Eric Davis: What Could Have Been

All this talk about the Hall of Fame has me thinking about the number of players who, for a variety of reasons (war, injury, racism, etc.) were denied what could have been hall of fame careers. Perhaps chief among these, is one of the most extraordinarily talented men to ever play the game: Eric Davis.

In his career over parts of 17 years, Davis was felled by a variety of bizarre and chronic ailments. He never exceeded 135 games played or 472 at bats, only surpassing 400 at bats 8 times.

     I have taken his career batting statistics and pasted them below (thanks to Baseball Prospectus).

     In 1986, Davis hit 27 home runs and stole 80 bases. The following season, in only 472 at bats (an eventual career high), he hit 37 home runs and stole 50 bases. He was 25 years old. At that point in his career, quite possibly the most exciting blend of speed and power in the history of baseball. Unfortunately, as stated above, injuries took a heavy toll; after the age of 28, Davis only exceeded 400 at bats 3 times, including years of 156, 158, 191, 267, and 285. 

Let's assume, because it is fun to do so, that Davis was not quite so severe injury plagued. We do not need to go overboard, but let's pretend he had averaged...485 at bats a season, and had not taken the year off for temporary retirement in '95. What would his career look like? Below, is his career line, adjusted to an average of 485 at bats over 15 years (I have kept his AB's in '84 and '85 low, as he received limited playing time due to youth, rather than injury).

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H-2019, D-339, T-40, HR-403, R-1279, RBI-1254, SB-502, K-1906, BB-1009

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Imagine now Davis was perfectly healthy, averaging a robust 519 at bats. What would his career look like then?

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H-2162, D-363, T-42, HR-431, R-1432, RBI- 1406, SB-537, K-2132, BB-1114

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Given that his peak was in the relatively low-scoring period of 1984-1990, and that he was, before his injuries, a phenomenal defensive outfielder, it is not hard to imagine him in the Hall of Fame today. This is especially the case since his numbers were depressed beyond just his total at bats, and had he not sufferred from...let's say...Colon Cancer for example, his stats would probably have been higher as well. 

According to BaseballProspectus.com, Davis, even in this aborted career, was worth roughly 70 Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP). Had he averaged 519 at bats per season, this number would be a much more impressive 107. With a few notable and controversial exceptions, every player above 100 WARP in their career is in the Hall of Fame (Jim Rice, for example, has 72...he has no business getting 72 percent of the vote). 

Again, just for fun, I am going to use BaseballReference.com, translate Davis's career totals into a environment, and then adjust for a healthy career. Had he played his career in a 750-run p/team environment, he would have the following career numbers:

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H-2250, D-377, T-42, HR-453, R-1508, RBI-1470, K-2160, BB-1160

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with a rate line of .274/.365/.493/.858

He may not have been overwhelming candidate, but he certainly seems more appealing than Rice, or Dawson. None of this really means anything, but it would have been really great to see what a healthy Eric Davis could have done.