MLB Power Rankings: Ranking All 30 Teams to This Point in the Season
Score more runs than the other team; it's just that simple. The team that scores more than they give up will win games and vice versa. Even at this early juncture, the teams scoring more runs - regardless of their record right now - are better off.
I won't bore you with the geeky math details, but using the Pythagorean theorem one can estimate how many games a team should win or lose based off of the runs it has scored and given up. Doing this can give a better view of how a team is playing than its current win-loss record.
So, for these power rankings, I looked at how each team would finish the full 162 game season if they kept scoring runs and giving them up at the rate they are now. The results may surprise you.
Note: The results are only through Sunday's game. Monday's result will affect these rankings slightly, but not in any substantial way.
No. 30 Seattle Mariners (8-15)
1 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 55-107
Things haven't been great for the Mariners this year; you don't need me to say that. I have faith that they aren't condemned to this position in the power rankings because of those two pitchers to the left. Michael Pineda looks like something special, and paired with Felix Hernandez, the Mariners have two strong pieces (three if you count Justin Smoak). It could be fun to watch how this team matures over the year, but for now, they are in last place.
No. 29 Minnesota Twins (9-12)
2 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 60-102
When your top two pitchers have combined for 6.02 ERA and 1.395 WHIP and you're missing your top hitter, it probably means you're not off to a good start. They seem to be turning it around and playing like the team everyone expected them to be, but it's safe to say that the Twins are not off to the start they'd like.
No. 28 Pittsburgh Pirates (9-12)
3 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 63-99
The same idea holds for the Pirates as for the Mariners. The young pieces such as Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata are in place; now it's just about waiting for everything to come together. The Pirates are another team that could improve throughout the year.
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No. 27 Baltimore Orioles (8-12)
4 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 64-98
It all started off so good for the Orioles and it's all fallen apart so fast. They're still in much better shape than they've been in, but going 2-11 after a 6-1 start hurts. Zach Britton and Jeremy Guthrie are strong at the front of their rotation and Matt Weiters is finally looking like the hitter he was supposed to be, but for the Orioles to catch up to the rest of the AL East, they will need Mark Reynolds and company to start hitting again.
No. 26 Houston Astros (8-14)
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Pythagorean W-L: 64-98
Despite being everybody's favorite pick for "worst team in the league," the Astros check in here at #26. Truth be told, they aren't very good and could use upgrades at most positions, but there are some bright spots. Brett Myers is pitching very well and Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence, and J.R. Towles have been good on offense. For the Astros to make some real noise, though, they'll need players like Wandy Rodriguez, Carlos Lee and Bill Hall to turn things around.
No. 25 Chicago Cubs (10-11)
6 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 64-98
They may be 10-11 right now, but that win-loss record is masking deeper problems on the North Side. Ryan Dempster's struggling with a 7.63 ERA and a 1.630 WHIP and Carlos Pena has a .183 BA and 39 OPS+. Sure, there are some bright spots (Starlin Castro, Kosuke Fukudome), but right now, the Cubs need their big guns to turn it around.
No. 24 Arizona Diamondbacks (8-12)
7 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 68-94
The Arizona Diamondbacks don't have many big names and aren't playing at an elite level, but they're not hopeless. Justin Upton is an elite talent, Ryan Roberts has been a great surprise and Miguel Montero sure knows how to hit. Until the starting pitching starts to pick up, though, the Diamondbacks will stay near the bottom of these rankings.
No. 23 Chicago White Sox (8-14)
8 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 70-92
Oh how the mighty have fallen. I actually was at Opening Day in Cleveland when the Chicago White Sox went up 14-0 through four innings. Even then, though, the warning signs were there. The final five innings saw the White Sox outscored 10-1. Pitching was supposed to be the strength of the team, and yet only the Mariners have given up more runs than the White Sox. Alex Rios is struggling miserably and the bottom seems to be falling out. Unless they turn things around soon, it could be a long summer for Ozzie Guillen and the White Sox.
No. 22 San Diego Padres (8-14)
9 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 70-92
It can be argued that the Padres missed the playoffs - allowing the eventual champion Giants to get in - because they didn't have enough offense. This offseason the Padres traded Adrian Gonzalez, easily their best hitter, to the Red Sox and didn't replace him very well. Their offense is still anemic (only scoring 2.9 runs per game) and it's costing them. Their pitching has been strong, but they aren't scoring runs. Nick Hundley and Cameron Maybin are hitting very well, but who else is really there to pick up the slack?
No. 21 Los Angeles Dodgers (12-11)
10 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 71-91
Matt Kemp has been a revelation this year, seeing as he's the third best hitter in the Majors in WAR this year (only behind Jose Bautista and Joey Votto). The Dodgers have started winning games under Bud Selig's ownership, but they're still not in great shape. They've allowed 109 runs to this point while only scoring 95 and need to continue their hot streak before I buy into the Dodgers. They've been lucky getting wins to this point, but they're on the right track.
No. 20 New York Mets (9-13)
11 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 75-87
Ike Davis, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and David Wright are hitting out of their minds. The pitching staff may not be great, but it's at least average. So what's wrong with the Mets? Why are they only 9-13?
I'm inclined to believe it's mostly some bad luck. This team is filled good players both young and old and could make some noise down the road as they gel.
No. 19 Washington Nationals (10-10)
12 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 76-86
They're doing it without Ryan Zimmerman. They're doing it without Stephen Strasburg. Bryce Harper is still a ways away, and yet the Nationals are actually playing good baseball. This collection of castoffs and no-names has drawn me in. Add Ryan Zimmerman back in and they could approach .500 this year. For the Nationals that would be a major step in the right direction. Add Strasburg and Harper to that? Look out baseball.
No. 18 Tampa Bay Rays (11-11)
13 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 77-85
They've endured Manny being Manny. They've dealt with Evan Longoria's injury, and they've come out all the better from it. The Rays started off cold, but have heated up recently. Players like Sam Fuld and James Shields have kept the Rays around .500 and they'll only get better when Evan Longoria comes off the DL and players like B.J. Upton round into form.
No. 17 Toronto Blue Jays (9-12)
14 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 75-87
Jose Bautista's proven me wrong so far this year. I had him pegged as the disappointment of the year. For the sake of Toronto fans, the rest of the team needs to play up to his level. There are some players doing well (namely Kyle Drabek), but the rest of the Blue Jays need to step their game up a level.
No. 16 Boston Red Sox (10-11)
15 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 79-83
Remember when the Red Sox were left for dead?
There's no doubt that the Red Sox cold streak is behind them now. With Josh Beckett looking like the Josh Beckett of old and players like Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis leading the way, the Red Sox look like the contenders they were supposed to be and not the disappointments they were for the season's first weeks.
No. 15 San Francisco Giants (10-11)
16 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 80-82
San Francisco fans have got to be excited about Pablo Sandoval's resurgence and Buster Posey's excellence. Unfortunately for the defending champs, there may be real concern about Brian Wilson and Aubrey Huff.
Wilson will probably round back into form. He still has five saves despite his 9.82 ERA. The bigger question for the Giants should be Aubrey Huff. He's off to a cold start at the plate and is playing abysmally in the field. His dWAR of -1.0 is dead last in the majors this year. There's still hope in San Francisco, but they're not going to repeat the way they're playing right now.
No. 14 Detroit Tigers (12-10)
17 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 82-80
Going into Spring Training, so many questions were swirling around the Tigers, most of them based on Miguel Cabrera's DUI arrest. As can be expected, Cabrera and the Tigers have left those problems behind in Florida and are playing good ball so far this year. Between Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander on the mound and Cabrera, Alex Avila and Brennan Boesch, the Tigers are playing well enough to challenge the reign of the 2011 Indians and the Royals.
No. 13 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (12-10)
18 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 85-77
Jered Weaver and Dan Haren are elite. Vernon Wells and Scott Kazmir are not. For me, the Angels' season is that simple. Sure, players like Howie Kendrick and Maicer Izturis are playing very well, but if supposedly high-impact players like Wells and Kazmir don't up their game, the Angels are going to fall short. It takes more than two great pitchers to win; the Angels are going to need some help from the other 23 players to not waste all of their good pitching.
No. 12 Kansas City Royals (12-10)
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Pythagorean W-L: 86-76
The Royals have done nothing but surprise this year and have jumped out to an impressive 12-10 start. There may not be much substance to the pitching, but they're getting the job done. More importantly for the Royals, Alex Gordon is finally making good on his potential. With a 18 game hit streak, he could quite possibly becoming the king of the Royals.
I don't believe their pitching will hold up and have no faith in Jeff Francoeur (been burned believing in him too many times before), but for now, let's enjoy the ride. The Royals are playing good ball and near the top of the division.
No. 11 Atlanta Braves (11-12)
20 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 91-71
The win-loss record doesn't show the whole picture for the Atlanta Braves. Their players aren't off to a great start, but it's not that bad. They're scoring a good amount more runs than they allow, and yet they have a losing record. They may be low in the division standings for now, but the Braves are playing good baseball and will see the wins come in before long.
No. 10 Milwaukee Brewers (11-10)
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Pythagorean W-L: 91-71
Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder have done more than enough to hold down the fort until Zack Greinke comes back. This team has played very well considering the fact that their big offseason acquisition is yet to play a game and that the cloud of Prince Fielder's impending free agency has been hanging over them (and gotten bigger after Ryan Braun signed his new contract). The Brewers are in win now mode and making the most of it.
No. 9 Oakland Athletics (11-11)
22 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 93-69
Fun fact: the Oakland Athletics might have the best pitching staff in baseball. Sure, the Phillies have bigger names, but have you seen what the A's get every night? They are pitching out of their minds. If their hitters can rise up to even an average level, then the AL West will be the A's playground all year.
No. 8 Cincinnati Reds (11-11)
23 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 93-69
Honestly, I'm surprised how well the Reds are playing this year. Sure, Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips are playing well, but they haven't had the best pitching this year. Add in a sad start from Jay Bruce (especially in the field) and injuries to Scott Rolen, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto and the Reds are lucky to be where they are. As they get healthy, they could be even better than they are right now.
No. 7 Florida Marlins (13-7)
24 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 94-68
Josh Johnson may very well be the best pitcher in the entire league and he is leading the best opposition the NL East can offer to the Phillies' dominance. They've been playing very well even with a less than stellar start from Hanley Ramirez. They're in great position to make some noise this year, much to the chagrin of Atlanta and Philadelphia fans.
No. 6 Colorado Rockies (14-7)
25 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 96-66
Like the Reds, I think that the Rockies are lucky to be where they are. Sure, Troy Tulowitzki is on fire, but they've done this well without contributions from Ubaldo Jimenez and Carlos Gonzalez. If this is how good the Rockies can play without their best being at their best, imagine what they're capable of when all their best players start clicking.
No. 5 Cleveland Indians (13-8)
26 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 101-61
Being an Indians fan, I'm pumped about having a real reason to put the Tribe at number five in these rankings. They're playing great ball and getting big contributions from unexpected places (see Asdrubal Cabrera and Josh Tomlin). Unfortunately, unless players like Fausto Carmona and Shin-Soo Choo turn it around soon, their success won't be sustainable.
No. 4 New York Yankees (12-6)
27 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 101-61
They're building a pitching staff that would've been elite half a decade ago and dealing with many questions about Derek Jeter and his amazing declining performance, and yet the Yankees are still an elite team. The Yankees are playing great ball and doing what is necessary to win. They will need to shore up their rotation and deal with Jeter's offensive and defensive woes, but with the best team money can buy, you know they'll find a way.
No. 3 Texas Rangers (14-7)
28 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 103-59
The Rangers got off to a hot start, seemed to cool off after Josh Hamilton's injury and are roaring back now. Adrian Beltre's making a liar out of me (I predicted another "I just signed a big contract time to mail it in" reaction) and the pitching has surprised. The Rangers just may make it back to the World Series if they keep playing this way, especially if they can keep Josh Hamilton healthy.
No. 2 St. Louis Cardinals (12-10)
29 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 104-58
Who'd have thought that Lance Berkman, Colby Rasmus and Matt Holliday would all be outperforming Albert Pujols and the Cardinals would be just fine? Odds are that Pujols will round into form soon enough (when hasn't he?) and that he'll augment an already dangerous Cardinals lineup. With Mitchell Boggs taking over for Ryan Franklin and stabilizing the closing role, the Cardinals are dangerous and primed to take a run through the NL Central.
No. 1 Philadelphia Phillies (15-6)
30 of 30
Pythagorean W-L: 104-58
This team is exactly where they're supposed to be. The Phillies went out and made the moves necessary to be a great team and seem well on their way toward making good on that promise. With Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels and Lee, it's not about the regular season for the Phillies; this team is built for the playoffs. The regular season is only about surviving to make it to the playoffs for Philadelphia, and as long as they're residing at the top of these rankings, they'll be just fine.
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