MLB Quick Hits: Sabathia Talk/LCS Picks

According to Jon Heyman of SI.com, the New York Yankees want to sign at least two of the three premier free agent starting pitchers on the market—A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe and CC Sabathia.

Although Sabathia has said that money will not be the ultimate factor that drives a decision for him, I have a difficult time taking him at his word. Sabathia has said all the right things to the local Milwaukee media, but he is going to follow the money.

Since the Yankees have unlimited financial resources to work with (especially when moving into a new ballpark), there is no team that can match them in a bidding war. Sabathia recently shot down the rumors that he is interested in returning to California. He certainly could end up in a number of other potential cities, but New York—with the Mets as a slim possibility—seems like the best bet.

Lowe, a Scott Boras client, has had a nice season for the Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a 3.24 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 34 starts. Using his excellent sinker, the 35-year-old right-hander posted a 7-3 record with a 2.38 ERA after the All-Star break, limiting hitters to a .226 batting average in 87 innings. He has also pitched well in the postseason to this point, picking the right time, for Boras and his bank account, to find his groove on the mound.

Burnett has not told the Toronto Blue Jays if he will opt out of his contract—yet. Odds are, though, this will happen fairly soon, leaving him as a realistic option for Brian Cashman and the Yankees.

He won 18 games in Toronto in 2008, but posted a 4.07 ERA, which is slightly higher than his 3.81 career average. The 31 year-old right-hander is also always an injury threat, but can miss bats as well as anyone in the business, which was evident by his 231 strikeouts in 221.1 innings pitched. If I were a betting man, I would say that he will be pitching in the Pinstripes next year alongside Sabathia, not Lowe.

The Chicago Cubs picked up the option on Rich Harden’s contact yesterday. This was the right decision by the Cubs.

While Harden is always at risk of injury, he is a dominant pitcher when he is healthy enough to pitch. Since coming over to Chicago in a mid season trade with the Oakland Athletics, he posted a 1.77 ERA while striking out 89 in 71 innings pitched. Jim Hendry was not left with a lot of time to make a decision, sure, but he made the right choice. A recent test showed that he had no structural damage in his right shoulder.

There is a lot of talk about whether or not Troy Percival will be put on the Tampa Bay Rays’ ALCS roster. Well, if it were up to me, I would say no.

Percival is a veteran who has World Series experience. These two factors have led several mainstream analysts and writers to talk about how he is an essential piece to the puzzle and needs to be on the roster. To their credit, he certainly has had a tremendous positive impact on several of the Rays’ young talented arms, all while helping to instill a culture of winning in the clubhouse.

However, based on his performance in the second half—6.11 post-All-Star break ERA, 16 walks in 17.2 innings pitched—and an obvious decline in his command and stuff, Joe Maddon can no longer trust him with a lead late in the game. Period.

The closer-by-committee group of Grant Balfour, who throws absolute smoke, Chad Bradford, one of the best groundball specialists in the games who practically never surrenders home runs, and Dan Wheeler has a better chance of getting the job done in the ninth inning with the game on the line. So, whoever says that this relief method does not work, think again—talent is the secret ingredient, though.

So while the talking heads will give the bullpen advantage to Boston, which does have a better pure closer in Jonathan Papelbon, not having a healthy Percival is not that big of a deal. Even if the veteran righty is healthy, he does not deserve to be pitching important innings at this stage of the season.

Picks for the Upcoming Series

Although anything can happen in a short series, I will offer up my picks for the upcoming LCS in each league.

American League

Throw the experience argument out the window right now. Despite what they say on TBS, the Rays will not be intimidated by the Red Sox. It really comes down to talent more than anything else. All of the talk about heart and such makes for a more compelling story to some journalists.

If Tampa Bay could not handle the pressure, would they have won the AL East?

Every time these two teams met up in the regular season, it seems, the same stories would show up about how the young, pesky Rays would fade under the pressure.

Well, they did not, outlasting the Red Sox to win baseball’s most competitive division.

With that being said, too many people are also focusing on how the Rays won the regular season series, 10-8. Well, throw that argument out the window, too. This time last week, everybody in the media was talking about how the Los Angeles Angels dominated Boston all year as well, and look how that series turned out.

One thing is for sure, though. These teams have battled it out all year, and it is going to be an exciting series.

Boston has the better offense, in my opinion, and are always a threat to hang up a 13 spot like they did off of Scott Kazmir in September. They led the league with a .358 on-base percentage, meaning that they will force Tampa Bay pitchers to throw strikes.

They have so many guys—from MVP candidates Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilus to Big Papi—who can cause tremendous damage with one swing of the bat.

But the Rays’ pitching staff has shown that they are up to the challenge. James “Big Game” Shields will start Game one like he did in the Division Series. Shields is likely to last until at least the seventh inning, which will be good for his bullpen with Scott Kazmir, who labors and has had trouble making it through five lately, taking the hill in Game two.

If he can turn in a quality start—perhaps similar to his complete game shutout against Boston back in April—and the Rays can jump out to an early series lead, they may never look back.

Daisuke Matsusaka, similar to Kazmir, has not been efficient with his pitches. The Rays need to make him throw strikes, showing sound plate discipline, because when he does throw it over the plate, he is tough to hit (lowest opponents’ batting average in the majors).

The other pitching match-ups are equally as intriguing. Which Kazmir will show up? The guy who was so dominant in June and July or post-All-Star break Kaz?

Jon Lester has been excellent in the postseason, and has really emerged as a front-line starter. Lester, in fact, seems to be the ace of the Boston staff right now. It will be tough for Tampa Bay to scrape runs across against him. Ditto for Josh Beckett, who had a down year but is still one of the best big-game pitchers in the game.

Matt Garza, though, can shut any offense down on any given night in his own right.

All-in-all, the pitching match-ups seem pretty even, though Andy Sonnanstine is a better fourth option than Tim Wakefield.

The Rays have the better defense, having converted more balls put into play into outs than any other team in the majors, and I think the edge in bullpen.

So, while anything can happen (cannot stress this enough), I choose the Rays if they can continue to throw strikes, catch the ball and get the timely hits, from nearly everyone on the roster, like they have been doing all along.

The key for them, though, is to get into the Boston bullpen early and often. Papelbon is lights out, but the link to the closer has been a problem at times. Manny Delcaremen and Justin Masterson have helped a great deal in the second half, but the Rays will have an easier time scoring runs off the likes of Mike Timlin than a Beckett, Matsuzaka, or Lester.

Another "X factor" to be considered is home field advantage. Both the Rays and Red Sox are much better at home than on the road. Tropicana Field has been kryptonite for Boston in ’08, albeit in a small sample size, and the Rays had the majors’ best record at home.

Still, the Red Sox were not too far behind, as they love playing in front of the hometown crowd at Fenway Park—a tough environment to play in for an opposing team.

Since the series starts at the Trop, where the Rays are 20-2 in games with 30,000-plus fans in attendance (the cowbell effect), they have the edge in this regard. Though they took two out of three at Fenway in September, winning at least one game on the road will be quite a challenge.

It is going to be exciting, but, due to all of the factors and my tremendous bias for the new pride of St. Pete (although my cousin plays in the Red Sox organization), I am going with the Rays in seven.

National League

I am a bit lazy to make a case right now, after going on a seemingly endless tangent about the ALCS, but I think the Philadelphia Phillies will take the cake in the series.

Cole Hamels is a stud, though he does not have the mid-90s heat. Brad Lidge has been a stud all year, having converted 41 saves in 41 tries. And the Phillies also have a number of great relievers to bridge the gap to Lidge.

Plus, Ryan Howard has been on an insane tear since September. Howard, the NL leader in homers and RBI, has posted a ridiculous .1000-plus OPS over the past 30 games, picking the right time to get hot while doing enough in 30 days to enter the MVP conversation.

Pat Burrell can mash as well. Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins do a nice job of setting the table. And, in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, they are going to score some runs.

Sinkerball pitcher Lowe will negate some of that, but I like the Phillies at home, and see them taking at least one game in Los Angeles.

Manny Ramirez is on fire, too, Rafael Furcal is back, the Dodgers’ pitching has been excellent and the match-ups favor the flavor of the month in the NL. But I am not buying into them yet.

Sure,they made fools out of the best team in the NL last week, and Man-Ram is playing on a whole other level. The Phillies, however, were the better team all year, in a tougher division.

I might be a fool for going against Joe Torre, but the October magic has not worked for him since 2000.

Phillies in six.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to [e-mail].