MLB Flamethrowers: Is Velocity Overrated?

Are the days of Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine behind us? 

In their heyday, it was rare that you read 90 mph on the radar gun. Today, you read about guys like Aroldis Chapman throwing 106 mph, and I read on twitter that Josh Johnson’s final pitch on Saturday was clocked at the century mark.

Are the dominant hurlers really going to be the ones that rely on pure heat when the game is on the line? When the postseason arrives, good pitching will always dominate good hitting, right? 

Which pitcher dominates Game 7? 

Are you choosing a Josh Johnson, Justin Verlander or possibly Roy Halladay  and Tim Hudson, who rely on dissecting the strike zone, instead of striking everyone out?

When it comes to scouting talent, what are scouts looking for? They are looking for arm strength, not speed.   

A prospect throwing in the high 90s is great—don’t get me wrong—but what are the odds that this same heat will hold up 5-10 years later? 

Minor league hitters are geared toward seeing 88-93 in their journey’s through the minor league system.  Anyone below that setting will obviously stand out.   

That’s where those who have mastered the art of pitching will rise to the top.

Those who know the game, know how to change the eye-level of the batter, change speeds and work the plate, can dominate without dominate stuff. 

Andy Pettitte rarely ever broke the elusive 90 and Cliff Lee has been compared to a left-handed Maddux. Brett Anderson of the Oakland Athletics has reduced his fastball by nearly two mph compared to last year’s numbers, and the results are better than anyone could hope for. 

My dad told me something really interesting when I was younger, and I took it with me through college and the pros:

“Everyone can hit a fastball.” 

With that being said, is it a mystery that Lincecum is throwing more changeups and sliders than ever before?  Is it out of the question to believe Matt Cain is throwing nearly 10 percent more off-speed pitches than last year?

Look at this from the eye of the batter. What should Jose Bautista be expecting after taking the baseball world by storm? 

He was challenged with a steady diet of fastballs in 2010 (nearly 50 percent). Sliders were next in line at 19.3 percent. How many of those were sharp breaking sliders? I can’t be exact, however, that a poorly thrown slider looks very much like a fastball, hence the change in pitch selection from this year's hurlers.

A changeup, in most cases, is not thrown for strikes, it’s thrown as an out pitch, or something to throw off the hitters timing.  Bautista is now realizing that when you hit 54 home runs, you will still see a fastball, but not many for strikes and with a lot more junk.

The rest of the league has taken notice, as evidenced by what Bautista is seeing, or not seeing in the zone. Thirty-four percent of what the Jays slugger sees in an at bat is for strikes. Combine that with nearly a three percent hike in changeups and last year's home run king is going to have to work for it this year. 

Percentages provided by FanGraphs 

Devon is the founder of The GM’s Perspective

 Devon is a former professional baseball player with the River City Rascals & Gateway Grizzlies, and is now an independent scout.

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