl Crawford's abysmal April. The Red Sox are playing like an average team because that's all they are right now; every bright spot on this team is dulled by something else. Until they put all the pieces together, the Red Sox will remain 4th in the AL East in these rankings (and shouldn't look back because the Orioles are gaining on them).
#16 San Francisco Giants (13-14)
15 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 78-84
Last Week: 15
To this point in the season, only Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey have performed consistently on offense. With that duo halved now that Kung Fu Panda is on the DL, the Giants are in trouble. The defending champs were already 26th in runs scored (3.67 per game); what are they going to do without Sandoval in the lineup?
#15 Oakland A's (14-14)
16 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 82-80
Last Week: 9
The Athletics had their chance to strut their stuff against the Angels and Rangers this week and failed going 3-3. If you want to be one of the top teams in the league, you need to win more than half of your division games. If you go .500 for the week in those big games, you drop in these rankings. I still love the Cahill-Anderson-Gonzalez-McCarthy rotation, but they need to find some offense for heaven's sake. The best hitters on the team this year are Coco Crisp, Kurt Suzuki and Josh Willingham. That doesn't sound playoff-caliber to me.
#14 Toronto Blue Jays (13-15)
17 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 83-79
Last Week: 17
Jose Bautista has made an absolute liar of me. He has the highest WAR of any player in the league, 9 home runs and a .350/.530/.762 line. My big drop-off candidate looks legit. For the sake of all Blue Jays fans, I still won't believe in him. The moment I buy into Jose Bautista, he'll suck. Therefore, I'll say it's just a matter of time until he drops off and drags the rest of the team down with him.
(You're welcome Toronto).
#13 Kansas City Royals (14-13)
18 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 85-77
Last Week: 12
They still don't have dynamic pitching and are relying on Jeff Francouer to carry their offense, but the Royals are still hanging out high in these rankings. Sure, it helps to play the Twins nowadays (three wins, combined score of 25-8), but you play with the cards you're dealt. The Royals got to play a struggling Twins team and took advantage. Thanks to that (and their fifth highest scoring offense) Kansas City is in 13th.
#12 Milwaukee Brewers (13-14)
19 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 86-76
Last Week: 10
Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder remain elite hitters, Shaun Marcum and Randy Wolf continue holding down the rotation until Zack Greinke returns this week. Not much else has been going on in Milwaukee baseball-wise this past week. They drop two spots, but are still 12th and get Greinke back. Things will get much more interesting for the Brewers starting now.
#11 Cincinnati Reds (14-14)
20 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 90-72
Last Week: 8
Joey Votto is off to another MVP caliber season. If only the Reds had a pitcher pitching at a Cy Young level. Or even at a decent level. The relief pitching's been good, but starters like Edinson Volquez and Travis Wood have struggled. The Reds are doing well to this point, but they need the starting pitching to round into form to contend from here on out.
#10 Tampa Bay Rays (15-13)
21 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 91-71
Last Week: 18
The other big winner this week in these rankings is the Tampa Bay Rays. After their slow start, I thought they were done. Once again, I've been proved wrong. Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford are dragging down their new teams; Sam Fuld and Johnny Damon have brought up the Rays. Maybe Joe Madden and that front office are smarter than all of us out here.
#9 Texas Rangers (16-12)
22 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 93-69
Last Week: 3
The Rangers are starting to feel the effect of losing Josh Hamilton and Neftali Feliz. They've been struggling this week and have fallen six spots to number nine. I'm nowhere near concerned with the Rangers, but they need to get healthy soon. Adrian Beltre and Alexi Ogando can only carry the Rangers so far.
#8 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (16-12)
23 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 93-69
Last Week: 13
The Rangers fell six spots and the Angels rose five. The meet in the middle here in spots eight and nine. Vernon Wells is still dragging them down, but Jered Weaver and Dan Haren are more than making up for it. With pitching like that, the Angels can afford to wait on Wells to turn it around. (And when he doesn't, it buys them time to find a replacement).
#7 Colorado Rockies (17-9)
24 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 93-69
Last Week: 6
Troy Tulowitzki has cooled off, Carlos Gonzalez is going through a big time sophomore slump and Ubaldo Jimenez currently sports a 7.20 ERA. Yet somehow, the Rockies only fell one spot to number seven. They'll need Cargo and Ubaldo to turn things around to keep up their early season success, but for now, the Rockies are sitting pretty.
#6 Florida Marlins (17-9)
25 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 94-68
Last Week: 7
The Marlins have been playing great baseball without any real contributions from Hanley Ramirez. That's what you can get away with when Josh Johnson is on your team. For all of the hype other pitchers get, Johnson is one of the greats of the game today. As long as they've got him, the Marlins will be in good shape.
#5 Atlanta Braves (14-15)
26 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 95-67
Last Week: 11
The Braves went 3-3 this week and moved up six spots in these rankings. The Braves are just doing a good job of scoring runs and not giving them up. They have 116 runs scored to 96 runs against. The Marlins have 118 runs scored to 98 runs allowed. Does it make sense that Florida are 4.5 games ahead of Atlanta? Like I said last week, the wins will come for the Braves soon enough; they've been unlucky so far this year.
#4 St. Louis Cardinals (16-12)
27 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 101-61
Last Week: 2
They're the third best offense this year (scoring 5.32 runs per game) despite limited production from Albert Pujols. The bullpen has stabilized (apparently; will someone tell me if I should have Mitchell Boggs or Fernando Salas on my fantasy team? I need saves desperately). Their starting pitching has done well despite losing Adam Wainwright before the season and the Cardinals are have fought hard this year. Good things lie ahead for the Cardinals.
#3 Philadelphia Phillies (18-9)
28 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 102-60
Last Week: 1
Fun fact: it's always sunny in Philadelphia. The Phillies will continue to win even if they've dropped out of the top spot in these rankings. Sure they don't have Chase Utley or Dominic Brown and have gotten practically no production out of Raul Ibanez, but the Phillies' offense is fine. They have scored 4.48 runs a game, which is the 11th best in the majors. I'm sick of Phillies fans complaining about their offense; it's fine and will continue to be fine as they get their players back.
#2 New York Yankees (16-9)
29 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 103-59
Last Week: 4
Ah, here is the Evil Empire. Only the New York Yankees could find a way to emulate the small market strategy of signing players like Freddie Garcia and Bartolo Colon cheap and letting them rebound. They're a great team; there's no denying that. If Garcia, Colon and Burnett keep pitching like that, the rest of the league will be in trouble. If they don't, I'm sure the Yankees will make a midseason move and fix it. That's the way baseball works.
#1 Cleveland Indians (19-8)
30 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 108-54
Last Week: 5
I can hear the calls of "Homer! Homer!" now loud and clear. Look at the facts, though: the Indians are the second best team at scoring runs (5.41 per game) and sixth in runs allowed (3.67 per game). The truth is, they are the best team in baseball right now. Grady Sizemore's return has sparked a team that already started hot. I have no idea if they can keep it up, but I don't care. As of May 2, 2011, the Cleveland Indians are the best team in baseball.
.png?w=480)
