Roger Federer: His Prospects for the Clay Season 2011

The news in the tennis world has been, as usual, varied of late, but united by two commonalities: the clay and Rafael Nadal.

As if his win in Monte Carlo wasn't big enough, he has now appeared, perhaps controversially, in support of the ITF's disapproval of the US's choice of court surface for their upcoming clash with Spain.

Mid-2011 seems like its going to turn out full of the our star king of clay.

What about the other guys? Well, Murray's certainly not gone, as was evinced at Monte Carlo, and Djokovic has yet to appear on a clay court; perhaps, we are only waiting for yet another super-surge from the Serbian vanguardsman. Big things may be expected from both.

And finally, what about the supposed other half of the tennis world's sanity—Roger Federer?

Little has been spoken of the Swiss master since his woeful loss at Monte Carlo to Jurgen Melzer. Without any disrespect to the very courageous and impressive performance from the Austrian, there was just an uncomfortable sense that this was a match not unlike, in some sense, to so many others played between Federer and a streakster.

It reeked, unfortunately, of a similar, albeit not as terrible, straight-sets loss to Filipo Volandri at Rome a couple of years ago—a suspicion confirmed the next day when Melzer himself fell woefully to David Ferrer, winning only five games.

Federer, to be sure, would have won that match, in a better, more motivated, mood. The only problem is that precisely - the motivation. Many pundits have questioned the Swiss maestro's desire and motivation, and in all honesty, it is a very necessary question, after sixty-seven titles, and over ninety career tournament finals.

Against Melzer, it wasn't as if he didn't try—God forbid—it was merely that all that he could try just turned out less spectacularly that he intended, and indeed as it would have turned out a couple of years ago.

A forehand at break point at 3-4 in the second would tell the story: It was the perfect inside-out shot, but ended up missing the line by an inch. An inch of desire.

Peter Bodo is probably most accurate when he describes Federer's losses as simply the consequence of a natural process of ageing and mental competitive fatigue. The guy is good enough to win anything—it's just a matter of him not wanting to win as much as before.

Which begs the question: What are his title prospects for the 2011 clay season?

We have all, unfairly, judged this portion of the season his weakest, and for quite some years now. Lets face it, the guy is good enough to win anything, but even in the years when he wanted so badly to win—at a certain Parisian tournament—he wasn't able.

All too often, he found a certain Spaniard in his way.

Without re-iterating anything too pedestrian, however, it should be said that Federer does have that sort of game that can win on any surface. It is a classic, almost alien and piquant style of play—the big serve and forehand backed up by a reliable, if not as deadly, backhand. This, in an age of the biggest hitters tennis has ever seen, who can blast you out of position from just about any middling ball.

We are topped, moreover, by someone who hits with about twice as much spin as is human to do. To be world No. 3, really, isn't too bad at all.

For Federer, of course, the problem is that he is being legitimately challenged, and beaten, and players are recognising the vulnerability—the all-too-humanity of Federer. On clay, most of all, it would be his biggest challenge.

Yet as much as he might lack the power of a Nadal or a Djokovic he does, in fact, possess probably the most explosive offensive game in tennis. It is Federer's ability, in full flight, to pummel that forehand or carve that dropper that has proved his greatest asset.

Has it worked of late? Perhaps not.

Against Nadal, he was lost and to Djokovic, on three occasions, perhaps slightly impatient. His whole tournament at Monte Carlo seemed, on the contrary, to be lacking this very aggression and instant offense. It all starts with his serve, but really catches pace with his forehand.

Mind you, this aggressive mindset, while it has rebounded on several occasions this year, would be the best recipe for longevity, and indeed, is the source of the consistency he has enjoyed all these years. For him to adapt this game to the current climate, however, it would need to be tempered by a certain patience—to be able to rally it out just long enough to find the right opening to implement his attack game.

We all know, Federer at his very best can beat just about anybody. Its often just a matter of him imposing himself on a match - something which he has found some difficulty in doing of late. He probably won't be going on anything of a clay-court rampage for the rest of the season, but it would come down to the big matches.

Will he get to them? Maybe, possible, and on his best day, most likely. Will he win them? That would take an even extra effort.

For the fans, it can only be hoped that Federer remains a force this clay-season. It would be a joy to see him pitting his best against the best of his rivals—and we all know what a dream match-up would be come Roland Garros, should the names of Federer and Nadal find each other in the main draw there.

The clay season, and tennis, would be greatly deprived without it.