MLB Free Agency: Why It Would Be Foolish for Any Team to Sign Albert Pujols
After the 2011 season, one of the greatest players in the history of baseball will hit the open market and sell himself to the highest bidder. Reportedly, he will be looking for a 10-year contract.
Say what you will about greed and loyalty and "having enough" and "getting yours;" baseball is a business, and as one of the game's great players, Albert Pujols deserves to be paid like it.
Except, in 2011, at the age of 31, Pujols is having his first bad year. Do not get us wrong. Many players, including Ryan Howard, would love to have Pujols' numbers right now, but by Pujols' standards, the numbers are decidedly down to the point of being horrendous.
Which begs the question: should Albert Pujols receive the richest contract in baseball history after this season?
For our part, we believe that Pujols does deserve this historic contract. For what it is worth, though, we are also of the opinion that if any team other than the Cardinals gives Pujols what he is looking for, those teams would be fools.
Here are five reasons why.
5. The Ken Griffey Jr. Effect
1 of 5
Did you say 10-year contract? Run the other way.
Let's face it. The hitters of the last 30 years who played every season of their 20s has broken down after the age of 30.
Quick, check out this list of players who had over 450 plate appearances in a season at the age of 21. Pick out the players who continued to produce late into their 30s. Here's a hint: you will not need two hands.
Rickey Henderson, Roberto Alomar, Ruben Sierra, Edgar Renteria, Miguel Cabrera, Rocco Baldelli, Ryan Zimmerman, Jose Canseco, Delmon Young, Alex Rodriguez, Elvis Andrus, Ken Griffey Jr., Carl Crawford, Cal Ripken Jr., Andruw Jones, Jayson Heyward, Luis Rivas, Adrian Beltre, Juan Gonzalez, Justin Upton, Sammy Sosa, Delino DeShields, Gregg Jefferies, Gary Sheffield, Jose Guillen, Ivan Rodriguez, Harold Baines, Ozzie Guillen...
The number of players who continue to perform at an exceptionally high level into their mid- and late-30s is already limited. There are practically none who have done it after starting their major league careers at such a young age.
4. It Is a Contract Year
2 of 5
Granted, the "contract year" theory is more prevalent in the world of professional football than in Major League Baseball.
Nevertheless, players are supposed to play up in a contract year. In fact, over time, statistics generally show that players do play up in contract years.
That Pujols is having the worst year of his career, and by a great margin, in a contract year is an indication that, at a time when he desperately wants and needs to perform well, he may no longer be capable of it.
3. 7,000 Plate Appearances
3 of 5
We think of Albert Pujols as a young guy, and for the most part a 31-year-old baseball player, while not a kid, is still well inside of his prime and not old by any stretch of the imagination.
Nevertheless, this season Pujols has crossed over the 7,000 plate appearances mark. While this is not a historical number—he currently ranks just 391st all time—it is still a significant milestone.
Many players who we do not consider to have had short careers finished right around 7,000 plate appearances, including Reggie Sanders (7,043), Tim Salmon (7,039), Lou Boudreau (7,023), Bill Dickey (7,060), Ozzie Guillen (7,133) and Eric Karros (7,100).
There is no reason to think that Pujols is going to stop producing at the 7,000 plate appearances point or the 8,000 point or the 9,000 point.
But at this point in his career, the odds are now substantially against him playing upwards of six, seven or eight more seasons at anything like the production he has put up to this point.
.png?w=256)
2. General Decline of Offense
4 of 5
In 2001, three players made their major league debuts whose performance in the last 10 years have come to help define a decade of baseball. Those players were Albert Pujols, Adam Dunn and Ichiro Suzuki, and for 10 years, those three players did remarkably consistent and wonderful things.
Pujols we know about. Dunn hit roughly 40 home runs every season. Ichiro hit over .300 and collected over 200 hits.
In 2011, all three of these players would appear to have finally crashed. Pujols is hitting .266 with a .761 OPS. Dunn is currently hitting so far below .200 he could break DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak record, and he might not be back above the Mendoza Line.
Meanwhile, Ichiro is hitting .266 and is on pace to fall well below 200 hits for the first time in his career.
But these are not the only formerly stalwart rocks of consistently whose star has faded this season. Ryan Howard's numbers are down, as are Carl Crawford's, Justin Morneau's, Derek Jeter's and Torii Hunter's.
Do not think that I do not know that a bunch of other guys having down years in addition to Pujols does not actually prove anything. At the same time, when you are holding a dead fish in your hand, seeing 20 other dead fish floating in the lake certainly leads you to the conclusion that something bigger is happening.
1. Recent Free Agent Atrocities
5 of 5
Forget for a moment that we are talking about Albert Pujols.
Ask yourself: what big money contracts are paying off big right now?
Jason Bay? Johan Santana? Ryan Howard? Derek Jeter? Carl Crawford? Jayson Werth? Carlos Beltran? Carlos Zambrano? John Lackey?
We could continue on like this for a quite a while. The baseball world is getting to the point where the amount of money being thrown away on injured, mediocre or ineffective players rivals the gross domestic product of most Third World countries and some First World ones as well.
Major League Baseball's salary structure currently rewards players for performing well in the early part of their careers (i.e., the poorly paid parts) by paying them like royalty during the latter parts of their career (i.e., the late- and post-prime parts of their careers).
Any team that would reward Albert Pujols for his Hall of Fame seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals by making him the highest paid player in baseball during his twilight years would just be throwing away money.
Pujols played those seasons for the Cardinals, and as a baseball fan, I would prefer to see the Cardinals, and not any team I root for, throw away hundreds of millions of dollars rewarding him for that.
.png?w=480)
