NFL Draft 2011: Top 50 Players Who Have Had Their Stocks Fall Furthest
There are several different ways to look at players with falling values. When looking at Jake Locker, it could be his expected draft position this year vs. what it might have been had he entered the draft in 2010.
Ryan Mallett could be looked at in those terms, or where he was projected prior to his combine interview vs. after. Then there is Da'Quan Bowers and his rapid decline from a few months ago to now.
All of these variances have merit, and the following pages will incorporate them all. There will be players that are currently rising included, based on where they were projected at some point over the last 12 months.
As for the rankings—they will encompass a combination of the number of spots, the associated financial value of those picks and the value of those picks on the draft pick value chart. Thus, dropping 15 spots in Round 1 will be much worse than an expected fall from Round 4 to Round 6.
25 Players with a Modest Drop in Draft Value
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50. Ronald Johnson, WR, USC
Johnson has been pegged from the fifth to the seventh round, but has been getting more attention later than earlier. He could be a steal in the seventh round.
49. DeMarcus Love, OT/G, Arkansas
While still a solid prospect, Love was getting attention as a potential third-round selection.
48. Stanley Havili, FB, USC
Havili's size makes him a difficult choice to be a bruising lead-blocker in the NFL. He'll most likely get attention as a special teams player.
47. Brian Rolle, OLB, Ohio State
Rolle's weigh-in at the combine reassured that he just isn't big enough to play LB in the NFL. His drills revealed he won't likely make the transition to safety, either.
46. Shane Vereen, RB, California
Almost every RB in the draft could make this list, with Taiwan Jones being an exception after a stunning pro day. Vareen has fallen from a second or third-round pick to the fourth round, as many RBs have edged down the draft board.
45. DeAndre McDaniel, SS, Clemson
A lack of speed at the combine exposed that McDaniel didn't drop into coverage at Clemson. This will hurt his stock in the NFL.
44. Owen Marecic, FB, Stanford
Once being considered for a late-third or early fourth-round selection, Marecic is looking at Round 5. FBs have become less important in the eyes of some teams.
43. Jalil Brown, CB, Colorado
Brown was being considered as an option high in the draft, but scouts finally realized that Colorado gave up a lot of yards, and very few of them were on Jimmy Smith's side of the field. Brown had his work cut out for him and could still be a great value for a team in Round 4.
42. Casey Matthews, ILB, Oregon
Matthews has shown on the field and in timed drills that he isn't his brother. It will be hard for teams to take him before the fourth round following his combine effort.
41. Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
There are concerns on how he'll transition to the pro game as a DE/OLB tweener. Some boards still have him in the top 15, while he is in the back of the draft on other mocks.
40. Greg McElroy, QB Alabama
Concerns with McElroy's arm strength will move him down from the fourth-round projections.
39. Stefen Wisniewski, C, Penn State
Once seen as a possible first-round pick, Wisniewski has fallen as teams realize he really needs to play center in the NFL.
38. Jurrell Casey, DT, USC
Please re-read note on Drake Nevis.
37. James Brewer, OT, Indiana
Brewer had the potential to be taken in the second round, but is now slipping to third-round discussion following a poor pro day.
36. Christian Ballard, DE, Iowa
A failed drug test at the combine takes Ballard even further out of consideration. He was gaining some momentum as a big reason for Clayborn's success.
35. Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia
Even though Dowling is rising up many draft boards, and many see him as a late first-round pick, he very well could have been the third-ranked CB in this draft if not for lingering leg issues last season.
34. Pat Devlin, QB, Delaware
Once getting consideration for a fourth or fifth-round pick, Devlin might have worked his way out of the draft. When you come from a small school and have something to prove, don't show up late to your pro day out of sync with your receivers. Just a thought...
33. Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State
Ponder could go late in the first round if a team trades up to get him. This is an improvement from the second-round projections, but a year ago—before the shoulder injury—he was a top 15 projection.
32. Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois
As Ingram's status drops, so do the rest of the RBs in the class, and teams will be reluctant to draft a RB before the perceived best option is off the board.
31. Rahim Moore, FS, UCLA
Even though Moore is a top-rated safety, he has fallen into the second round. A poor 40-time at the combine and questions on where he fits in an NFL defense have pushed him down the board.
30. Ahmad Black, SS, Florida
Teams are concerned he's just too small to be successful and offer run support in the NFL.
29. Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
Austin is gaining traction to be a first-round selection, but had he not missed his 2010 season, he likely would have been a middle-of-the-first round pick.
28. Greg Romeus, DE, Pittsburgh
Romeus missed almost all of his senior year at Pitt following surgery. He was a potential second-round pick, but now could be a great steal in Round 5.
27. Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
Jim…yo-yo-my Smith has been up and down draft boards all winter. I liked him at 25 back in January when he was a second-round prediction. Character concerns have dropped him back there after a rise near the top dozen in the draft.
26. Orlando Franklin, OL, Miami FL
Concerns about Franklin's knee have dropped him from the second round to the fourth.
10 Players with a Measurable Drop in Expected Draft Status
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25. Torrey Smith, WR/KR, Maryland
Once a consideration in the first round, Smith has dropped on boards like passes from his hands.
24. Drake Nevis, DT, LSU
Nevis has been mentioned in the first round, but now could still be on the board at the start of the fourth round. Size and a perceived inability to convert to a 3-4 are hurting several DTs in this draft class.
23. Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor
Taylor has been slipping down draft boards due to bones in his feet that are starting to fuse together. Some team doctors don't see it as an issue, so stay tuned…he could go in the first round or still be there in the third.
22. Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech
Williams left college early to keep from hurting his draft stock even more while working in a strong rotation.
21. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
Ongoing injuries have left the top TE in this draft (by default) a sketchy option. Look for him to be called on Friday after being a possible top-15 option prior to the start of the 2010 season.
20. Martez Wilson, OLB, Illinois
Wilson was seen as a first-round option prior to a poor pro day; he is now looking at mid-second round grades.
19. Benjamin Ijalana, OT, Villanova
Ijalana was getting first-round consideration, but concerns over the talent level he faced in college could see him drop to the third round. There is a big jump from a major college to the NFL; it is even greater from the FCS to professional ball.
18. Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
Heyward showed inconsistency all season, working himself out of a top-15 draft position.
17. Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
A knee injury and a perceived inability to work a 3-4 defense have dropped Paea back out of first-round consideration.
16. Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Once in consideration for the top pick, Peterson could now fall all the way to No. 7. While it might not seem like that big of a deal, teams taking need over Peterson's production could cost him up to $10 million in his initial contract.
5 Players That Have Had a Significant Drop in Expected Draft Status
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15. Tyron Smith, OT, USC
This pick is difficult, as I've thought Smith was the top OT in this draft since February. However, a medical checkup on his knee showed meniscus damage that could push him well back in the first round. Combined with concerns that he won't be able to maintain his new weight, he's a risky proposition for a team needing a LT.
14. Brandon Harris, CB, Miami
Harris measured in at just over 5'9" at the combine, hurting his draft stock. As other CBs have been getting more attention, Harris could be the sixth or seventh CB taken in the draft.
13. Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
An inconsistent season killed the momentum Clayborn built in '09, and his diminished performance surprised a lot of scouts. Add in the announcement that he has Erb's Palsy, and teams will be concerned that there is a connection.
12. Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Yes, Amukamara will be drafted in the top 15 picks, but prior to Peterson falling down several spots, Amukamara didn't figure to get past the 49ers.
11. Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
Once looked at as a top-15 guy, Ayers could fall out of the first round. While being solid at most aspects, he doesn't seem to excel anywhere.
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Major Sliders: First Half of the Top 10
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10. Jake Locker, QB, Washington
While I don't think Jake will fall nearly as far as some have projected him, his stock has definitely slipped from a projected top-five pick in the 2010 draft.
9. Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Another player that was looked at as a possible top choice, analysts have started to realize that Gabbert doesn't throw the ball down the field. He could have a major tumble on Thursday and could even end up being the third QB selected.
8. Mark Herzlich, ILB, Boston College
At this point, Herzlich is known more for his courageous battle with cancer than for his play on the field. He was being considered a second or third-round talent, but health concerns could lead him to the back of the draft. Herzlich is the kind of person you just have to root for; he could make a positive impact in the locker room and on the field for a lot of NFL teams.
7. Marcus Cannon, OT, TCU
The opposite of Herzlich, Cannon was recently diagnosed with lymphoma, that could render him undraftable from a second-round pick.
6. Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
At one point Fairly was the top pick in the draft. He's now falling to the end of the top 10 on a lot of draft boards. I still see him going in the top five, but regardless…he's lost some money over concerns on his work ethic.
5. Justin Houston, DE, Georgia
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In case you haven't heard yet, word is just out that Houston failed a drug test at the combine. This kind of news can drop a first-round talent to Round 3 or 4. This could be quite costly, depending on the substance.
4. Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
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Solder is a project that could be good…someday. He's athletic but not a solid blocker, and I don't see an NFL team using a first-round pick on him. I've left him off each of my first-round mock drafts going back to February.
Originally considered by some to be a top-12 pick, his value has fallen considerably. It will be interesting to see if he manages to get back above Smith now that there are concerns with the health of his knee.
3. Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
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Mallett was being linked to the Seattle Seahawks had he come out in the 2010 draft...at both of their first-round picks (six and 14). He is now potentially a second-round pick, although I expect him to be gone in the first round. It is hard to say where he would have been drafted last year, as there are rumblings that certain issues would have doomed his draft status last March and April.
Still, Mallet has first-round talent and could be the top QB in this draft if he can mature. Mallett's stock has been rising again as of late, and he still may find himself going in the middle-to-late first round.
2. Mark Ingram, RB Alabama
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The former Heisman winner was a consensus pick to go to the Dolphins with the 15th pick in the draft. Knee issues have hobbled his draft status and he is now falling out of the first round on many draft boards.
RBs already have short NFL careers. Teams will be slow to draft one that enters with longevity concerns.
1. Da'Quan Bowers, DE Clemson
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Just a few weeks ago Bowers was ruling the top of draft boards as a can't-miss DE. He was the top player on the Scouts, Inc. draft board after announcing he would skip his senior season to enter the NFL.
Then concerns came up about his knee, as some physicians looked at the surgery as a form of a microfracture procedure. Bowers and his surgeon claim he will be 100 percent, but those assurances haven't kept him from slipping to the Minnesota Vikings, and then by the end of last week, he was expected to fall to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Bowers has dropped a few more spots this week and could be struggling to be drafted day one. Gone are the days of being a top-five pick; he might not even be in the top five DEs once Thursday is done.
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