2011 NFL Mock Draft: 7 Round Detroit Lions Projections
Alright, Detroit Lions fans, no gimmicks this time.
No "Best-Case Scenario" draft, no "Worst Case Scenario" draft. Just good old-fashioned mock drafting, based on who's likely to be available and who fits the Lions' needs.
Now, I've done one of these already this off-season, so consider this to be the 2.0 version of my "true" Lions mock draft.
Since I'll probably be coming out with a couple more of these between now and draft day, I've set some ground rules for myself.
1. No repeating picks. If you've heard my analysis on a player once, you don't need it again. If that means I have to get creative with my selections, so be it.
2. No trades. I actually think the Lions will trade down somewhere, but it's just silly to assume to know when, where, and with who.
3. If there is any reasonable chance a player is a available at a particular Lions' pick, I will assume he is available. That's the only way I can reasonably simulate the Lions brain trust's "best player available" strategy. For them to draft the BPA means a talented player is going to have to fall from somewhere.
With those rules in place, here is version two of my 2011 Detroit Lions mock draft.
Round 1, 13th Overall Pick: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
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Da'Quan Bowers to the Lions is a trendy pick right now, and I can't resist jumping on it, even though I have serious questions about the guy.
I mean, looking at him here, he seems more likely to program your computer than sack your quarterback, but that's not the issue. The issue is what you don't see. Specifically, his right knee.
Reports conflict regarding the severity of Bowers' knee injury, but the word "microfracture" has been thrown around, and that's a frightening proposition for a guy coming out of college. He's already had arthroscopic knee surgery, and that was supposed to be all he needed. Then he tanked his Pro Day, and now the question is swirling: "Is his knee really healthy?"
If it's not, there may be a problem. Either way, there is considerable concern. Sure, plenty of guys come out of microfracture surgery just fine, and I have faith in one Gosder Cherilus to come back strong from it. But if Cherilus had these concerns before the 2008 draft, he probably wouldn't have been a first-round pick.
This is what makes the Bowers pick an intriguing one.
If it turns out Bowers is healthy, or that he gets through whatever procedure he needs with no trouble, the Lions just stole a top five player who is one of the most complete and dangerous 4-3 DE prospects in years. This is a guy who notched 15.5 sacks last season and is also dominant against the run.
If his knee becomes a major (career-ending?) problem, he's the first spectacular bust of the Martin Mayhew era.
That's why, if he's available at 13, we will learn a lot about Mayhew and Jim Schwartz. Are they willing to take risks for potential top-flight talent, or would they prefer a safe pick with a ceiling of "pretty good?"
Rest assured that Schwartz would delight in having a healthy Da'Quan Bowers on his roster. If there's two things Schwartz likes in his defense, it's having lots of talented defensive linemen and having them be versatile. He's probably fantasizing about having Bowers line up at tackle and Ndamukong Suh line up at end as we speak.
Round 2, 44th Overall Pick: Stefen Wisniewski, C/G, Penn State
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If you've read anything I've written about the 2011 draft, you know I'm diametrically opposed to drafting an offensive tackle in this year's draft, at least in the early rounds.
Part of the reason is the interior of the offensive line is a much greater and more immediate need, and Stefen Wisniewski addresses that need in a very big way.
Not only is Wisniewski one of the top interior OL prospects in the draft, he's also versatile enough to play multiple interior line positions. He has experience at both guard positions and center.
The Lions could use an immediate upgrade over Stephen Peterman at right guard, and an upgrade in the near future over Dominic Raiola at center.
The fact that Wisniewski is able to play both positions makes him that much more valuable. The fact is, the Lions need a bigger player in the middle of the offensive line, and Wisniewski outweighs Raiola by 20 pounds.
But Raiola isn't likely to be done yet, and he's not the weak link on the line. That dubious honor goes to Peterman, who is average on his best day, not great on a usual day and out injured on a bad day. Raiola might not be a great center, but at least he's reliable.
Peterman, on the other hand, has been in and out of the lineup since he arrived in the league, and 2010 marked the first time in his seven NFL seasons that he played a full 16 games. And he was still playing through injuries.
Ideally, Wisniewski, who played every year at right guard except for his junior year (he transitioned to center), could replace Peterman in the lineup immediately and play a season or two right next to his likely new mentor, Raiola.
Wisniewski is a smart kid and receptive to coaching. He plays with his head like Raiola does, but weighs about 20 more pounds. Raiola exhibits some of the best blocking technique in the league, and would be a perennial Pro Bowler if he were just a bit bigger.
See where I'm going with this?
Round 3, 75th Overall Pick: Curtis Brown, CB, Texas
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As you might gather from this picture, Curtis Brown is a phenomenal athlete.
The knock on Brown through his playing days at Texas, though, was that he was nothing more than a phenomenal athlete with good corner size (6' 0", 185 pounds) wearing a football helmet.
Brown's draft stock has perked up a bit because had a good enough combine to confirm his top-notch athleticism, and quelled some concerns regarding his football skills.
At the combine, he showed soft hands, natural hips in coverage and an ability to high-point the ball on interceptions (pictured).
What Brown struggles with is the ability to actually cover his man. He is athletic enough to stay with anybody, and his coverage skills have improved throughout his time at Texas, but like many Lions corners last year, Brown struggles to locate and make a play on the ball.
That makes Brown a bit of a project, but he's good value in the third round. Ball skills and coverage technique can be taught. A 40" vertical leap can't.
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Round 4, 107th Overall Pick: K. J. Wright, OLB, Mississippi State
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If you haven't looked into K. J. Wright, now might be a good time to start.
One would think that a player with Wright's build, ability and overall skills would be getting more press. Yet he seems to be flying under everyone's radar.
Granted, the linebackers who really draw the attention in the draft these days are the DE/OLB prospects who can rush the passer in a 3-4 defense. Wright isn't a sexy player like that, and there isn't anything he particularly excels at.
What he excels at is being one of the most well-rounded prospects in the draft. He lacks the explosive ability in any one area that would get him pulled off the board in the high rounds, but he has no major weaknesses, either.
Wright has a good size/speed balance, can lay a big hit or wrap up the ball carrier, plays with above-average instincts, is solid against the run and looks unnaturally comfortable and smooth in pass coverage.
All things considered, Wright's scouting report looks like that of a solid long-term starter, not a game-changing playmaker. But he has enough skill and athleticism to possibly break out with a little coaching.
Even if he doesn't, Wright is great value and could step in and be an immediate starter, which would be fantastic impact for a fourth-round selection.
Round 5, 154th Overall Pick: Alex Green, RB, Hawai'i
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The University of Hawaii has made a good living off of passing the football. They run a wide-open spread that has produced a number of NCAA record-breaking quarterbacks who go on to do nothing in the NFL.
Anyone remember Timmy Chang? I thought not.
What Hawaii stumbled upon this year, however, was something a little different. Alex Green gave the school its first 1,000 yard rusher in almost two decades, and he did it with the second-highest yards-per-carry average in the country.
At 6' 0", 225 pounds, Green isn't a true bruiser, but he runs like one. His strength is running between the tackles, which makes him an attractive alternative to the speedy, shifty Jahvid Best.
It's running backs like Green that make Mark Ingram a waste of a pick for the Lions, by the way. Green has the size, speed, and skill to step in and have an immediate impact as a backfield counterbalance for Best, and he isn't likely to cost more than a middle-round pick.
That being said, Green's stock is on the rise, so he may actually be more likely to be Detroit's fourth-round pick if they get him at all. But there's no doubt the Lions are interested; they've reportedly already scheduled to fly him in from the islands for a visit.
Round 7, 205th Overall Pick: Stephen Burton, WR, West Texas A&M
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I have my doubts about the Lions taking wide receivers in the seventh round for two straight years.
But then, I have my doubts about Stephen Burton being on the board in the seventh round, as well. He was initially considered by many to be an undrafted free agent worth taking a flier on. But that was before he went to the NFL combine and showed off—among other interesting measurables—one of the fastest 10-yard splits in the entire draft class.
Burton's strengths are simultaneously the reasons the Lions may, and may not, be interested in him.
Put more simply, his quickness, agility and hands make him an attractive slot receiver project, which is good.
But that's also what the Lions thought they were getting last year with Mr. Irrelevant, Tim Toone, which is bad.
The Lions taking a shot on Burton would basically be an admission that they're not confident they have anything in Toone. But Toone spent a good portion of last year injured, so that might be a difficult determination for the Lions to make after only one year.
Still, the Lions need a third receiver like light needs a third primary color, and at this point in the draft, they're likely to take a shot on anyone with upside.
Burton's impressive (for an FCS school receiver) combine puts him on the draft board as a potential late-round prospect, but whether he figures in as a future Lion will depend on how the front office feels about Toone and, to an extent, Derrick Williams.
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