Green Bay Packers: Draft Discipline Could Lead to Next NFL Dynasty

Ted Thompson knows the first rule of being general manager: Every choice is culpable.  Even when you make the right decision for your team, you will be villainized for it.

The second rule of being general manager trumps the first, and is only slightly less ridiculous: When you win the Super Bowl, all your mistakes vanish and you immediately become an elite drafter of NFL prospects.

The Packers' Ted Thompson is just the most recent example of the two rules. First known as the guy that came after Ron Wolf, Thompson was blamed for hurting Brett Favre's feelings and forcing him out of Green Bay. Draft busts Brian Brohm and Justin Harrell proved Thompson was inadequate. It was easy for anyone with a blog to claim that he was the worst GM in NFL history.

Oh, how quickly things change.

The moment Ted Thompson laid hands on the Lombardi Trophy, his approach suddenly turned to gold. The Aaron Rodgers grab was not only brave, but brilliant. The reliance on the draft and shunning free agents is a recipe that can never fail. He traded up for Matthews, so we can forgive him for rarely making such an exciting move. It is all so obvious now, even if we didn't spend thousands of hours evaluating talent like he does each year.

Thompson has it all figured out, so why isn't everyone doing it?

After seeing such bipolar analysis and short attention spans, don't get offended when Ted Thompson is quoted as saying "Analysts are idiots" because it is probably more fact-based than opinion. 

The media makes money by creating compelling stories — not for being right. 

Being right means you would have to actually do the exhaustive work of a GM. NFL Analysts don't get paid for being right, but they can cause headaches for GM's that do. Thompson was perhaps the most hated man in Wisconsin after trading Favre to the Jets even though he made the best decision for the team.

The reality of the 2011 Packers is that they are a mostly intact, young, 2010 champion, with a deep stable of experienced backups. It makes for a boring draft story, but they already have more good players than they can keep, and they don't need to add many bodies through the draft.

Look for the Packers to deal or combine most of their nine 2011 draft picks. They just don't need them all now. 

The Packers had some instability in key positions in 2010, notably running back and tight end, and they scraped the bottom of the barrel for defensive linemen and linebackers.

Green Bay learned two key lessons from their ravaged roster.  First, their talent evaluation is effective, since they identified players on the street in midseason that made plays for them down the stretch. Second, their coaching is effective, with their traditionally weak special teams playing tough despite many of the core special teams players being reassigned to starting roles.

With names such as Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant returning, rookies have little chance of finding a place to fit in, and even if they could, the unresolved CBA could mean those rookies won't be learning the plays or the culture in time to make the team.

Ted Thompson has done his job and set his draft board, but there won't be many players available that can compete for positions on one of the deepest Packers team in history. So he will do what any GM would do in his position: Trade this year's picks for more valuable picks next year, and maybe trade up to get a player that can actually make the team.

Luckily, since he's just won the Super Bowl, his decisions will be popular and justifiable in the eyes of the analysts no matter what he does — as long as it makes a good story.

Not that he cares. Accumulating draft picks puts him one step closer to a Packer dynasty.