NFL Draft 2011: The 10 Biggest Potential Boom or Bust Picks
The NFL Draft is all about projection. These players are drafted (or at least they should be) based on what a team thinks the player will become.
Plenty of these players have very high ceilings, but while some of them have low floors, others have the potential to get stuck in the basement.
We call those guys "boom or bust" picks. Whether they're workout warriors like Vernon Gholston, guys with maturity issues like Randy Moss, or any number of other guys who have been labeled as such, these guys have the potential to be studs (Moss) or duds (Gholston).
Here are the big ones to watch out for in the 2011 NFL Draft.
Follow Erik Frenz on Twitter @e_frenz.
Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado
1 of 10
Smith has seen his draft stock plummet in recent weeks. He was once thought to be a consensus late-first round guy, despite what was thought to be just one underage drinking violation in Colorado. But according to reports from the Denver Post, that number could be a bit higher than first estimated. And it also includes a positive drug test back in 2007.
But hey, we were all kids once, and we've all made our fair share of mistakes. Jimmy Smith certainly has the athleticism to warrant a first-round pick, but he'll need to convince teams that all those transgressions are behind him and that he's ready to become a man in the NFL.
Phil Taylor, DT Baylor
2 of 10
The "intangibles" section of Phil Taylor's scouting report on ESPN's Scouts, Inc. reads like an autobiography of a guy who will be dropping into the second round. He was involved in an on-campus fight in 2008 while with Penn State. Charges were pressed, but later dropped, and ultimately he transferred to Baylor.
Mix in some questions about his overall work ethic (staying in shape, studying, etc.) and we have a perfect cocktail for a guy who has all the potential in the world, that may never be realized.
Yes, Taylor is a physical freak, especially for his size. A 346-pound guy should not be as light on his feet as Taylor, but the potential is there for him to make a big-time impact early on. Still, he'll need to prove to scouts and coaches that he's not the Jamarcus Russell of defensive tackles.
Da'Quan Bowers, DE Clemson
3 of 10
With just one highly productive season of 15.5 sacks, Bowers would already be considered a guy with major boom-or-bust potential. NFL coaches and GMs have obvious reservations about drafting a guy with a high pick who didn't produce over the length of a collegiate career.
Throw in a few solid question marks about his knee following arthroscopic knee surgery and his subsequent struggles at his Pro Day, and we have a guy who went from a potential top-5 pick to a potential slide into the bottom of the first round.
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Nick Fairley, DT Auburn
4 of 10
As with many of the guys on this list, Nick Fairley has questions about his character and work ethic that are just impossible to ignore. Fairley has the potential to make an Albert Haynesworth pre-meltdown type of impact from the defensive tackle position, but what good is that potential if it's never realized?
We are all well aware of his temper, too. He doesn't keep a cool head on the field, and has become known as a "cheap shot artist". What good is a 6-yard sack or a tackle behind the line of scrimmage if he gives up 15 yards on a personal foul in the very next breath?
And there's also that whole thing about being a one-year wonder. Of course, that one year was more productive than both of Marcel Dareus' combined years, but teams would like to see production over a period of time before spending a high pick on a guy with character concerns.
Ryan Mallett, QB Arkansas
5 of 10
From ESPN's Scouts, Inc: "Concerns regarding immaturity. Scouts have raised questions about his him as a teammate. Was arrested in early March of 2009 for public intoxication." Not exactly what you want to hear about a guy who could be leading your franchise into the next generation.
Oh, and there's the whole issue with drug addiction, too, as reported by several media outlets.
Great arm strength, solid accuracy, and questionable character mean boom-or-bust for Mallett.
Brooks Reed, DE Arizona
6 of 10
A fast riser in the 2011 NFL Draft, Reed continues to draw questions about where he fits best in the NFL. Would he make a good 4-3 defensive end, or does he transition better to 3-4 outside linebacker.
If the former, can he hold his own rushing against NFL-sized offensive tackles every down? If the latter, can he make the plays in space?
He made a lot of his plays on effort in college, and could flame out if he's getting beaten down every snap. There are also questions surrounding whether he is a "workout warrior" by the estimation of National Football Post's Wes Bunting.
Still, there will be a team that needs a pass rusher badly enough to take the chance on Reed. Whether that happens at the end of the first round or the beginning of the second remains to be seen.
Marvin Austin, DT North Carolina
7 of 10
With questions about his work ethic and maturity, many wonder if the leap from college to pro will be too much for Austin to handle. He has shown character flaws throughout college, and after riding the bench two games in 2009 on a coach's decision, he was suspended by the NCAA for the entire 2010 season for receiving improper benefits.
He has the explosion to warrant first-round consideration, and could certainly wreak havoc in the trench, What good is any of it if he doesn't stay motivated, grow up, and do all the little things to become a success in the NFL?
No good whatsoever.
Jake Locker, QB Washington
8 of 10
From the consensus first overall pick in 2010, to a boom-or-bust in 2011. Jake Locker is proof positive of why collegiate quarterbacks should always come out if given the opportunity.
Even after looking very impressive at the Scouting Combine, there are still several questions surrounding Locker's transition to the NFL.
After spending his collegiate career in an option-heavy offense at Washington, can he grasp a pro-style offense? What about his accuracy; we know it won't get much better, it never does, but will it hinder him in the NFL?
These are questions scouts will have to find answers to, and something tells me at least a few teams will see the red flags and will stay away entirely.
Justin Houston, DE Georgia
9 of 10
Any guy who gives questionable effort in certain situations is going to be considered a boom-or-bust pick. Houston is definitely one of those guys, as he frequently kicks it into low gear on running downs only to suddenly show up when the blitz is on.
Still, the threat he poses as a pure pass-rusher will make him an asset to some team that will be more than willing to take the risk. This holds especially true if he starts to fall, in which case we may see a certain team trade up to take him.
If that team does so, they'd better be sure they know what they're getting.
Cam Newton, QB Auburn
10 of 10
You knew this was coming.
From the character concerns to questions about his dedication to football to the omnipresent question of college quarterbacks ("can he transition from a college style offense to a pro-style offense?"), Cam Newton comes with more flags than the United Nations.
As usual, some team will see his athleticism, arm, and charm, and will be willing to spend a top-five pick on the Auburn product. Anytime a player has the name "Jamarcus Russell" uttered in the same breath as his own, NFL teams should be very afraid.
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