NFL Draft 2011: The 10 Biggest Surprises in an Unpredictable First Round
Since the conclusion of the Super Bowl, fans have seen the media focus on two main issues. Whether it's been reading blogs, listening to the radio or watching stations like ESPN, analysts have covered the NFL Lockout with such detail that people like Christ Mortensen sounds lie a reporter for the former Court TV.
While that's all well and good, the other football related news has been on one of the most popular events of the year, the NFL Draft.
For months, we've seen the likes of Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay give us constant updates on who was going to get drafted and on what team.
These men confidently predicted where guys like Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert and Patrick Peterson would get drafted. Well, after what we have seen after this first round, these supposed expert analysts should be glad the don't work in the general workforce, as their accuracy in another job would wind them up on the unemployment line.
The first round is over, but not before we saw people scratching their heads at many of the moves that were made (remember when people said Jake Locker would be a 3rd round pick?)
Yes my friends, this first round produced results that strongly contradicted what we have been hearing for well over three months. There are those that will say it's due to the confusion from the NFL Lockout, particularly this week.
Never has there been a time in the history of the league when teams and players literally had no clue when the season would officially begin. Was this the real cause that saw such a discrepancy in the draft to what was predicted? We would love to hear your thoughts.
In any case, let's take a look at the ten most surprising moves in the first round of the draft.
Robert Quinn Is Selected 14th Overall
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While not as big of a fall as other players, Robert Quinn's fall out of the top ten was completely unexpected. Almost every analyst saw him as a top ten pick, yet there were other defensive ends taken above him.
Perhaps it was due to character issues, as Quinn was suspended for the 2010 season at North Carolina. Maybe it was on field performance since he well, didn't have a performance due to his suspension. Whatever the case, many people consider the selection of Quinn by the Rams a steal.
The Two NFC Championship Game Rivals Rejoice
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Picking 29th and 32nd respectively, the Bears and Packers really did not know who would be available for them. For the Packers, it wasn't as important as they could select the best person available. That's what happens when you have numerous superstars such as JerMichael Finely and Ryan Grant returning to a roster that won a Super Bowl.
For the Bears though, considering they only lost 21-14 in the NFC Championship, they have many holes on both interior lines. That's why they jumped for joy when Wisconsin's Gabe Carimi, unexpectedly fell into their laps.
With the Seattle Seahawks reaching by taking guard James Carpenter with the 25th pick, and the Chiefs taking an equal reach on wide receiver Jonathan Baldwin, the Bears were able to jump on a guy they had no expectation would be available.
The snowball effect of other teams not selecting lineman benefited the Packers who drafted offensive tackle Derek Sherrod, a player many felt the Bears would end up taking.
While many fans get excited for quarterback duels, there is no doubt that the Bears and Pacers will keep an eye on which tackle emerges as the better one moving forward. For now, both teams can walk away quite happy at their good fortune.
**A slight edit to this portion of the story as of 1:00 PM. NFL Radio analyst Jim Miller believes the Bears tried to trade up in the draft to select Jonathan Baldwin, who wound up with the Chiefs. While Miller is often a reputable source, he's the only one thus far who believes the Bears did not initially target Carimi. He also happens to believe the Bears needed no help at offensive tackle, which is quite frankly laughable.
Patrick Peterson Is Going to the NFC West, but Not to San Francisco
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Since the very first mock drafts came out after the Super Bowl, Patrick Peterson was slated to be taken by the 49'ers by virtually every expert analyst. Despite Peterson routinely touted as the best overall prospect, teams at the top of the draft had bigger needs at quarterback and defense.
One of those teams was the Cardinals, who do not have a quality starting quarterback. That's why most people had the Cardinals taking either Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert.
However to the big surprise of many, the Cardinals decided to not go with their new franchise quarterback and instead drafted the best player on the board in Peterson.
The selection of Peterson will provide an immediate boost to the Cardinal defense, who took a big hit losing many of its best players.
However, the Cardinals risk losing Larry Fitzgerald if they cannot prove to him they are making an attempt at landing a franchise quarterback. Time is ticking as their All-Pro receiver is a free agent after the 2011 season.
Perhaps they'll go after someone like Andy Dalton, or maybe they'll wait to trade for someone like Kevin Kolb. Whatever the case, the cards need to do something and fast, or they can kiss Fitzgerald goodbye.
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Only One Running Back Selected in the First Round
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The fact that Mark Ingram was selected 28th overall was not a shock, though it was a slight surprise the Saints moved up to take him.
But it's quite amazing to see just how quickly the running back position has lost its position of necessity amongst NFL franchises.
People can easily argue that this was a weak running back class. However, in recent years more and more unheralded running backs have been making an impact in the league. In addition, the franchise back is a dying breed in the NFL, with only a handful of players being known was "the guy" in the backfield. I'm looking at you Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson.
Teams now use two if not three running backs in their system these days. Combine all of this with the fact that running backs have a much shorter shelf life than any other position in the league, and you now see only one running back being selected in the first round.
This is certainly a far cry than from only several years ago, when running backs would frequently be selected in the top ten.
Quarterback Starved Teams Remain Hungry For Their Man
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The way the draft played itself out, teams that are in need of a new franchise quarterback seemed like they were going to get a shot at their man.
When the Arizona Cardinals passed up on their chance at Blaine Gabbert, it appeared the San Francisco 49'ers would be able to snag up the Missouri quarterback. After all, they were the team most expected to take Peterson. However, they went another route as well.
The 49'ers were not the only team to pass up opportunities. The Redskins, Dolphins and Seahawks all decided to forgo taking a new franchise quarterback in the first round.
Considering so many analysts consider the NFL as a quarterback driven league these days, it had to be a surprise to see so many teams pass up a shot at an Andy Dalton or Ryan Mallet, instead going after defensive ends of offensive lineman.
The Fall of D'Quan Bowers
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When the original mock drafts came out by NFL analysts, Da'Quan Bowers was routinely seen in the top ten. Some even had him as the top overall pick. With great physical tools, Bowers had the look of a potentially great defensive end.
But in the month leading up to the draft, reports came in that a lot of teams were afraid of his injury concerns, more specifically a knee in which he had surgery for a torn meniscus.
Combine this with a less than adequate pro day, and Bowers went from a potential top pick, to now having to see if he'd be the top pick...of the second round.
The sinking of Bowers is one of the sharpest turns we've seen in some years. The fact is, Bowers could be an absolute steal for the team that drafts him. However, the apprehension that Bowers might be one injury away from his career being over scared every team off.
The question is, which team will end up taking the chance on potential greatness?
The Redskins Don't Select Their Franchise Quarterback
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When the Titans unexpectedly selected Jack Locker with the 8th pick of the draft, most people thought it was a gift for the Redskins, who many felt they would be looking for their next franchise quarterback. Blaine Gabbert, who was rated by some as a better talent than even Cam Newton, remained available at the time of the tenth selection.
Well Gabbert was indeed selected tenth, but not by the Redskins. Instead, Washington traded down with the Jacksonville Jaguars. The move allows the possibility of Locker and Gabbert becoming the next big QB rivalry.
For Washington though, who now owned the 16th pick, there was now the possibility they would target someone like TCU's Andy Dalton. Instead, the Redskins went another route drafting defensive end Ryan Kerrigan.
Their choice to not take a quarterback was surprising to say the least. There are still some options out there, including Dalton who was not taken in the first round, or the man with the cannon like arm Ryan Mallet.
Expect the Redksins to try and get their man in the 2nd or 3rd round.
Jake Locker Gets Drafted Before Blaine Gabbert
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What a roller coaster ride it has been for Jake Locker.
A little more than a year ago, most people eagerly anticipated Locker to declare himself eligible for the NFL draft, as everyone considered him a lock as the number one pick. However he did something that some people considered noble while others thought insane when he decided to come back for his senior year.
The decision appeared to be costly for Locker as he struggled for much of the 2010 season, especially in a early game against Nebraska in which he completed less than 30% of his passes, easily a career worse.
By season's end, Locker saw his stock drop so low, that some considered him no better than a 3rd or 4th round selection.
However, in a draft where many teams are starving for a new quarterback, combined with a solid combine, Locker slowly saw his stock begin to rise again. Still, most considered him no better than a late first round pick.
That is, unless you happened to be in the Tennessee Titans organization.
Despite the fact that Blaine Gabbert, a quarterback most saw as superior to Locker was still on the board, the Titans used their 8th pick on Locker.
One has to believe that the Titans felt another team would have taken Locker early in the draft. If not, their decision to not trade down to take Locker is inexplicable, as virtually no one saw him as a top ten draft pick.
Time will tell if their decision will be seen as costly, or one that propels the Titans organization back into contention.
The Replacement for Brett Favre Is...Christian Ponder?
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It was a big enough surprise to see the Titans select a quarterback in Jake Locker that some felt wasn't even worthy of being a first round pick. You could make an excuse though for Tennessee when you saw what the Vikings did just a few picks later.
Apparently the Titans felt the need to jump on Locker because the Vikings would have snagged him with their selection. With no Locker on the board though, surely the Vikings would look elsewhere, since no other quarterback prospect was slated to be picked in the first round.
Did this stop Minnesota? Nope. The Vikings selection of Christian Ponder, a quarterback many felt was the fifth, sixth or on some charts, the 7th rated quarterback in this class, was a true head scratcher.
Let's get one thing straight. The Vikings desperately needed a new franchise quarterback. With the retirement (we believe) of Brett Favre, the failures of Tavaris Jackson, and the raw ability of Joe Webb, the Vikings needed some new blood.
But Christian Ponder? With the 12th pick?
With several quarterbacks left on the market, it became very clear as the first round moved on that the Vikings could have traded down to select Ponder later in the draft. Instead, the Vikings now will have to rely on a quarterback that most feel had no business being a first round pick.
In a division with Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford and Super Bowl champion Aaron Rodgers, one can't envy the expectations Ponder will have.
Atlanta Falcons Trade Five Draft Picks to Browns to Draft Julio Jones
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Several months ago, Julio Jones was considered a mid level 1st round draft pick. With some very successful combines, Jones moved steadily up the charts to the point that most considered him a near lock to be drafted by the Cleveland Browns with the sixth pick in the draft.
Well, people got half that equation correct, but Cleveland is not where Jones will be calling home for the next several years.
That's because the Atlanta Falcons traded their 2011 and 2012 1st and 4th round picks, as well as a 2011 2nd round pick to the Browns for the right to draft Jones.
It was an incredibly bold move that showed everyone else in the league that the Falcons are trying to win now. Jones will be paired with NFL All-Pro Roddy White to provide one of the more potent receiving tandems.
But is trading away many of their best picks for the next two years worth trading for a receiver?
Given the spotty history of how receivers picked early in the draft have fared, it's an incredible risk taken by the Falcons. For every Calvin Johnson, you have a Charles Rodgers.
Whatever the case, it's safe to say no analyst saw this one coming.
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