2011 NFL Draft: How Cam Newton Compares to Tim Tebow

When the long process began leading up to the 2011 NFL Draft, I strongly believed that Cam Newton was going to be a bust in the NFL. Part of that, I'm ashamed to say, is because of my dislike for Auburn Tigers football.

I didn't think Newton's style of play would translate well to the NFL. When his "entertainer and an icon" comments came out, it merely confirmed my suspicions about his character. A player with a game ill-suited to the NFL and with character concerns has no business being drafted in the top 10.

But that's changed for me over the last few weeks.

The final straw was when I watched this clip from ESPN's First Take when they compared the criticisms of Cam Newton to the criticism Tim Tebow faced last year. I realized how relevant that comparison was in the discussion about Cam Newton's potential. Tim Tebow's college career and first year in the NFL can shed a great deal of light on Newton's pro future.

How They Are Similar

Newton and Tebow both accomplished a great deal in their respective college careers. They each won a national championship and a Heisman trophy. The national championships speak to their capabilities as leaders.

They both ran a spread offense in college. It's not a very complex system, but it allowed Florida's and Auburn's teams to take advantage of their ability to both run and pass. The transition from a spread offense to a pro system is not an easy one. Quarterbacks have to learn how to take snaps under center and they are called upon to make more challenging reads.

Also, they have similar builds. At 6'3" and around 250 pounds, Newton and Tebow are built more like linebackers than quarterbacks. They are incredibly difficult to stop running the ball in short-yardage situations as they are bigger than most running backs. This ability allowed Tebow to get on the field earlier in the year in goal-line sets.

As Denver struggled on the field last year, Tebow got some starting experience at the end of the year. He clearly needs to work on accuracy and reading the field as he only completed half of his passes. Tebow did showcase his ability to run the ball by averaging over five yards per carry and scoring on a 40-yard touchdown run.

I think Tebow did as good a job of transitioning to an NFL offense as can be reasonably expected in one year. 

How They Are Different

Tim Tebow is a model for good character in a football player. There are very few college football players who are as active in the community as Tebow was. Tebow's devout Christianity is also well known (see Tebow Rule). His pledge after a loss to Ole Miss has already been immortalized in Gator football history. There were absolutely no character concerns when he was drafted.

Unlike Tebow, Newton's character has been called into question repeatedly. 

When he was at the University of Florida, he was found to be in the possession of a stolen laptop and faced accusations of academic dishonesty. At Auburn, he was embroiled in his father's pay-for-play scandal. In the pre-draft process, he shot himself in the foot with the "entertainer and an icon" statement. Other people have questioned his sincerity.

I don't know Newton well enough to say anything about his sincerity, but objectively speaking there is cause for concern. Newton may get himself into trouble in the future when dealing with the fame and money that comes with being an NFL player.

The NFL team that drafts him will have to take that risk.

Since I've made the effort to be more objective regarding Newton, I have noticed several positive signs about his character. He is a leader. He took two different teams to national championship games (albeit one at the junior college level) and won both. He's dragged his receivers outside to practice in the rain on off weekends. More recently, he made comments about how he plans to lead by example in the NFL.

I'm not questioning his desire to succeed anymore.

Besides character, Newton has a different skill set compared to Tebow's. Newton is a much more dynamic runner. He ran a 4.5 in the 40-yard dash. Plus, he can make plays like this. Newton also has a stronger arm. He can rifle the ball into tight places.

Newton is a much better athlete than Tebow.

Conclusions

I now believe that Newton will be able to contribute right away in specific situations. He could be an effective quarterback in a Wildcat-type package, but I think his real contribution will be in short yardage situations. No one is going to stop Newton from gaining a yard or two on a quarterback sneak.

The question that remains is this: Will he ever become more than a gimmick player?

That will largely depend on his ability to read NFL defenses. It's hard to assess how well he will develop that ability. GMs and coaches will have gotten a better idea of that by sitting down with Newton. The only thing I can really point to there is the Wonderlic—Newton scored a 21 compared to Tebow's 22.

Take that for what you will.

The other crucial factor for Newton's NFL success is his accuracy. Newton did struggle with that at the combine, but he was throwing to unfamiliar receivers at the time. He completed over 65 percent of his throws at Auburn this year, so I believe that his poor combine showing has been over-emphasized.

What it comes down to is this: Newton is a boom-or-bust prospect. He has a higher ceiling than Tebow because of his athleticism. But his floor is also lower because of the character concerns.

His potential will get him drafted in the top five. Fans of the team that drafts him will just have to pray he reaches that potential.