2011 NBA Draft and the UNC Tar Heels Example: Zeller, Henson Stay, Barnes May Go

Tyler Zeller and John Henson announced yesterday that they will stay in school for another year. Harrison Barnes, however, will take longer to decide. Perhaps another two weeks.

The dance that occurs every year following the Big Dance is neither closely considered or watched except for the players and their families. The skill of a college basketball coach in negotiating the labyrinth of NBA teams and their interest in college players under their care, however, is a key recruiting tool in determining what school a player and his family picks when entering college. The best coaches in college must win. But they must also be able to determine whether their players hold a winning hand, and how much more a bit more seasoning will bring to the college player if he plays for another year in college before turning pro.

There are innumerable subsidiary issues that come with this question. For example, is the coach accurate? How do former players feel the coach did in making predictions? Will the player be properly insured against a career-threatening injury before he goes pro? 

But there are two additional questions that a high school player must ask before entering college. Can the coach be trusted to provide accurate information and proper advice without regard to the coach's own interest in keeping the player in college another year or more? And, does the player really want to complete a college education?

In some years, like this one, the status of the NBA's collective bargaining contract is also an important consideration.

Finally, and perhaps more critical than any other, where the player would be drafted. The judgment on this one relies entirely on the coach's own judgment and specific information gained through conversations with NBA teams.

Although every draft in professional sports proceeds with about the same criteria, the salaries for rookies differ dramatically than experienced players. Although headroom does exist for imaginative lawyers and agents, few rookies can expect anything better than the fixed salaries available today. Caps may differ from sport to sport, but the NBA's Rookie Scale limiting rookie salaries is fixed on paper.

The current first year Rookie Scale in thousands is as follows:(1) 3,617.1; (2) 3,236.3; (3) 2,906.2; (4) 2,620.2; (5) 2,372.8; (6) 2,155.1; (7) 1,967.4; (8) 1,802.4; (9) 1,656.8; (10) 1,573.9.

As can be seen, the differences between the top three picks are dramatic, but much less so than between these players and seven through 10.

If we can take Zeller and Henson at their words, it is not likely that either would have gone in the top 10 in the draft, although there is a greater prospect that Zeller might have latched on somewhere around the 10th pick.

Harrison Barnes, however, is an entirely different matter. His skills are obvious, with the only question if that could make his stock greater this year than next. Could his stock go lower next year if he does not perform at the same level?

An almost certain top-5 pick this year, the prospects for Barnes may be lower next year, and his fit on the court is different in many ways than some of the more pure forwards.

For these reasons, Barnes is 50-50 to enter the draft on these more material criteria.

Another aspect of Barnes' makeup is currently in play. With Zeller and Henson returning, another year would return UNC's Tar Heels starting five for another run at the NCAA title. Assuming Barnes remains interested in this, there is a 90-10 chance that Barnes will return based on this alone.

For these reasons, the decision by Barnes and his family is very difficult indeed.

My take, based on past statements made by Barnes and his high school coach, is that Barnes will return. His stock is almost certain to go up, and he could be the No. 1 pick next year with a much better supporting cast.