2011 NFL Mock Draft: Where Will Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker Land?
The 2001 NFL Draft is just days away, and the possibility of no other offseason moves has fans and experts alike chomping at the bit to see this yearโs influx of new talent.
Questions abound. Where will Jake Locker go? How far will DaโQuan Bowers fall? Has Mark Ingram fallen out of the first round all together?
Thereโs only one way to know, and thatโs to take a look at the mock.
1. Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
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If you would have told me when the national championship game ended that Iโd be mocking Newton as the No. 1 player off the board, Iโd have thought you were crazy. If you were to tell me today that Cam Newton will be a Pro Bowl quarterback, Iโll still say youโre crazy.
Clearly Newton has physical tools, but comparisons to Mike Vick (athleticism) and Tim Tebow (winning) are overblown. Heโs a poor manโs version of both. Perhaps the best comparison would be to Vince Young (and weโve seen how thatโs played out).
More than anything, this is an indictment on Jimmy Clausen. Clearly, he is not a legitimate NFL signal-caller if the Panthers are willing to pass on their many needs to select the ninth-rated talent on the board.
Other possibility: None. I will be shocked if Newton isnโt the choice.
2. Denver Broncos: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
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Itโs been said that there isnโt a better match in this year's draft than Dareus and Denver. The Broncos were last in the league in sacks and not much better against the run. Dareus is capable of helping on both fronts.
Dareus has looked great all offseason, he has rocketed past Auburnโs Nick Fairley and he is now considered in the top two prospects. With John Fox as the new coach, it will be no surprise when Dareusโ name is called.
Other possibility: Dareus is set just about as firmly as Newton.
3. Buffalo Bills: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
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Buffalo needs help on the offensive and defensive lines, so the choice of Miller shows just how important getting to the quarterback has become. The Bills' 2009 first-rounder, Aaron Maybin, has been a bust, but Miller isnโt likely to be such. His 4.46 40 time and 37-inch vertical are the type of things that give coaches and personnel men high hopes.
Obviously, quarterback is the sexy pick here for Buffalo, but I donโt think the Bills see Blaine Gabbert as the answer. The Bills front office will be happy with another stop-gap year from Ryan Fitzpatrick if they can get the all-important edge rusher in Miller.
Other possibility: Blaine Gabbert. A franchise QB is essential and Fitzpatrick clearly isnโt that. If Buffalo thinks Gabbert is, theyโll snatch him.
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4. Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
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Cincinnati offers another opportunity for a quarterback to come off the board. The fact that Carson Palmer would rather retire than play for the Bengals, while not surprising, pretty much says all you need to know about football in the Queen City. Owner Mike Brown, however, has long held firm when it comes to dealing with disgruntled players. Heโll likely do so again by calling Palmerโs bluff and picking the top-rated skill player in Green.
Terrell Owens is gone and Chad Ochocincoโs mouth is twice as good as his game. Green could step right in to a starting role and either convince Palmer to return, or make life much easier for Palmerโs replacement.
Other possibility: Blaine Gabbert. If the Cincy brass believes Palmer is going to be true to his word, theyโd be wise to get what they can for him and draft his replacement here.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
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What in the name of Kurt Warner was up with the Arizona quarterback situation last year? John Skelton was horrendous and Max Hall was worse. Without Warner, the Cards went from a Super Bowl contender to the fifth pick in the draft.
Arizona has one of the gameโs elite pass catchers in Larry Fitzgerald and it canโt let his most productive years be squandered by the likes of Skelton and Hall.
The Cards need help on defense, too, but the lockout means that they may not land a veteran QB, so Gabbert is a must. He needs to develop poise in the pocket, but even with that weakness, heโs exponentially better than anyone who is currently on the roster.
Other possibility: Patrick Peterson. I have Peterson as the top ranked player on my board. If Arizona thinks it can land Donovan McNabb or Kevin Kolb, Peterson will be the choice.
6. Cleveland Browns: Robert Quinn, DE/LB, UNC
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In a league dominated by quarterbacks, you can never have enough edge rushers. Unfortunately for the Browns, they donโt have any. Thatโs why theyโll reach, slightly, for Quinn.
DaโQuan Bowersโ injury concerns moves Quinn to the top of his position by default. His pass-rushing ability, however, will provide Cleveland with plenty of value.
Cleveland has needs all over the field, particularly on offense, but the Browns fall into the common theme of this yearโs draft by overlooking them to pick a player who can get at the quarterback.
Other possibility: Julio Jones. Clevelandโs receiving corps is atrocious. The Browns are still trying to see if Colt McCoy is the real deal, but theyโll have trouble making the decision so long as he surrounded by such little talent.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
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โToo good to pass up.โ That is the phrase echoed by everyone who has Peterson mocked to San Francisco. Peterson is the No. 1-rated player in the draft and will not fall past No. 7.
Sure, SF has a bigger need at DE, but with Quinn gone, the only elite talent is off the board. The Niners also need a quarterback because itโs time to admit that Alex Smith is a bust and move on. So if Gabbert falls, I could see him as the pick. What is more likely is that Gabbert and Quinn are both gone and new coach Jim Harbaugh decides to make Smith his project and takes Peterson.
Other possibility: Trade down. The elite players at SF's positions of need will be gone, so donโt be surprised if they trade with a team desperate to land Peterson.
8. Tennessee Titans: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
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Everyone and their mothers have Fairley mocked here, and for good reason. At one point he was being considered the best player in the draft. Since then heโs taken a bit of a slide due to his relative lack of size and Marcell Dareusโ meteoric rise. Dareusโ ability shouldnโt take away from Fairleyโs shine, though.
Fairley is quick and nasty, the likes of which is rarely seen. He is just the player to put swagger back in Tennesseeโs defense, which has been missing since Albert Haynesworth left town. Fairley isnโt nearly as big as Haynesworth, but he could very well be the same type of disruptive force.
Other possibility: Jack Locker. It seems unlikely, but the Titans could pick their next franchise QB and let him learn under Kerry Collins for a few years.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
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Jerry Jones has never taken an offensive lineman in the first round. That trend ends this year. Dallasโs line was comically bad last year and Tony Romo paid the price. Mark Colombo couldnโt block a potted plant last year and Smith will move right into his right tackle spot.
Normally right tackles arenโt taken so high, but Smith has limitless potential and will likely slide to the left side and protect Romoโs blindside before too long. If Romo stays upright, Dallas is a very dangerous team.
Other possibility: Prince Amukamara. Itโs no secret that Dallas needs a corner, as its secondary is nearly as bad as its line, but Jerry Jones will likely try to solve that with a different hard-to-spell A-named corner, Asomugha.
10. Washington Redskins: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
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Brian Orakpo needs help rushing the quarterback, but the choices here (Ryan Kerrigan, J.J. Watt, etc.) arenโt sexy enough for Daniel Snyder. So the head Redskin will look to fill another possible void, this one at wide receiver. Jones is big (6โ4โ, 220 lbs), fast (4.39 40), runs great routes and he is a tremendous blocker. Talk about sexy.
Santana Moss could be leaving Washington and Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly are the walking definitions of the word bust. Rex Grossman (can you believe heโs going to be the starter?) needs somebody to throw the ball to, and Jones gives him that.
I believe Jones will be the steal of this draft.
Other possibility: Aldon Smith. Heโd be the pass rusher they choose if they pass on Jones.
11. Houston Texans: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
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As sure a thing as you can get at this point in the draft. Houstonโs pass defense is atrocious. Itโs so bad that it will use a first-round pick on a corner for the second consecutive year.
Kareem Jackson started 16 games a year ago and looked awful doing so. There will be no such concerns with Amukamara. He has good size (6โ1โ, 200 lbs) and is as instinctive as any corner youโll see in a draft. Heโs quick and physical and will instantly upgrade the Texansโ secondary.
Other possibility: Trade up. I saw that Peter King had this in his mock and it makes a lot of sense for Houston to be San Franโs trading partner. For as good Amukamara is, Peterson is that much better. Heโs considered the best corner since Deion Sanders.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Aldon Smith, DE/LB, Missouri
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Do you hear that? Thatโs all the noise about the Vikings taking Jake Locker. Brett Favre is, finally, gone and Tavarius Jackson shouldnโt be starting in the Arena Football League.
The Vikes need a quarterback. And if Locker was ready to step in and start, Iโd say he should be the choice, but heโs not. Locker will need a couple of years of seasoning before heโs ready to start and Minnesota doesnโt have the luxury of time. That is why Smith will be the selection.
The Vikings have a chance to be far too competitive to spend this pick on a rookie who wonโt start right away. They will take their chances on landing McNabb, Kolb or even Young to lead the offense. Smith will give Minnesota a ton of value at this point, as an edge rusher who can change the game.
Other possibility: Jake Locker. Of course
13. Detroit Lions: DaโQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
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There was a time that Bowers was to be the first player off the board. He was called the total package: quick, agile and powerful. Then came the knee injury that scared every team. Relentless medical testing has followed (of course it has, this is the draft) and many see Bowers as a great gamble.ย Pairing him with Ndamukong Suh will give Detroit one of the most fearsome lines in the league, and a wicked pass rush is half the battle.
Other possibility: Anthony Castonzo. Detroit has to keep Matthew Stafford upright. With him theyโre a playoff contender, without him they are also-rans. Castonzo would do well to make that happen.
14. St. Louis Rams: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
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No player is moving up the board faster than Corey Liuget. He wasnโt even in the first round of my initial mock draft, and now I could see him gone before the second half of the teams select.
Liguet had 21 tackles for a loss and 10 QB pressures last season, and some are likening him to Warren Sapp. Lofty praise to be sure, but an apt comparison. Heโs a relentless pass rusher and the type of defensive lineman who helped Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo win a Super Bowl as Giants defensive coordinator.
Other possibility: Ryan Kerrigan. Like I said, Spagnuolo canโt have enough defensive linemen.
15. Miami Dolphins: Mike Pouncey, OG, Florida
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Many people have Mark Ingram going to Miami, but Ingram probably wonโt be elite and Miami will be able to find value at running back in the later rounds. Quarterback is also an option, but I think the Dolphins will give Chad Henne a little more time to develop. That leaves Miami open to take the best player available. Pouncey is that guy.
If bloodlines mean anything, Pouncey will be elite. His brother, Maurkice, is already one of the best centers in the game after finishing his rookie year in Pittsburgh. Mike will give the Fins a worry-free interior lineman for the next decade.
Other possibility: Mark Ingram. Miamiโs once formidable running game has fallen into disrepair.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
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Jacksonville missed badly in 2008 when it selected Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves to play end. Neither panned out, leaving the Jags desperate for a player who can get pressure on the QB.
Kerrigan certainly can get pressure with his power and non-stop motor. Heโs also the type of guy any team loves to add. He was an Academic All-American and team captain while at Purdue. If he can bring a pass rush and character to Jacksonville, the Jags will have found a winner.
Other possibility: J.J. Watt. Another Big Ten pass rusher, and a quality guy.
17. New England Patriots: Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal
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Jordan has great size and athleticism and could move all around the defensive line for New England. He has experience playing in a 3-4 and would be an extremely safe pick for the Pats. Adding Jordan to the end would allow Vince Wilfork to go back to plugging up the middle of the line and it would give NE a much improved front three.
I want to address the possibility that the Pats select Anthony Castonzo to protect Brady, as well. Castonzo is bright and hard working, the perfect Bill Belichick guy. While thatโs a possibility, it isnโt NE's โother possibility,โ because NE always has the same โother possibility."
Other possibility: Trade down. When isnโt Belichick looking to stockpile more picks?
18. San Diego Chargers: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
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Watt is a tremendous value at No. 18 and he fills a need for the Chargers. Watt is huge (6โ6โ, 290 lbs) and gives SD an end who is equally apt at stopping the run as he is rushing the passer.
San Diegoโs current end, Jacques Cesaire, is a fading free agent, so Watt could step right into a starting role. As a player who is in the top 10 in some mocks, he shouldnโt have a problem doing so.
Other possibility: Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA. Ayers could play inside or outside and is comfortable rushing the passer or dropping into coverage.
19. New York Giants: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
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The Boston College pipeline is in full effect as Tom Coughlin takes Castonzo. The G-Men have an aging line and Castonzo is versatile enough to play guard or tackle on either side of the line.
New York would probably like him to be its left tackle of the future, but questions persist if he is athletically gifted enough to do so. A stellar combine put some of those questions to rest and pretty much guaranteed that Castonzo will be a valuable starter at some line spot.
Other possibility: Mark Ingram. Ahmad Bradshaw is a free agent and Ingram is the best back available.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
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Clayborn has all the tools to be the buzz word in this yearโs draft: an edge rusher. His lackluster senior year, however, left people scratching their heads, and it left Clayborn falling down the board.
Tampa will be willing to take the risk because it is in desperate need of a pass rusher. Ever since Gaines Adams didnโt work out, the Bucs have been plugging the position with below average talent. Clayborn is definitely an above-average talent, but the question is if heโll harness that talent.
Other possibility: Justin Houston. Another edge rusher, Houston is shooting up boards.
21. Kansas City Chiefs โ Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
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KCโs right tackle spot is in a bad way and Carimi could immediately slide in and start. Heโs a smart guy, from a quality program, but most importantly, heโs a mauler.
A physical, nasty lineman, Carimi is the perfect match for the Chiefs power running game. Coming from Wisconsin, thereโs no doubt that Carimi can run block. He was also the Outland Award winner last year. It seems like a match made in heaven.
Other possibility: Phil TaylorโScott Pioli wants his Vince Wilfork to clog up the middle, but Taylorโs foot issues may scare off KC.
22. Indianapolis Colts โ Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
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Clearly Peyton Manning is the Indianapolis Colts, so the second most important job in Indy is keeping the franchise upright. Thatโs where Solder comes in. Solder is a converted tight end, so he possesses agility and footwork that is uncommon for a guy his size (6โ8โ, 315).
Heโs the perfect fit for the Colts finesse passing attack where he wonโt be asked to bulldoze D-linemen in the running game. With a little seasoning, Solder could be a franchise left tackle.
Other possibility: Derek SherrodโIf Solder is off the board, Sherrod will be the pick.
23. Philadelphia Eagles โ Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
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Philly could use an offensive lineman, but with Carimi and Solder both off the board, thatโs out of the question. The Birds could also use an edge rusher but they wonโt want to reach for Cam Hayward. That leaves Smith as the pick, and heโs not a bad consolation prize.
Smith is big and quick (6โ2โ, 4.46 40) and can be the physical counterpart to Asante Samuel. Itโs his character issues that allow him to fall into Phillyโs lap and we all know that the Eagles organization likes to give second chances. And that worked out pretty well last time.
Other possibility: Danny WatkinsโAndy Reid loves offensive linemen and Watkins is a hard nosed battler.
24. New Orleans Saints โ Justin Houston, DE/LB, Georgia
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Just like everyone else, New Orleans is looking for an edge rusher. Houston provides that in spades. Heโs played standing up and on the line and gives the Saints plenty of versatility. Heโll help the defense create pressure so that it wonโt have to rely on blitzers from the secondary so often.
Other possibility: Akeem AyersโThe UCLA product would give New Orleans much the same skills as Houston.
25. Seattle Seahawks โ Jake Locker, QB, Washington
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It will be pick No. 25 when the wait is finally over and Jake Locker comes off the board. Locker isnโt Aaron Rodgers, so this wonโt be the monumental fall it was for Rodgers but it will be a story nonetheless.
Locker has experience in a pro-style offense, but questions about his accuracy persist. With Matt Hasselback out the door, however, Pete Carroll will be willing to spend his first-round selection on the hometown boy, and hopes he makes good.
Other possibility: Marvin AustinโSeattle has needs all over, but none more pressing than defensive line.
26. Baltimore Ravens โ Cam Heyward, DE, Ohio St.
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Baltimore needs help at corner but with Smith off the board the Ravens will help the secondary by adding a pass rusher. Heyward is the son of former NFL running back Craig โIronheadโ Heyward but is twice the athlete of his old man.
Heโs big and strong but moves incredibly well laterally. Heโs a prototypical 3-4 end and his pass rushing abilities should take some pressure off of Baltimore's suspect secondary.
Other possibility: Brandon HarrisโThe Miami tradition is strong in Baltimore and Harris could sure up the suspect secondary.
27. Atlanta Falcons โ Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA
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Atlanta wants to draft great athletes and Ayers certainly fits that bill. He flies off the ball and has great lateral movement. Heโll be the perfect replacement for when John Abraham decides to retire. Ayers has a tendency to take plays off so the Atlanta coaching staff will have to stay on top of him.
Other Possibility: Kyle RudolphโThis will likely be Tony Gonzalezโs final season and Matt Ryan has grown accustomed to having a nice safety valve at tight end. Thatโs something Rudolph could offer.
28. New England Patriots โ Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
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The former Heisman Trophy winnerโs arthritic knee has caused him to tumble down the board a bit, but heโs still the No. 1 running back on the board by a large margin.
The Pats are expected to address the backfield at some point in the offseason and when the Alabama star is still available at No. 28 itโs too good to pass up. Bill Belichick has a long standing relationship with Nick Saban, so heโll be confident that Ingram will produce.
Other possibility: Trade DownโIf they keep No. 17, the Pats will almost certainly trade this pick away.
29. Chicago Bears โ Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi St.
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Chicago gave up a league-high 60 sacks last year, so offensive line help is a must. Sherrod isnโt the prospect of the other tackles in this yearโs draft, but Chicago is in such need that it must take the best lineman available.
Chicago has always been a rushing team, and Sherrod is more of a pass protector but Iโm sure Jay Cutler wonโt mind staying off the ground a few more times this year.
Other possibility: Marvin AustinโAustin character issues has caused him to fall down the board, but his ability to get up field and play the run is tempting.
30. New York Jets โ Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor
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Every 3-4 defense needs that huge nose tackle to eat up blockers. Thatโs exactly what Taylor does.
On the flip side, Taylor has plenty of red flags. A foot injury is a cause of concern, as is the felony assault he was charged with while still at Penn State. Heโs too strong and too quick to pass up, however. His ability to get after the quarterback means he may be a four-down player.
Other possibility: Muhammad WilkersonโThe Temple tackle will also be in the mix. He provides more versatility than Taylor.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers โ Brandon Harris, CB, Miami
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Pittsburgh needs help on the offensive line but that need is dwarfed by the glaring deficiency in the secondary. Aaron Rodgers proved just how weak the unit is when he carved it up in the Super Bowl. The secondary made Jordy Nelson looked like an All-Pro for crying out loud.
Harris is a gifted athlete with the ability to use his great burst to close passing windows quickly. He has great instincts and can help in run support. Heโll be starting in the Steelers secondary before long.
Other possibility: Aaron WilliamsโThe Texas corner is another possibility. He has better size than Harris but Harris has more upside.
32. Green Bay Packers โ Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple
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At 6โ5โ, 305, Wilkerson has the size and ability to play all over the line in Green Bayโs 3-4 defense. Experts see him as a Haloti Ngata type lineman, and thatโs a comparison that the Pack canโt ignore.
Green Bayโs line is razor thin and Wilkerson gives it so much versatility. Wilkersonโs stock has been rocketing, and he could be long gone at this point, but other teams' needs elsewhere mean that the Packers could be getting the steal of the first-round.
Other possibility: Brooks ReedโThis Arizona prospect will be the selection if Wilkerson is off the board. Heโs a relentless pass rusher, and he and Clay Matthews would give offensive coordinators nightmares.
Conclusion
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As always the intrigue comes at the quarterback position. Lockerโs fate will be a point of huge interest, as will the possibility that Ryan Mallett and Andy Dalton may go in Round 1.
The true stars of the 2011 draft, however, will be the pass rushers; as many as 15 pass rushers could come off the board in the first round.
The first three or four picks may be in stone, but after that anything goes.
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