2011 NFL Draft: 15 Boom or Bust Prospects Who Could Fall Come Draft Day
Look Out Below!: Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett Headline Prospects Who Could Fall in the 2011 NFL Draft
To be fair, there has never been a "perfect" prospect. Risk is involved for every player in every draft, but the goal of NFL general managers is to sort through those problems and find the best fit for their respective team.
Like there are no perfect prospects, there are also no perfect general managers. Year after year, talent evaluators make mistakes and players become busts.
However, the majority of GMs can identify players with that bust potential and those prospects tend to fall down boards. With the NFL draft slowly creeping up on us, most of those players have been identified.
Let's break down the 15 players with the biggest boom or bust potential who could slip in the draft.
QB: Jake Locker, Washington
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With his athleticism and ability to throw on the run, some have compared Washington quarterback Jake Locker to the Packers' Aaron Rodgers.
While those comparisons hold some weight, the similarities just about end there.
Locker struggles with his accuracy in the pocket, and too many times at UW he took off after identifying his first target was covered. Part of that was the talent around him, but Locker has some big adjustments to make once in the NFL.
It's possible that a quarterback needy team—and there are several—will take a chance on Locker early in this draft, but it's equally probable that Locker could plummet come draft day with all the question marks surrounding him.
QB: Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
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Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett has the best arm in the draft and can throw the football about as well as anyone could hope for coming out of college.
Those qualities could land him in the first round, but he also has some serious red flags that could drop him in a hurry.
Mallett is a statue in the pocket, and he might be among the worst athletes at that position in the draft.
That alone isn't a killer, but coupling it with his questionable decision-making and character concerns stemming from past drug abuse is enough to take him off your board completely.
He probably won't escape the first 40 to 50 picks, but there are plenty of reasons why he potentially should.
RB: Mark Ingram, Alabama
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Alabama running back Mark Ingram is one of the more polarizing prospects in this draft class. Some think he is the prototypical back, while others think he could slip a long way down the board.
Either way, there are some real concerns about the former Heisman Trophy winner.
Maybe the most pressing of those concerns is the recent reports that Ingram's knee could have an arthritic condition. At a position so wealthy in second round and later talent, the risk of taking a player with an injured wheel might not be worth it.
Also, if Ingram doesn't go No. 15 to the Miami Dolphins, where does he fit? Teams might be inclined to wait out the running back position until later in the draft.
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RB: Daniel Thomas, Kansas State
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In a lot of ways, Kansas State running back Daniel Thomas has many traits you'd want in an NFL running back.
He's got good size (6'2", 225 pounds), runs a decent number (4.55 40) and displays good vision and physicality for the position.
However, he has some traits that could really be turning points for where he is drafted this month.
Thomas fumbled the ball 12 times in his career, including seven this past year, and many aren't convinced he has the short-area quickness to be an NFL starter.
While probably a second day (second to third round) talent, those red flags might drop him into the later rounds.
WR: Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburgh
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On paper, Pitt receiver Jonathan Baldwin is everything you want at that position. He's big (6'4"), wide (225 pounds) and has good straight-line speed (4.50 40-yard dash) for his size.
The NFL isn't played on paper, however, and that doesn't benefit Baldwin. He rarely plays as fast as he's been timed, and that could cause him to struggle with separation at the next level.
Baldwin also has some run-ins with the law, and he threw his coaching staff under the bus at the end of last season after he thought they were sabotaging his draft stock.
The talent is there on paper for Baldwin, but his problems both on and off the field might cause him to be drafted later than his scouting report might suggest.
TE: Jordan Cameron, USC
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The NFL is a copy cat league, and the recent rise of basketball-players-turned-NFL-tight-ends has given value to players who maybe wouldn't have in a different era.
USC tight end Jordan Cameron is one of those players. After playing basketball for a couple years, Cameron decided to give football a try and made the team at one of the better programs in the nation at USC.
He's got a big frame (6'5", 245 pounds) and can beat anyone down the seam vertically, but Cameron only caught 16 passes during his football career.
He also never started for the Trojans, and GMs could be turned off from a potential second-to-third round pick who didn't start in college.
OT: Nate Solder, Colorado
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It's pretty easy to understand why some have fallen in love with Colorado tackle Nate Solder. At 6'8", 315 pounds, Solder is a fantastic athlete and an imposing physical presence.
However, the likely first-round pick doesn't come without some concerns about his game.
Solder should have been able to dominate players with his frame and long arms, but that wasn't always the case. There are also significant worries about him lining up opposite both speed and power rushers at the next level.
In a tackle class that should see five first-round picks, Solder is probably the riskiest of the bunch and could see his name drop farther than many expect.
OG: Danny Watkins, Baylor
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It's hard to fault a player for something that is currently out of his control but, the fact is, Danny Watkins' age will cause him to fall despite his talent at the position.
Their is very little question about said talent, however.
He's as good as FSU's Rodney Hudson at the guard position, and his potential to get better with coaching early on makes him an attractive option.
Even so, being 26-years-old during his rookie season will surely hurt his stock in the draft. There's no way to look around the four to five years he's lost out on in his NFL career.
DE: Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson
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Like so many players on this list, the talent is obviously there for Clemson defensive end Da'Quan Bowers.
He's strong in the upper body and has tremendous closing speed when he sets his sights on the quarterback.
However, a much shakier wheel than what plagues Mark Ingram could destroy Bowers' stock. He had surgery on his knee after the season to fix an injury he suffered during the year, but some teams think that injury is worse than originally thought.
If those health concerns aren't cleared up before draft day, Bowers could drop farther than any prospect on this list.
DT: Lawrence Guy, Arizona State
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Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley might be a better option for this spot, but I don't think he's going to fall too far based on his numerous red flags.
Instead, Arizona State's Lawrence Guy is going to be the big faller of the group.
At 6'5", 300 pounds, Guy is a surprisingly good athlete who can play in a 3-4 or 4-3 defense. However, National Football Post claims, "Talking with scouts around the league there is a growing concern about his attitude and overall character, which could cause him to fall a lot further than his talent would warrant."
Guy is a second-round talent who will likely fall a couple of rounds because of these worries that NFP points out.
OLB: Dontay Moch, Nevada
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In terms of boom or bust prospects, Nevada defensive end/linebacker Dontay Moch has to rank high on that list.
On one hand, he's a tremendous athlete and ran a 4.44-second 40 at the NFL combine. The physical traits are all there for Moch.
On the other hand, however, Moch is still an in between prospect and will be a raw pass rusher coming into the NFL. At his size (250 pounds), does he play defensive end? Can he be a full-time linebacker?
Those questions will likely cause Moch to fall out of the first two rounds.
ILB: Martez Wilson, Illinois
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Like Moch, Illinois linebacker Martez Wilson is another 'tweener, but in a different way.
While he primarily played inside linebacker during his time in Champagne, his pass rushing skills and lack of size might force him to play outside in a 4-3 or 3-4 defense.
For a guy that warrants a first round or early second round grade, do you take the risk of converting him over?
Teams in need of a rush linebacker at the end of the first and beginning of the second will have to ask themselves that question.
CB: Jimmy Smith, Colorado
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Colorado cornerback Jimmy Smith ranks right up there with Mark Ingram as one of the more polarizing players.
When looking at his overall scouting report, plenty of things strike out at you: He's 6'2", 200 pounds—the perfect size for a corner. He's also fast, and has good ball skills—more important traits for a cornerback.
However, digging a little deeper brings out more truths about Smith. He failed a drug test at Colorado, and one Denver Post writer went as far to say Smith "wants to be a celebrity more than he wants to be a good NFL cornerback."
That's a scary combination to deal with, and many teams could pass on Smith in the late first to second round because of it.
CB/S: Aaron Williams, Texas
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As we get closer and closer to draft day, more and more scouts are saying that Aaron Williams of Texas is more of a safety than a cornerback.
At 6'1", 195 pounds, Williams probably would make a fine transition from cornerback to safety.
However, just the fact that people are talking about that transition uncovers the underlying problem. Williams is stiff in the hips and has problems changing direction—the main reasons why he needs a new position.
If you truly needed a cornerback in the draft, would you rather take a flyer on Williams in the late first, early-second range, or wait until the middle rounds and find a more steady prospect? That question could drop Williams down boards.
S: Quinton Carter, Oklahoma
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In a class weak with safeties, Oklahoma's Quinton Carter is going to garner some mid-round interest.
He has good ball skills, and Carter is never afraid to get dirty playing the run game. The size is there as well (6'1", 200 pounds).
However, Carter lacks a few things important to playing safety at the next level. His range is limited, and he didn't do himself any favors with a lackluster showing at the combine.
Carter has the size and potential to be a second or third round pick, but those question marks about his ability to transfer over to the NFL game could drop him into the late-middle rounds.
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