Duke Basketball: Predicting Their Final Roster and More for 2011-12
The Duke Blue Devils are usually a team who has about seven or eight players who make an impact in the game. For the 2011-12 season, however, they have no less than a dozen players vying for playing time.
The Devils are much, much deeper than usual this season, and because they have so much depth, and so many options, predicting their final roster is a tricky task.
Because Duke has so many talented players, preseason practices will probably decide who gets to start, and who’s sitting the bench.
Until preseason practices are over, and the actual games start, the roster is only speculation, but that’s not stopping us from making our preseason predictions.
Over the next 13 slides, I will be discussing Duke’s probable roster player-by-player, including bench players and their roles.
Without further ado, let’s dive into the mystery of Duke’s roster.
Duke’s Strategy
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The Duke roster contains 12 impact players, most of whom are shooters. Duke is a small team once again and they will need to take advantage of their speed and shooting ability if they want to continue their success.
Because of their lack of size inside, the Devils will be playing a 3-2 offense most of the time, in which they have three guards, and two forwards.
When Coach K decides he would rather have some height down-low to take advantage of smaller schools, they will switch back to the 2-3 (two guards, three forwards).
While many Duke fans (myself included) want to see the three Plumlee brothers playing at once, it will probably be a rare occurrence. Coach K did not play Miles and Mason together too often in the 2010-11 season, and I highly doubt he will play all three together.
With that, it’s time to tell you who will be playing where, and who will be starting versus riding the bench.
Point Guard: Tyler Thornton
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Thornton is a young guard who shared time with Nolan Smith last season after Kyrie Irving went down. Coach K knew that Smith and Irving would be gone for the 2011-12 season, so he made sure that he could incorporate Thornton, and the time he got during the season will be very beneficial.
Thornton is a pure-point guard, in the fact that he prefers to create for others, as opposed to scoring himself. Thornton averaged almost as many assists as he did points, and he always found the shooter with the best chance when he played.
Thornton will be a sophomore this year, and he will be needed to step up into the starting role. Thornton will be seeing a lot more action this season compared to his meager 9.9 minutes per game last season.
A lot of Duke fans would have Quinn Cook start over Thornton, but Coach K will want to keep developing Cook before throwing him into a starting role. The valuable minutes Cook spends on the bench will be minutes during which coaches can show him exactly what to do, and what not to do when he gets his shot.
Shooting Guard: Austin Rivers
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The son of NBA coach Doc Rivers, Austin will be starting for the Blue Devils for sure. Rivers is currently ranked as the number two recruit for the 2011-12 class, just behind Kentucky’s Anthony Davis.
Rivers is coming out of Winter Park High School in Winter Park, Florida, and he is the number one shooting guard in the class.
Rivers has everything you want in a player: athleticism, quickness, the ability to shoot, etc. Rivers’ only weakness appears to be his tendency to go to his right the majority of the time.
Austin Rivers will probably become an NBA Draft lottery-pick after the coming season, and Coach K will try to use him as much as possible.
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Shooting Guard: Seth Curry
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Despite Curry’s poor performance in the NCAA tournament, he will still be starting.
Seth Curry, younger brother of Stephen Curry, played a year at Liberty College before transferring to Duke. Curry’s first year with Duke was last season, and he proved valuable down the stretch.
Curry averaged nine points per game, but he scored double digits in 16 games, including the final five regular season games. Curry shot an impressive 43.5 percent from three, and he averaged about two assists and two rebounds per game.
Curry will probably be the second most important shooter on the floor behind Rivers, and he will most likely share time with Andre Dawkins.
Forward: Ryan Kelly
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Ryan Kelly seems to have captured Coach K’s attention, and he started a few of the final games.
I personally would rather play someone else, but Kelly started last season, and no one who is coming in seems to be able to take his spot.
Kelly is a tall guy at 6’11” and he also has surprising ability to shoot from three, shooting over 30 percent. Kelly is not a big guy at only 235 lbs., but he is a good rebounder, and he has a great chance to start.
Kelly will most likely be sharing time with Miles Plumlee, who is broader and is a good rebounder too, even if he is not quite as tall.
Forward: Mason Plumlee
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Mason Plumlee is the middle brother of the Plumlee Trio. Mason is considering declaring for the NBA Draft, but I HIGHLY doubt that he will, and I doubt that any NBA team would even take him at this point…he was not even a starter for most of the season.
Mason is the most athletic of the three Plumlees, even if he is not the best rebounder. He is also the best offensive weapon.
Mason got more playing time than Miles by 8.6 minutes per game, and he also started more often than his older brother. Marshall Plumlee, on the other hand, is not going to the NBA soon and while he is tall, he is not big enough to hold his own in the paint.
Coach K is going to pick one of the Plumlees for this spot, and Mason is his best bet.
Bench: Andre Dawkins
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As said previously, Dawkins will be sharing time as a shooting guard with Seth Curry. Dawkins is very similar to Curry, and he should get almost half of the minutes, while Curry will get just over half.
Dawkins scored over eight points per game in about 20 minutes, and he shot about 43 percent from three. Dawkins is a good shooter, but he has become more athletic during his time at Duke. He has stepped up his game on defense, and he attacks the paint more, but he is a slight step down from Seth Curry, which is why he will be riding the bench at the start of games.
Bench: Michael Gbinije
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Gbinije is a 6’6” small forward, but he will probably be playing guard in the 3-2 offense.
Gbinije is a very special player in the fact that he is so fundamentally sound at such a young age. Gbinije lets the game come to him, and that is one of his greatest strengths, but it is also one of his greatest weaknesses.
Gbinije has very few weaknesses, but one of them is that he can become complacent at times. Sometimes he will lose his aggressiveness on the court, and it is at those times that he becomes a mediocre player. Lucky for Gbinije, he went to Duke, because Coach K will be able to break that habit.
Gbinije will develop into a good player this season, but for now he is going to have to sit the bench until Coach K raises his level of play a bit. He will probably play about 15-25 minutes per game.
Bench: Marshall Plumlee
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Marshall is rumored to be the best Plumlee yet, but he is not at the moment.
Marshall is a tall, 6’11” center who is considered skinny for his height at 215 lbs. He has good mobility, however, and he can grab rebounds up to 15 feet out. Marshall can hit shots from 12-15 feet out, and he can knock down jump-hooks if he cannot drive through the lane.
Unfortunately, Marshall is very inconsistent, and while he is a force on both ends of the floor, he can go extended periods without making a play on either end. Marshall is also an area-rebounder, in terms that he does not always show the aggressiveness in order to get the extra rebounds.
Finally, Marshall needs to bulk up and improve his strength. While blocking out can go a long way, he needs to bulk up if he is going to play inside with the other big men of the league, especially those of North Carolina.
I see Marshall playing about 15-20 minutes per game.
Bench: Miles Plumlee
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Miles Plumlee is the eldest brother of the trio, and he will be sitting the bench in his senior year.
Miles is 6’10” and 245 lbs., making him the largest Plumlee.
So far, Miles seems like the best rebounder of the three, and he will probably be brought in whenever the team is getting out-rebounded badly.
In his 17 minutes per game, Miles averaged more rebounds (4.9) than points (4.8). Miles may not be the best offensive player of the three—and he is arguably the worst, but he will be brought in when defense and size are needed.
Miles will probably play about 20 minutes per game in his senior year, but this could easily be dropped to about 10-15 if he does not produce well.
Bench: Alex Murphy
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Alex Murphy is currently a junior at St. Mark's School in South Kingstown, Rhode Island, but he has decided to skip his senior year and play for Duke.
Murphy is a 6’8” small forward at 215 lbs. His strengths are best summed up by his player profile by ESPN:
"“Murphy is a skilled and versatile forward with the size and physical tools to play either forward position. He excels in the open floor where his economy of motion and breakaway athleticism allow him to cover the court and rise up for explosive finishes. In the quarter court he makes open shots to the arc when his feet are set and handles and passes the ball incredibly well for a player his size. He is a constant mismatch problem with a corresponding basketball I.Q. and feel for the game. He has the ability to post a smaller defender, makes good use of a spin move inside the lane to counter a secondary defender, and can actually facilitate for those around him as more of a point forward.”
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Murphy has few flaws, but his biggest one is that he needs to either bulk up to become a true power forward, or work on being quicker and become a small forward. Murphy will probably end up playing about 15-20 minutes per game because of the amount of competition on the Duke roster.
Bench: Josh Hairston
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Josh Hairston is a 6’7” forward listed at 210 lbs.
Hairston saw limited action in the 2010-11 season, and I don’t expect him to get much more in the 2011-12 season. Hairston averaged 1.4 points and 1.2 rebounds in his 6.1 minutes per game.
Hairston is one of many forwards on the Duke team this season, and he will be overshadowed by the others. He will be the biggest victim to extra competition, and he should average no more than 8.0 minutes per game.
Look for Hairston to ride the bench…but when he does come in, he will make an impact. Hairston had the chance to become a good player for Duke in his four years, but he will be riding the bench for the majority of his time at Duke.
Bench: Quinn Cook
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Cook is a 6’1” point guard out of Oak Hill Academy in Hyattsville, Maryland.
Cook has incredible speed and quickness, and he is quite the acrobat on the court. Cook has the ability to score himself because he can be an excellent shooter, although he is quite streaky. He can also create for others with his spectacular vision, and ability to penetrate and kick. Lastly, Cook’s defense is exceptional, and his ability to put pressure on ball-handlers leads to quick steals often.
While Cook’s upside sounds great, he also has a few glaring flaws. Cook needs to have a better sense of the situations he is in involving score and clock management. He also tries too hard to make up for his mistakes with big-time shots right after he commits them. Unfortunately, he also gets into the heat of the moment too much, and he becomes prone to committing turnovers and charges during these periods.
Cook definitely has the potential to become one of the best point guards in the league over time, but for now, he needs to sit out and learn from Duke’s superb coaching staff. I expect him to play about 10-15 minutes per game.
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