Next Tennis Stop: ATP Madrid Masters

Mutua Madrileña Masters Madrid – Last year this tournament was tremendous!  Turbulent, tempestuous and totally upending!  Federer was the number one seed and Nadal was, of course, number two. 

On his way to victory, the ever-elusive and always unpredictable David Nalbandian defeated Nadal in the quarterfinals, Djokovic in the semifinals and the impeccable Mr. Federer in the final.

To say this was an upset is the understatement of understatements!  This year promises more surprises because in the past six years there have been six different champions—counting backwards, Nalbandian, Federer, Nadal, Safin, Ferrero and Agassi. 

Madrid is the tournament where “the tennis honchos” are to honor Nadal for securing the number one ranking by wrestling it away from Federer.  This was accomplished after barking at Federer’s heels for more than three years. Why now?  Madrid is in Spain, after all. 

No one is quite sure whether Fab Fed will show up.  An announcement is expected minute to minute and all are on pins and needles dreading his decision either way! 

There are those who hope he stays home to rest and get ready for 2009 and there are those who think the tournament would not be regarded as highly if Roger chooses not to play.

The website is replete with Nadal and Federer in futuristic costumes making them look somewhat warrior-like.  The costumed armor, however, seems more like armadillo skin than anything else.  Bizarre!  Is this more ATP bad marketing?

Federer cannot be anxious to partake in the ceremonial blood-letting, aka the coronation of the new king.  He has been nice long enough.

The big 4 will be present, assuming Federer joins in: Nadal (1), Federer (2), Djokovic (3) and Murray (4).  The rest of the field will be comprised of the usual suspects, especially since the last two spots for the year-end championship are still up for grabs. 

There are only eight total spots available in Shanghai for the round-robin tournament.  Most players will be fighting for the privilege of taking part.

Nadal, Federer, Djokovic, & Murray have already made it and Davydenko and Roddick should make it easily but both have some work to finish. 

Next in line are (1) Ferrer, who is having his issues this year; (2) Blake, who has pretty much faded out of sight since the U.S. Open; (3) Del Potro, who is on fire; and (4) Stanislav Wawrinka, who missed a golden opportunity to move up by losing in the first round in Vienna. These players are all within striking distance.

But there are many more players with potential to move up and bump others out like Gonzales, Simon, Tsonga, Almagro, Verdasco, and so on. 

It was out of this pool of players that Nalbandian emerged last year, finally securing the No. 9 position from way back in the pack—but electing not to travel to Shanghai as an alternate.

So who will win in Madrid?  We are talking about an indoor hard court surface.  Home court advantage—does it count here?  Hard courts are generally not Nadal’s favorite surface.  Much will depend on the draw.  It should be noted that we no longer have a “soft” number four now that Murray has supplanted Davydenko. 

It doesn’t really matter if Djokovic is in Federer’s half of the draw, because it will mean Murray is in Nadal’s half.  We know Murray can beat Nadal on hard courts.  Federer, on the other hand, beat both Djokovic and Murray at the U.S. Open.

Del Potro seems to be a likely candidate to break through, although he lost to Berdych in Tokyo last week and he has been playing a lot of tennis lately.  This week, he is competing in Vienna. 

Davydenko is also finishing up business by competing in Moscow. We can never discount a run by players like Gasquet, Berdych and Bagdatis.  As we learned, Nalbandian cannot be overlooked—ever!

Whoever might win in Madrid after the top four will place himself in contention for the year-end championship in Shanghai.  Even doing well might be enough to get in the door.

There is a month left in the 2008 season.  If the year-end championship meant as much as it should, fall of 2008 would be equally as exciting as any other time of the year.  But because the championship is not regarded highly, most of the media are paying only cursory attention to the race.

What interests them most is whether Federer will meet Nadal again or, in this instance, whether Federer will bother to show up at all!