2011 NFL Draft: Who Will Bust Like Vern Gholston or Aaron Maybin This Year?
We see defensive stars in NCAA football show off their ability to sack quarterbacks and wonder if they will be able to continue dominating the game at the next level.
As we are now just eight days away from the start of the 2011 NFL Draft, every team is going about the final procedures of establishing their final slots on their big draft boards.
For each team that is potentially looking to add a defensive linemen, which is thought to be the best and deepest position in the draft class, they want to make sure they do not draft a player that will blow up and become a bust.
Two recent prime examples of players that seemed to have the world on a string were Vernon Gholston of the New York Jets and Aaron Maybin of the Buffalo Bills. Both players were highly thought of sack artists in college, but five collective seasons later, the two players have combined for as many sacks as I have—zero.
We will break down the sack totals from the last three years of NCAA football and identify which players in this draft class have continued to produce year after year. We will also identify the one-year wonders for who they are, players that have not been able to repeat their success for a whole myriad of reasons.
Maybe we will see a trend or a red flag that gives NFL teams a reason to pause and re-consider.
Profile of Vernon Ghoulston
1 of 8
Vernon Gholston was the sixth overall draft pick of the New York Jets in 2008.
The defensive end from Ohio State made 22.5 sacks over his final two years at Ohio State. One year, he racked up 14 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss. He picked up a sack by beating Jake Long in college, so it appeared he was ready to test his skills at the next level.
He had played for two straight years, starting 12 games in each season, so he had good starting experience to bring to the Jets.
But after his first three full seasons at the NFL, the Jets placed on him waivers after the 2010 season ended. In looking at his production over that time, Gholston managed 42 tackles in 45 games, but the surprising statistic was that he had no sacks.
Will a change of scenery help him out and let him return to past glory? Nobody knows for sure right now, but whatever he was doing for the last three years was not working very well.
Profile of Aaron Maybin
2 of 8
Just like Gholston, Aaron Maybin was also a reasonably high draft pick, as the Buffalo Bills selected him in the first round in 2009 with the 11th overall pick.
Maybin had all the measure-ables you would want. Ran the 40 in 4.59, had a 40.5" vertical leap, a 10'9" broad jump. He was a finely tuned athlete.
Maybin was just coming off a great year at Penn State, where he had 12 sacks and 20 overall tackles for loss. He wound up tied for fifth place in the NCAA in 2008 for sacks and the sky appeared to be the limit.
First thing he did was hold out for a prolonged negotiation session before he signed his rookie contract. He got in to camp late and never was able to take advantage of the extra coaching he should have received with the other rookies.
Then Chan Gailey came on board and brought in a new defensive coordinator in George Edwards. Maybin seemed to have trouble fitting in to the new defense, even though the new scheme appeared to be ideally suited for him.
There have been grumblings about not practicing very hard or wanting it badly enough.
The Bills tried to carve out a spot for Maybin on special teams, but he was beaten out of that by players that were drafted much lower or were undrafted rookie free agents.
Here we are entering his third year, and to date, Maybin has 24 tackles and one forced fumble in two years. Gailey has already put him on notice that if he doesn't earn playing time on the field this year, there is no room for him on the roster.
List of 2011 Draft Class That Appeared in Top 80 in Sacks 2010
3 of 8
In researching for this article, the following group are players that are eligible for the 2011 draft that finished somewhere in the top 80 players for sacks in the 2010 NCAA season. Number of sacks follow their name in parentheses.
Da'Quan Bowers - Clemson (15.5), Ryan Kerrigan - Purdue (12.5), Nick Fairley - Auburn (11.5), Chris Carter - Fresno (11.0), Von Miller - Texas A&M (10.5), Justin Houston - Georgia (10.0), Muhammad Wilkerson - Temple (9.5), Jabaal Sheard - Pittsburgh (Nine), Dontay Moch - Nevada (8.5), Jeremy Beal - Oklahoma (8.5), Sam Acho - Texas (Eight), Nate Irving - North Carolina St. (Seven), Allen Bailey - Miami, Fla. (Seven), J. J. Watt - Wisconsin (Seven), Brooks Reed - Arizona (6.5) and Mason Foster - Washington (6.5).
That is the list. If a player you are interested in does not appear on the list, it is because they had either less than 6.5 sacks or they missed the year due to injury or suspension.
.png?w=256)
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
NCAA Sack Leaders in 2009
4 of 8
Von Miller - Texas A&M (17), Ryan Kerrigan - Purdue (12), Jeremy Beal - Oklahoma (11), Aldon Smith - Missouri (11), Robert Quinn - North Carolina (11), Adrian Clayborn - Iowa (11), Greg Romeus - Pittsburgh (Eight), Sam Acho - Texas (Eight), Justin Houston - Georgia (Seven), Allen Bailey - Miami, Fla (Seven), Cam Jordan - California (Six), Cam Heyward - Ohio State (Six), Marcell Dareus - Alabama (Six), Muhammad Wilkerson - Temple (Six) and Dontay Moch - Nevada (Six).
The list above is the entire group from the upcoming draft class that finished in the top 80 or had at least six sacks for the season.
2008 NCAA Sack Leaders
5 of 8
Interestingly enough, there are only five players from the upcoming draft class that finished in the top 80 sack list from the 2008 season.They are:
Dontay Moch - Nevada (11), Brooks Reed - Arizona (Eight), Jeremy Beal - Oklahoma (Seven), Ryan Kerrigan - Purdue (Seven) and Greg Romeus - Pittsburgh (Seven).
For coaches and general managers that wanted to see a long history of production (especially when it comes to sacks), the shallow depth of this list has to be somewhat disconcerting.
Which Players Placed Last Three Years in Sacks?
6 of 8
Out of the entire draft class, there are only three defenders that consistently placed in the top 80 for the past three years running.
Those three are: Jeremy Beal (Oklahoma), Dontay Moch (Nevada) and Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue).
For teams that have been burned by the one-year wonder types, they might be moving all three of these players up their draft boards.
Players That Appeared in Two of Last Three Years of Sacks Leaders
7 of 8
Players that are in the current draft class that placed in the top 80 list for sacks two different times over the past three years include:
Sam Acho (Texas), Greg Romeus (Pittsburgh), Von Miller (Texas A&M), Justin Houston (Georgia), Muhammad Wilkerson (Temple), Allen Bailey (Miami, Fla), and Brooks Reed (Arizona).
These players have displayed a degree of success for multiple years which will give NFL general managers a stronger sense that they have been able to sustain their skills and continue to battle over the years.
This group will also be receiving higher grades and also will be deemed to have lower risk.
The Dreaded One-Year Wonders List
8 of 8
The following list is the key slide of the article.
For whatever reason, each of the guys on this list have only been able to crack the top 80 sacks list just one time over the span of the past three years in the NCAA.
What that means is that between injuries, suspensions, redshirting, transferring, being benched, or not staying in school long enough, these players decided to test the waters at the next level with only one solid year of sack totals in their portfolio.
Here is the one-year wonder list:
J.J. Watt (Wisconsin), Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson), Nick Fairley (Auburn), Chris Carter (Fresno), Jabaal Sheard (Pittsburgh), Nate Irving (North Carolina State), Mason Foster (Washington), Aldon Smith (Missouri), Robert Quinn (North Carolina), Adrian Clayborn (Iowa), Cam Jordan (California), Cam Heyward (Ohio State) and Marcell Dareus (Alabama).
It will be interesting to come back and revisit this list to see in the span of the next two to three years who are the players that turned out to be busts, and which list did they come from. If playing to a level of consistency means anything, the chances are greatest that the busts will be found on this slide.
Note - there are a number of defensive linemen that don't appear on even one season in the top 80 over the past three years. You can do a little detective work if you feel so inclined to come up with your own list.
Here is a handy link to a source to get you started on your way.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
