Green Bay Packers 2011 Offseason: Mock Draft, Free Agents and Cuts
Playing On Repeat: Green Bay Packers Plan for the 2011 NFL Draft, Free Agency and Cuts
Like every other franchise in the NFL, the Green Bay Packers and their offseason have been locked out by the current labor situation. Only the draft is scheduled to go on like normal.
While negotiations for a new CBA are currently at a standstill, the optimist in me says that the two sides will come to an agreement before any football is lost.
Whether that comes before the draft (very unlikely) or in August (more likely), let's assume for sake of argument that a deal does come together. If that occurs, there will be an offseason in the NFL.
For the Packers, that means a lot of important decisions will need to be made in a shorter period of time.
Let's take a look at those decisions and what the Packers might do during the draft, free agency and trimming their roster.
Free Agents That Won't Be Re-Signed (Part 1)
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WR James Jones
Losing Jones won't be because the Packers don't want him back. They'll pursue re-signing him if the price is right.
However, that price won't ever materialize for the Packers. Jones wants to be a starting receiver in the NFL, and chances are a team like Chicago or Washington will pay him the money allocated to a starter.
DE Cullen Jenkins
If the Packers were ever serious about bringing Jenkins back, they would have made an effort towards the end of the season and after the Super Bowl.
No such attempt was made, and it seems clear that the Packers are comfortable giving Jenkins a shot at a big contract on the market.
He's 30 years old and has an injury history, but there will be teams lining up to give him money that the Packers can't dream of matching.
OG Daryn Colledge
GM Ted Thompson has never been one to give big contracts to guards, and that pattern doesn't change with Colledge.
Some love him and some hate him, but playing on a Super Bowl winning offensive line will inflate Colledge's value out of the range the Packers want to pay him.
OL Jason Spitz
After nosediving down the Packers depth chart, it's almost hard to believe that Spitz started 41 games for Green Bay from 2006-08.
That kind of experience, when mixed with his versatility on the offensive line, still gives him some value. The Packers have given Spitz plenty of time, however, and he'll be a backup on some other team next year.
Free Agents That Won't Be Re-Signed (Part 2)
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S Atari Bigby
Non-stop injuries have made Bigby a shell of his former self. Even when healthy last season, he hardly ever saw the field is nothing more than a special teamer on this Packers roster.
He'll find a team that will give him slightly more money and a better opportunity for playing time in the defensive secondary.
S Anthony Smith
Re-acquired from the Jaguars during the season, Smith played sparingly and mostly on special teams after coming back to Green Bay.
He wouldn't require much to bring back, but I don't think the Packers will give him a third chance after showing so little during his second run.
FB Korey Hall
A valuable special teams player with experience starting, Hall's inclusion on this list was the hardest for me to decide.
However, because they have so many players from both the IR and the upcoming draft to fit onto the roster, the Packers can no longer support the luxury of three fullbacks.
TE Spencer Havner
He has the versatility that Green Bay likes, but Havner's health has been the big question over the past year.
Over that time, Tom Crabtree has jumped him on the depth chart, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers' draft another tight end in the later rounds.
Free Agents That Won't Be Re-Signed (Part 3)
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CB Josh Bell
Don't know the name? That's understandable.
The only tangible contribution Bell has given the Packers over the past two years was giving up the last-second touchdown pass to Mike Wallace in their '09 loss to the Steelers. After battling injuries over the past two seasons, he won't be brought back.
LB Matt Wilhelm
While he brought experience in a 3-4 defense to an injured linebacking group last season, Wilhelm is 30 years old and nothing more than a special teamer at this point.
With talent returning from the IR, there's no chance Wilhelm would make this roster next season.
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Free Agents That Will Be Re-Signed
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RB Brandon Jackson
Like James Jones, Jackson wants to be a starter in the NFL. However, Jackson won't find the same support from the other 31 teams that Jones is sure to get.
Once he finds out that his value is highest in Green Bay as a third down back, he'll be happy to re-sign at a contract that is favorable for the Packers' bottom line.
FB John Kuhn
Packers fans love Kuhn for his toughness and versatility, but the reality is he isn't even a top 10 fullback in the NFL.
Kuhn has very little value out of Green Bay, and with all the support he gets from Packers fans, both at Lambeau and on the road, there's very little chance he's playing anywhere else next season.
K Mason Crosby
He's not the best kicker in the NFL or anywhere close, but bringing Crosby back is a more attractive option than restarting at that position.
Also, Crosby should be a bigger factor in limiting kick returns with the new kickoff rules in place next season.
WR Brett Swain (Restricted)
While he hasn't exactly shown he's ready for a bigger role in the Packers offense, Swain should get another shot at making the team this summer.
He'll be dirt cheap, can play special teams and could add competition to the bottom of the receiving depth chart.
Mock Draft: Rounds 1-3
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For a more detailed look at the Packers draft, read my seven-round mock.
First Round (No. 32): DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
The Packers are losing Cullen Jenkins, and injuries have followed fellow defensive ends Ryan Pickett, Mike Neal and Howard Green.
Thompson has drafted a defensive lineman in all six of his drafts, and Heyward is the perfect 5-technique for the Packers 3-4 defense.
Second Round (No. 64): OLB Sam Acho, Texas
While not the explosive rusher that Clay Matthews is, Acho would provide the Packers a consistent player opposite him.
However, I could also see Thompson moving up in the second round and grabbing a more talented rusher or offensive lineman that could start right away.
Third Round (No. 96): G/OT William Rackley, Lehigh
If Thompson decided against moving up, Rackley would be a solid constellation prize at the end of the third round.
While a raw prospect, Rackley has a high ceiling and could potentially play at either guard or tackle down the road.
Mock Draft: Rounds 4-7
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Fourth Round (No. 129): CB Cortez Allen, Citadel
Allen is a raw but talented cornerback who could ultimately develop into Charles Woodson's replacement.
Fourth Round (No. 131): WR Cecil Shorts III, Mount Union
If James Jones does leave, Shorts could provide some reprieve as a receiver and an explosive factor in the return game.
Fifth Round (No. 163): OT Derek Newton, Arkansas State
Another developmental project, Newton would need a season or two but could be the long-term answer at either offensive tackle position.
Sixth Round (No. 197): RB Graig Cooper, Miami
Even if Brandon Jackson is brought back, Cooper would have a chance to make this team as a returner and potentially a future third down back.
Seventh Round (No. 204): QB Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin
Mike McCarthy and quarterbacks coach Tom Clements love developing players at that position, and Tolzien could be their next project.
Seventh Round (No. 235): S Mark LeGree, Appalachian State
If the Packers lose both Atari Bigby and Anthony Smith, depth at the safety position might be lacking and LeGree is a sleeper in the later rounds.
Potential Cuts/Trades
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T Mark Tauscher
He'll turn 34 years old in June, and there's no way the Packers bring Tauscher back at his current contract ($4.1 million base salary, almost $600,000 in bonuses).
He would need to re-work that salary, but even then the Packers might not want the injury-prone offensive tackle back for the 2011 season.
LB Brady Poppinga
At this point, the Packers need to evaluate the future of Poppinga.
He'll be 32 during the 2011 season, and he's never been an impact or productive player during his six season in Green Bay.
LB Brandon Chillar
The potential cut of Chillar from the roster would depend a lot on the other transactions during the offseason.
However, his contract ($2 million in 2011, $5.7 million over 2012-13) and injury history could put his spot at risk.
LB Nick Barnett
Finally, the elephant in the room of the Packers offseason.
They have options (trade, release, keep) with Barnett, but the money involved—$5.5 million base salary plus over $600,000 in bonuses in 2011—almost guarantees that he will be on the move.
If a CBA is reached, Barnett could have some value. There are very few impact 3-4 inside linebackers in the 2011 draft.
Fighting for a Roster Spot
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DE Justin Harrell
The fact that the Packers didn't cut him when they did Donald Lee and Derrick Martin was a good sign for Harrell. He'll get another chance to make the team and contribute on the defensive line.
LB Diryal Briggs
Came aboard in late-October and was one of the Packers more effective special teamers. Briggs needs to show he has a potential future to play linebacker to make the team, however.
CB Brandon Underwood
The Packers have always been high on him, but the results have never came. Underwood's prostitution case puts him behind the eight ball to make this roster if Green Bay drafts a corner high.
RB Dmitri Nance
While he did everything the Packers asked him to do, Nance rarely showed any flashes of being an impact runner. He still should get an opportunity in camp to show he can make the team.
LB Robert Francois
He actually played snaps at outside linebacker when that position's depth hit rock bottom. Francois was also a good special teams player who should get a shot in camp.
CB Josh Gordy
Promoted from the practice squad for the last nine games, Gordy gained some acclaim among the Packers coaches. He needs to win the spot, but I'd say he has a decent chance at cracking the roster.
Summary
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In an offseason that will get a late start (or no start at all), the Super Bowl Champions have a lot of decisions to make.
Big name free agents James Jones and Cullen Jenkins will be the headline of the offseason, and, at this point, you'd have to assume both those players won't be back in Green Bay.
Nick Barnett's situation has to be addressed. It would be really hard for Thompson to justify spending nearly $15 million on three inside linebackers next season.
Also, reintegrating the players back from the IR could potentially mean some players who contributed to the Packers playoff run last season won't make the team.
However, these are good problems to have. The Packers have a deep and talented roster, and they'll be granted some wiggle room because of that.
And while it's unrealistic to think the Packers can replace both Jenkins and Jones next season, Thompson will surely draft players to help ease that transition.
Overall, Packers fans can rest easy this offseason no matter what happens.
As long as Thompson doesn't trade Aaron Rodgers or Clay Matthews between now and Week 1 of the 2011 season, there's no decision before him this offseason that could prevent this team from entering next year as one of the Super Bowl favorites.
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