NFL Draft 2011: How Many Quarterbacks Will Be Taken in the First Round?

Investing a first round draft pick in a quarterback has always proved to be a risky proposition for NFL franchises.

For every hit and success story there seems to be twice as many misses.

For every Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers or Phillip Rivers, there are just as many failed busts such as JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith or Joey Harrington to equal things out and keep teams wary of using a high pick on a young signal caller.

There’s no denying that the quarterback position is by far the most difficult to evaluate in all of football.

Not a single NFL scout, GM or coach can accurately predict with 100 percent certainty what the outcome will be when you place the weight of leading an NFL franchise on a young 22-year-old’s shoulders.

In recent years, we’ve seen that pressure devour even the most successful of college quarterbacks for one reason or another.

There is no pre-draft test, interview or drill that will separate the cans from the cannots.

Teams in need of a starting quarterback are left to simply hope that they can properly sift through the frauds to find their golden arm of the future.

This year, there appears to be an unusual amount of teams that could be looking for starting quarterback help early on in the draft. But the only problem is that the one can’t miss quarterback prospect, Stanford’s Andrew Luck, decided to stay in school for another year.

So now teams like the Redskins, the Vikings and others are left to choose from a class of quarterbacks that’s filled with intriguing yet questionable prospects.

The two clear-cut top names of the bunch are Auburn’s Cam Newton and Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert, who appear to be the only guaranteed first round picks at this point.

Both Newton and Gabbert are likely to be selected in the top ten and there’s a good chance that one of them could be Carolina’s choice at No. 1.

Newton is the favorite to be the No. 1 pick right now, although the reigning Heisman winner does have his fair share of doubters.

Newton, who led Auburn to an undefeated season and a national title in his first year as a starter, has as much as physical ability as any quarterback we’ve seen in the last decade. However, the 6’5’’ 250 lb. junior has had to answer questions about everything from his checkered past to the type offense he ran at Auburn

Gabbert, on the on the other hand, looks like the safer pick of the two, even though he doesn’t possess the same kind of potential star power as his counterpart.

Gabbert, who has thrown for over 6,700 yards over the last two years, has seen his stock soar after leading the Tigers to an upset victory over then No. 1 ranked Oklahoma back in October.

The 6’4’’ 235 lb. junior has also had to deal with questions about the pass-heavy spread offense he played in at Missouri. But Gabbert has reportedly dazzled in all phases of the postseason process and he has now likely stabilized himself as a top ten value.

After both Newton and Gabbert come off the board, no one is really quite sure how the rest of the quarterbacks will fall.

Nevada’s Colin Kapernick, Washington’s Jake Locker, Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett, and TCU’s Andy Dalton look to be the next in line, with Florida State’s Christian Ponder lurking somewhere in the conversation.

The crazy part is that there’s a chance all of them could end up going in the first round or it’s possible that every one of them could all fall to the second day. It all depends on how many teams are willing to trade back up into the later part of the first round.

Kapernick is the hot name of the draft right now and one of the biggest risers. There’s a reason I ranked him at No. 3 (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/659664-2011-nfl-draft-preview-the-top-10-quarterbacks) when I did my quarterback rankings last week.

Kaepernick is the type of developmental quarterback who has all the physical tools to be an upper-echelon starter in the NFL but he’s going to take at least a year to adapt to an NFL offense after playing in the Pistol at Nevada.

I would expect him to be the third quarterback off the board with some team like the Redskins or Raiders trading up into the 20s to get him. It wouldn’t even totally shock me if the Miami Dolphins took a hard look at him at No. 15.

The next two quarterbacks, Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett, have seen their stock take a huge hit in the media over the past few months, but I still have feeling NFL teams aren’t as concerned and most still value the two as first round picks.

Jake Locker was considered to be the favorite to go No. 1 before the start of the 2010 season but after a mediocre showing as a senior, he has seen his stock plummet.

Still, Locker has the athleticism and physical tools to be an NFL starter and it’s hard to see him dropping completely out of the first round considering there are so many quarterback hungry teams out there.

Unlike Locker, Ryan Mallett has seen his stock take a hit for reasons unrelated to his performance on the field.

I wrote an article back when Mallett first declared (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/572087-ryan-mallett-rumors-what-dont-we-know-about-the-arkansas-quarterback) explaining the possibility that Mallett’s stock could take a major unforeseen hit and soon enough the whispers of drug and alcohol problems began to pop up.

Teams may question Mallett’s ability to lead an NFL locker room,however, it’s hard not to like what you see out on the field.

Although, he struggled in a few clutch situations in 2010 (See games against Alabama and Ohio State), Mallett has the best arm we’ve seen from a quarterback prospect since Jay Cutler came out of Vanderbilt.

The concerns about Mallett’s personality may be valid, but I have trouble seeing him fall any further than Seattle at No. 25.

Then there’s Andy Dalton, a quarterback who has turned into everyone’s darling these past few months.

Dalton lacks the physical skills to be an NFL starter but his intangibles are off the charts and he’s got the all important leadership trait that personnel folks value so highly.

It’s hard to see a team using a first round pick on Dalton, even though it’s possible, but he should definitely hear his name called early on in the second round.

Although no one can really properly forecast what will happen at this point. In the end, I expect five quarterbacks to come off the board on draft night.

Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert will be top ten picks, while Colin Kapernick, Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett should all sneak their way into the back end of the first round.