New Orleans Saints 2011 Draft: Predicting the Depth Chart
One of the key factors in determining a team's needs prior to any draft is to look at the depth chart. This is true regardless of whether you believe in drafting by need or by best player available. We know it's especially true for the Saints since Sean Payton often talks about "having a vision for the player" when the team acquires anyone via the draft, free agency, trade, or during the season.
When push comes to shove, the team will always take a guy who has a chance to contribute right away before it will take a guy whom it deems a project unable to play for at least a year (with the exception perhaps of the quarterback position).
While I already wrote a team needs column last week, I find it important to note why I chose the positions I did. And the reasons why are really because of how I view the Saints' depth chart heading into the draft. These are merely my opinions and not facts taken straight from Sean Payton's brain (unfortunately, I don't possess such an ability or power).
Quarterbacks: 1. Drew Brees; 2. Chase Daniel
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Only a mafia-type move by the NFL where it blackmails the 10 players who filed grievances against the league by assassinating them would alter Brees' hold on the top spot of the Saints' depth chart. Of course even the most bitter Saints'-hater (if any exist at all), would not wish such a thing upon the organization.
The point is we know who the top guy at the position is, mainly because he's one of the top guys in the entire league and very definitely the most important member of the team.
Backup Chase Daniel has improved and even got to hand off a couple times at the end of a few games last season, in addition to his role as the holder on the field goal unit.
That being said, very few teams that have great starters also have good backups, so the Saints are hardly alone in the shock value that would find the team's psyche if Brees were to be seriously hurt.
As much as I love Daniel, the Saints are in pretty big trouble if anything ever does happen to Brees. Hopefully, the team can continue to develop Daniel and either last year's seventh-round project, Sean Canfield, or another rookie QB this year to prepare for the 0.00000000000001 percent chance the NFL takes my idea and runs with it.
Running Backs: 1a. Pierre Thomas; 1b. Reggie Bush; 2. Chris Ivory
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By signing Pierre Thomas to a four-year, $12 million deal prior to the lockout being executed by the NFL Owners, the Saints ensured their fans they were committed to a powerful, yet versatile running attack going forward.
Pierre runs with such low pad level that his size becomes irrelevant, and he becomes a human wrecking ball.
A season ago, rookie Chris Ivory showed some similar skills, making for a pretty powerful and physical combination of runners in the Saints' backfield.
With Reggie Bush continuing in his role as a Flex Back, the Saints look to be as deep at the running back spot as they have ever been.
Nonetheless, it wouldn't surprise me if the Saints took a serious look at a guy like Stanley Havili who played fullback and tailback at Southern California. For my money, he would provide the ultimate complement to an already loaded backfield.
If the Saints were to make such a decision, it would likely mean the end of Lynell Hamilton's tenure in New Orleans as the fourth back. If not, expect Hamilton to maintain a roster spot with his unique special teams talents and challenge for short-yardage and goal-line carries.
Fullbacks: 1. Dave Thomas
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In 2009, the Saints began employing Dave Thomas as the fullback in many of their two-back sets. In 2010, despite the return of Heath Evans, Thomas continued in this role.
I'm generally in favor of carrying a true, old school-type fullback. But Thomas performs the role adequately, and paired with a combo back like a Stanley Havili, the Saints could manipulate the position well enough that a true fullback may not be needed.
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Left Tackles: 1. Jermon Bushrod; 2. Charles Brown; 3. Zach Strief
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The Saints won the Super Bowl with Bushrod, and then proceeded to trade away former Pro Bowl LT Jamaal Brown after the big win, obviously feeling pretty comfortable with Bushrod's ability to protect their franchise player's backside.
Bushrod seemed to digress a bit in 2010, yet rookie Charles Brown never saw the field, implying either that Bushrod was not as poor as many fans believed him to be; or Brown simply wasn't ready.
Either way, Bushrod must enter the new season, whenever that happens to be, as the starter because of his experience.
Brown's talent is exciting to think about, but his lack of experience is enough to scare even the most confident coach.
In an emergency, Zach Strief is more than capable of filling in on the left side and performing well.
Left Guards: 1. Carl Nicks
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Nicks, the former sixth-round selection out of Nebraska, has developed into a consistent Pro Bowl performer for the Saints. Every draft expert knew the talent was there for Nicks, but many feared the maturity level was not.
The Saints took a wise chance that they could get him motivated and headed in the right direction. Nicks has been consistent on and off the field. While fellow guard Jahri Evans is considered by Sean Payton as the best guard in football, Nicks isn't too far behind.
Needless to say, if Nicks were to get hurt, the Saints would be in a bit of trouble.
That being said, Matt Tenant could fill in at either guard spot if needed.
Centers: 1. Jonathan Goodwin; 2. Matt Tenant
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Goodwin, despite his age becoming a factor, continues to play well for the Saints in the middle of the line.
Clearly the future at the position is the soon-to-be second-year player Tennant. Last year Tennant played some on special teams, along with Zach Strief, but rarely if ever saw the field on the offensive line.
That had everything to do with Goodwin's production and nothing to do with Tennant's professional progression. Expect Tennant to take over the top spot whenever Goodwin's current contract runs out.
Right Guards: 1. Jahri Evans; 2. Matt Tenant
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I wrote last spring when the Saints signed Evans to a long-term contract extension that it was the best move they made all offseason, and all but guaranteed the team would continue to maintain it's place among the elite offenses in the NFL.
One year later, my opinion hasn't changed a bit. No move was more integral to the short-term or long-term success of the club.
If Evans goes down, it would be the closest thing we'd see to a Brees injury in terms of the amount it would hurt the team. Evans is that good.
Sure he had a few more penalties this past season, but those things generally even out over time, especially when a guy is elite like Evans.
Tennant is never going to challenge Evans for this spot, and I think all involved are more than okay with that.
Right Tackles: 1. Jon Stinchcomb; 2. Zach Strief
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Jon Stinchcomb was re-signed in the offseason preceding the Super Bowl because he was a key to the Saints' future plans.
Now commentators such as Michael Lombardi, and others, are saying the Saints need a fix at the right tackle spot.
As much as that may be true, nothing is going to happen prior to the draft, therefore, by default, Stinchcomb remains the guy until further notice.
Zach Strief might be the best backup right tackle in the league, for what it's worth, in addition to being a valuable piece in the Saints Jumbo package.
Wide Receivers: Colston; Devery; Meachem; Adrian Arrington
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Marques Colston and Devery Henderson remain the starters, although to me, Meachem is equal with Devery and might as well be the starter.
Adrian Arrington came on strong at the end of the year, albeit in mop-up duty. Because of his youth and his contract, I give him the fourth spot heading into the draft; with no plans to re-sign Lance Moore assuming there is no restricted free agency in the new CBA.
Tight Ends: 1. Jimmy Graham; 2. Dave Thomas
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In case you thought Sean Payton was just blowing smoke when he stated that he thought Jimmy Graham could be one of the best value picks from the 2010 draft, the release of Jeremy Shockey should eliminate any doubt about how the Saints feel about Graham.
If Graham had started 2010 the way he ended it, he would have been a serious contender for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. For a kid who only had one year of experience at the college level to come on so quickly as a pro shows he has the potential to do amazing things with Drew Brees throwing him the ball.
Dave Thomas will continue in his role as the H-Back in the Saints' 12 personnel package.
If I am correct in my assessment that Thomas gets the majority of the fullback snaps, then the Saints need to find a guy they are comfortable with as the third tight end.
Returners: Kick: Pierre Thomas; Punt: Reggie Bush
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Heading into the draft, one must assume Pierre Thomas is the leading man to return kicks for the Saints next season, while Reggie Bush looks to reprise his role as an elite punt returner.
That being said, with one of my draft picks I would look to draft a skill player who is an elite returner. Ideally, this would be a wide receiver such as San Diego State's Vincent Brown.
Left Defensive End: 1. Alex Brown; 2. Junior Galette
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Defensive Ends who don't rush the passer at an elite level are pretty much a dime a dozen. Therefore, if the Saints are able to secure a good pass-rushing defensive end in the draft they should do so.
That being said, Brown does effectively what many good pass rushers don't—hold the point of attack against the run. Because of that Brown should remain the starter until that elite pass rusher is ready to be an every down player.
Junior Galette had a nice camp last summer and with a year under his belt should begin to challenge for some snaps as well.
Jimmy Wilkerson is getting old and does nothing that Junior Galette cannot do.
Defensive Tackles: Sedrick Ellis & Shaun Rogers; Anthony Hargrove & Remi Ayodele
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With the pre-lockout signing of Shaun Rogers, the Saints made a statement they weren't willing to wait around for help in gaining an advantage in the interior of their defense. It apparently was priority No. 1.
Rogers can step right in and play the nose tackle spot, which he has done very effectively both in Detroit in a 4-3 scheme, and in Cleveland in a 3-4 scheme. Because of his experience, Rogers brings Gregg Williams some scheme versatility that was previously missing with the other interior defensive linemen.
Rogers' arrival should help Sedrick Ellis do what he does best—shoot gaps and penetrate. Rogers should make Ellis a much more effective player.
This move also frees up Anthony Hargrove to come in and play some 3-4 end or give his best for approximately 20 snaps a game.
And appropriately Remi Ayodele goes from occasional starter to beyond adequate backup.
Right Defensive End: 1. Will Smith; 2. Jeff Charleston
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Will Smith has been a very consistent defensive end in his entire time as a Saint. However, it appears he will finally have to serve his four-game suspension from the StarCaps suit that hit in 2008.
Jeff Charleston is a good backup, who for 20-25 snaps can go full bore and wear down a left tackle. But he's not the overall player that Smith is, lacking the strength and ability hold the point of attack against the run.
OLB: Scott Shanle & Jonathan Casillas; Jo-Lonn Dunbar & Stanley Arnoux
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Scott Shanle is one of those guys who isn't the most talented, and under most circumstances, wouldn't even be a starter, yet you just can't find someone better. There's no shame in being this kind of guy.
On the other side of Jonathan Vilma, the Saints have a lot of options, but I have to believe they want to get younger. Jonathan Casillas was starting at that spot until an injury finished his season. Unfortunately, Casiallas has faced having his season end that way twice now in two years. If he can ever get healthy though, Casillas has the ability to be a very good outside linebacker in Gregg Williams' scheme.
If I'm the Saints I want to stay young in the backup spots as well. Jo-Lonn Dunbar has impressed me when he's been on the field at linebacker. And Stanley Arnoux is a guy who was underrated coming out of Wake Forest but still possesses the ability to play a major role going forward for the Saints.
Middle Linebacker: 1. Jonathan Vilma; 2. Marvin Mitchell
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Vilma is a multiple-time Pro Bowler and the unquestioned leader of the Saints defense. Without him, the Saints struggle mightily to even get lined up and in the correct defense. Saying that fails to mention Vilma is the team's best tackler and great in coverage, and let's not forget his ability to rush the passer.
Marvin Mitchell is an elite special teams player and an adequate middle linebacker, but nowhere near the player that Vilma is. Then again, very few starting middle linebackers in the league compare to Vilma, so that really is no indictment on Mitchell.
Free Safety: 1. Malcolm Jenkins; 2. Usama Young
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We saw how much the Saints struggled without Jenkins in the sad playoff loss January 6th versus Seattle. Jenkins made key play after key play in his inaugural season starting at free safety.
Personally, I think Jenkins needs to be lined up at corner more often and sent on a blitz from the slot even more often, but Jenkins does possess elite coverage skills for the safety position.
Usama Young is another converted corner, but his talent level really doesn't match Jenkins'. If Jenkins goes down this year, the Saints will be in some pretty big trouble.
Strong Safety: 1. Roman Harper; Drafted Rookie
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Harper has to be the key target for the Saints once players can be re-signed. Without Harper the Saints are going to be in deep trouble in the running game. With Harper, they have an elite blitzer and run stopper.
The Saints need to draft somebody to back him up as the current options are not real enticing.
Cornerbacks: Jabari Greer & Tracy Porter; Randall Gay & Pat Robinson
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In 2010, Tracy Porter stepped up to become New Orleans' most consistent cornerback. This came a year after that title belonged to fellow starter Jabari Greer. Either way the duo has to be among the top-five duos in all of football.
Jabari is a bit more of a lock down man-to-man defender, while Tracy is a more aggressive playmaker. Together, quarterbacks across the league have to be careful with the football when targeting a wide receiver.
Randall Gay—if healthy—remains one of the better nickel corners in the entire NFL. The Saints, I'm sure, would love to have him return to health and the lineup in 2011. Of course, the Saints will generally play Malcolm Jenkins over the slot receiver in nickel situations, but a healthy Gay would give Gregg Williams' more options, meaning some more exotic concepts.
Patrick Robinson isn't a bad fourth corner, but if he is forced into the starting lineup, as he was a season ago in one or two games, the Saints are in trouble. So far, Robinson hasn't shown himself to be anything more than a special teams player. He needs to make major strides if he is going to challenge for significant playing time on defense.
Specialists: K Garrett Hartley; P Thomas Morstead; LS Jason Kyle
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Despite Hartley's struggles in 2010, the Saints are obviously comfortable moving forward with Hartley as their kicker. If they weren't, they would have made the move in 2010.
Thomas Morstead has been outstanding in his first two seasons as a professional and seems headed for a possible Pro Bowl career, especially in the weaker punting conference—the NFC.
After struggling to find a long snapper for much of last season, the Saints hope Jason Kyle will be healthy and back to his reliable form.
All in all, the Saints seem to be set and in okay shape with the specialists positions.
What Now?
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The reality of the situation in the NFL is that things could be totally different with a new collective bargaining agreement. Roman Harper may not be signable, or re-signing Lance Moore may be possible.
Whatever happens, we can be assured the team is actively pursuing younger and more talented players than are currently on the roster through the draft, college free agency, and free agency—if that ever takes place.
No matter who the team acquires between now and the beginning of next season, this two-deep roster seems to be among the elite of the NFL. With any luck and health, the Saints are well-equipped to make another run at the Lombardi Trophy.
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