NFL Draft 2011: Miami Dolphins' 8 Trade-Up Possibilities
The general consensus among Miami Dolphins fans is that the Dolphins will either stay at #15 or trade-down in order to pick-up a second round pick.
Well I would like to explore, much like the Dolphins front office will, the options of the Dolphins trading-up.
Even though some possibilities may not be likely, it is vital for every NFL team to explore all of its options. Yes, that may even include mortgaging its future (i.e. Mike Ditka trading his whole draft to get RB Ricky Williams).
Here are some possibilities for the Dolphins (all scenarios are independent of each other).
The Dolphins Trade Up to Draft QB Cam Newton
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What would the trade cost?
The Dolphins would have to move into the top five to be able to have a shot at Newton. Typically, to move up about 10 spots (especially into the top five picks) in the draft requires a swap of first-round picks, a second-round pick and a third or fourth-round pick.
The team's holding the top five picks realize any team wanting to trade up are probably looking for Newton or Blaine Gabbert. Therefore, the price could be even steeper for the Dolphins. The Dolphins would probably have to give up next year's first-round pick (since they do not have a second-round pick to trade).
Why they would make the trade?
The upside and the excitement.
Cam Newton has so much athletic ability and the potential to develop into a dynamic NFL QB. Acquiring Newton instantly pumps excitement into the Dolphins fanbase. Something that is greatly needed for a fanbase starving for some excitement.
The trade also addresses one of the Dolphins needs: the QB position.
Why they would not make the trade?
Too much risk.
Cam Newton has only had one year of real experience as a starting QB. Drafting on potential is a very risky endeavor. An endeavor the Dolphins probably cannot afford to fail at.
Realistic chance of happening:
Slim chance. It would probably take a miracle.
The Dolphins Trade Up to Draft QB Blaine Gabbert
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What would the trade cost?
Probably about the same as Newton. The rumors are that the Arizona Cardinals (who pick at No. 5) are hot on Gabbert's trail. Therefore, there would be high competition to trade up. It could end up costing two first-round picks and more to get up into the top four.
Why they would make the trade?
Gabbert is more proven as a QB than Newton. Gabbert is probably more NFL ready than Newton.
Just like trading up for Newton, drafting a QB always brings more excitement to the fanbase.
Why they would not make the trade?
Just like Newton, the cost is just way too high. The risk of going to get Gabbert is less than going to get Newton, but is Gabbert really worth giving up several high draft picks? If you ask Mel Kiper, he will tell you no (Kiper has Gabbert projected at 12).
Realistic chance of happening:
Slim chance. The price is just going to be too high. If he begins to slip (much like Aaron Rodgers did in 2005) then the price would go down and the Fins could sneak up to take him.
The Dolphins Trade Up to Draft WR Julio Jones
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What would the trade cost?
To get Jones the Dolphins would probably need to move up about four or five spots.
If they targeted the No. 10 pick (Washington) to get Jones, they would probably have to swap first-round picks, give up a third-round pick and probably could get a fourth or fifth-round pick back from Washington.
Why they would make the trade?
Jones has the potential to be a stud WR. Teaming him up with Brandon Marshall could make whoever is at QB look good. He played against top-notch competition in the SEC, so he is battle tested.
If Jones falls out of the top 10 and the Dolphins really like him then they would have to trade up to get him. The Rams pick at 14 and would love to have Jones to go with their QB Sam Bradford. The Fins would need to get ahead of them.
Why they would not make the trade?
A WR is not really a pressing need. The Dolphins could find a WR they need in the later rounds, so it would not be worth giving up picks to get Jones.
Realistic chance of happening:
Fair chance of happening. The trade itself is realistic for the Dolphins to do, but the need for a WR is not there.
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The Dolphins Trade Up to Draft DT Nick Fairley
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What would the trade cost?
The cost would be similar to Gabbert and Jones, as Fairley is projected to go around the end of the top 10. It could be less as Fairley's draft stock continues to fall. The Dolphins may only have to move up a couple spots if Fairley gets by the Tennessee Titans, who are the favorites to pick him at No. 8.
Why they would make the trade?
Fairley's physical gifts are undeniable. He is over 300 pounds with quick feet and hands. There were numerous occasions last season where he was double-teamed and was still able to knock both linemen over.
DT may not be a pressing need for the Dolphins since they franchise tagged DT Paul Solai, but there is still long term and depth uncertainty at the position. Some rumors have been thrown around that the Dolphins may trade down to get Baylor DT Phil Taylor in the first round, so trading up to get Fairley could make sense.
Why they would not make the trade?
Fairley's maturity issues are a major concern, thus why his draft stock is falling. Scouts say that he does not give a full effort all the time.
The Dolphins could decide that risk is not worth giving up valuable picks for.
Realistic chance of happening:
Fair chance of happening. If there was not the possible lack of free agency looming, then this trade is more likely. However, teams will be looking to address major needs in the draft just in case there is no free agency. DT is just not a major need for the Dolphins at this point.
The Dolphins Trade Up to Draft C Stefen Wisniewski
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What would the trade cost?
Wisniewski is probably going to be picked at the beginning of the third round with teams starved for offensive linemen like Buffalo, Arizona and Dallas at the top.
It would probably cost a swap of third-round picks and the Dolphins giving up a fourth or fifth-round pick.
Why they would make the trade?
Unlike many Dolphins fans, I am not thrilled about Richie Incognito moving to center. Adding a true center would make more sense.
To get Wisniewski in the third round would be a steal as it is, so giving up a pick to make sure to get him would be worth it.
The Dolphins could draft Mark Ingram in the first round, but without a solid offensive line, that pick would just go to waste.
Why they would not make the trade?
If the Dolphins select an offensive lineman in the first round then obviously this trade would never happen.
The Dolphins could also think that Wisniewski could fall to the mid-third round. Or the Dolphins could be content to draft a player like C Kristofer O'Dowd out of USC in the third round if Wisniewski is taken prior to the Dolphins' pick.
Realistic chance of happening:
Good chance. The cost would be fair and the need is pressing. The Dolphins offensive line needs a major boost.
The Dolphins Trade Up to Draft RB Daniel Thomas
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What would the trade cost?
A couple of months ago, Thomas probably could have been available for the Dolphins in the middle of the third round. Now, it looks like he is a late second-round pick.
The Cleveland Browns and Philadelphia Eagles pulled off a similar trade in the 2010 NFL draft. The Browns gave up their third-round pick and two fifth-round picks to move into the second round.
The New Orleans Saints would be a viable trade partner as they are lacking fifth and sixth-round picks.
Why they would make the trade?
Thomas is a big and strong RB. Not just for the measurable attributes, but watching him play he passes the "eye test."
He is a fierce runner and inflicts punishment when he runs.
With Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown on the way out, RB is a major need now for the Dolphins. If the Dolphins do not believe in Mark Ingram, then Thomas would be a good choice.
Why they would not make the trade?
Giving up draft picks to get a RB are not always the smartest decisions. The leading rusher in the NFL last season, Arian Foster, was an undrafted free agent.
Needless to say, you can find a RB without having to sacrifice a high draft pick on one.
Realistic chance of happening:
There is a good chance this can happen. The picks and trade partners match up. RB is a need for Miami. How much the Dolphins front office values a RB will determine if this trade would happen.
The Dolphins Trade Up to Draft TE Lance Kendricks
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What would the trade cost?
The majority of mock drafts have Kendricks going at the end of the fourth round. The Dolphins could take him with their earlier fourth-round pick, but the Dolphins may value someone else there and want to get another fourth to get Kendricks.
In the 2010 draft, the Oakland Raiders gave up a fifth-round pick and a player to get into the end of the fourth round. Since players cannot be traded, the Dolphins may be able to get away with giving up a fifth and one of their two seventh-round picks.
Why they would make the trade?
Miami Dolphins fans and many local Miami sports radio hosts (Dan LeBatard for one) are sick of watching Anthony Fasano at the TE position.
If you look at the top teams in the NFL, almost all of them have an athletic TE (Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark, Todd Heap). Kendricks would bring that major athletic upgrade to the Dolphins TE position.
Why they would not make the trade?
TE is not a major need and to give up draft picks for it may not be worth it.
Realistic chance of happening:
Good chance. The front office promised new excitement on offense and Kendricks brings that excitement. The price is not that steep either to get a guy who has Pro Bowl potential.
The Dolphins Trade Up to Draft QB Christian Ponder
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What would the trade cost?
The Dolphins would have to get up to the early half of the second round to have a shot at Ponder.
Not having a second-round pick, and not being able to trade players would make this difficult. The Dolphins would probably have to give up their third-round pick, fifth-round pick and next year's fourth-round pick.
Obviously, this scenario works better as a trade down scenario, but in case the Dolphins want to stay put at 15, this is a way to get up into the second round.
Why they would make the trade?
As discussed previously, the QB position is a need for the Dolphins.
When healthy, Ponder brings athleticism and a pretty good arm to the table. He has also impressed in his workouts and at the Senior Bowl.
If there is no free agency, then the draft is the only chance for the Dolphins to bring in some competition to push incumbent QB Chad Henne.
Why they would not make the trade?
Ponder has major injury concerns.
The Dolphins could also hold onto the picks and possibly bring in a late-round QB (like Ricky Stanzi from Iowa) to add QB depth.
Realistic chance of happening:
Slim chance. The price is steep and the Dolphins have too many other holes to fill to be able to give up that many draft picks. Also, just for sheer superstition, the Dolphins have not had the best of luck finding QBs in the second round (Pat White, Chad Henne).
Conclusion
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Now many of you may think all these scenarios are crazy.
If anything, the Dolphins will be looking to add picks and trade down. There is a really good chance that trading down will happen.
However, I will leave you with this thought.
GM Jeff Ireland and Coach Tony Sparano may have been given contract extensions, but it is no secret that they may only have one year to turn the ship around.
With that kind of pressure placed on a front office; crazy things can happen.
Ireland may have a "win now" attitude and risk the future in order to keep his job now. He may go for the whole thing in this draft and give up a bunch of picks and get his QB in the first round, his RB in the second round and his WR in the third round.
It sounds crazy, but when it comes to desperation and the Miami Dolphins, crazier things have happened (look no further than the contract extensions of Ireland and Sparano after going out to California to see if Jim Harbaugh would become the coach).
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