West Ham United: Certain Relegation?

A friend and fellow West Ham fan texted me immediately following the Hammers’ dismal home loss to Aston Villa yesterday: “I think we just got relegated today.”

While I understand where he’s coming from, I disagree with this assessment. Taking West Ham’s three most recent performances – Villa, Bolton, Manchester United – solely into account, it’s hard to see the side having the proverbial snowball’s chance in hell of staying up.

Luckily, for West Ham and the Upton Park faithful, there are more variables in this equation than the Irons and their apparent lack of desire to win.

Those variables, the other teams engaged in the relegation battle, might well save the Hammers’ season.

Let’s look at it objectively. You’ve got 20 teams in the league, and three of them must go down. As of this writing, the bottom six teams in the table, counting from 20th place to 15th, are Wolves, West Ham, Blackpool, Wigan, Blackburn and Sunderland.

Three of those teams will be safe come the last day of the season.

Blackpool sealed its fate of certain relegation after a loss to Wigan yesterday. In the coming weeks, the Oranges face Newcastle, Stoke, Tottenham, Bolton and Manchester United.

That’s one team down.

Wolves face Fulham, Stoke, Birmingham, West Brom, Sunderland and Blackburn. Assuming the side loses to Fulham, Stoke, Birmingham and Blackburn and forces draws from West Brom and Sunderland, it finished with two more points than it has now.

Not enough to avoid relegation.

That’s two teams down.

In the coming weeks, West Ham faces Chelsea and Manchester City, both away. The Hammers will lose these games, no doubt. It will look certain, with only three matches remaining, that West Ham will go down.

However, the Hammers face Blackburn and Sunderland at home and Wigan away in its last three fixtures. A win over Blackburn gives the Hammers 35 points entering the Wigan match.

Assuming Sunderland pulls out a magical last-ditch effort and defeats Wigan at the Stadium of Light, the Latics enter the game against West Ham on 34 points.

A hard fought win against Wigan by West Ham, followed by against Sunderland at Upton Park, secures Wigan’s relegation – the other sides the Latics face in the last weeks of the season are Everton, Villa and Stoke.

That’s three teams down.

And West Ham is not one of them.

Further variables such as Sunderland’s abysmal form and Birmingham and Blackburn’s upcoming fixtures – the former faces Chelsea, Liverpool, Newcastle, Fulham and Tottenham, the latter, Manchester City, Manchester Untied and Bolton – also bode well for the Hammers. 

At this point, West Ham can still save its season, and comfortably avoid relegation.

However, it will require the coherence and burning desire to win the Hammers displayed against Liverpool and Stoke, not the confused and flaccid nonsense the team showed against Bolton and Villa, and poor results from the other teams in the fight.